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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 29 at New York Giants 21. Final.
Giants -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Washington Commanders 29, Giants 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:26, 2nd and 4, on Mike Sainristil — 12.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:26 · 2nd and 4
Mike Sainristil
Commanders
(:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 21. 0-M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (13-J.Hyatt).
O 46.5 ✓
27°F
Giants closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 29–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:26, Commanders +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Noah BrownCommandersQ1 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (8-J.Holland).
9.6pts
Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommandersQ2 13:44(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Giants at 5 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 3 of 10 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 12 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Commanders166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 21. 0-M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (13-J.Hyatt).
Swing −12.6 for GiantsExpected points −3.34 for GiantsThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:26WAS +13% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 21. 0-M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (13-J.Hyatt).
2nd · 13:44NYG +11% win prob(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:46NYG +10% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 1:20WAS +9% win prob(1:20) 15-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined.
4th · 13:56NYG +8% win prob(13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:51WAS +8% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right end to WAS 20 for 5 yards (54-B.Wagner). PENALTY on NYG-61-J.Schmitz, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 20.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 46-yard field goal with 9:26 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:26Jake Moody·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–0
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Commanders: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.11Giants: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Commanders: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Giants: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 55 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Giants’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Giants 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
NYG's blitz rate sent, 53.8%, is past their previous high of 47.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.4% in week 14 against 22.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Giants19.2%
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 53.8%, 20.5 points above their season mean of 33.3% and 1.8 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Chris PaulG · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Josh Conerly Jr.T · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%61 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
87John BatesTE · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
1Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
74Brandon ColemanG · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
26Jeremy McNicholsRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Rotational48%29 snaps
83Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
13Treylon BurksWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational16%10 snaps
80Colson YankoffTE · Situational13%8 snaps
71Andrew WylieG · Situational11%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jonathan JonesCBDrake JacksonDEJayden DanielsQBChris Rodriguez Jr.RBGeorge FantTTrent ScottT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q1 11:46 · Commanders · 3rd & 10 at WAS 43 · gained 28 · +3.06 EP · +13.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 82 yards from the NYG 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
43%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0558%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0944%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1546%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3550%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.4220%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Commanders3Giants0
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Giants 28
No good8 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Commanders 33
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Giants 31
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 18
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Commanders9Giants0
Commanders10Giants0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Giants 16
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 39
Commanders13Giants0
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Giants 21
Commanders13Giants6
Commanders13Giants7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Commanders 12
The period ended7 plays
Commanders19Giants7
Touchdown7 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Commanders 35
Commanders22Giants7
Field goal2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Commanders22Giants13
Commanders22Giants14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Commanders 18
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 36
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 25
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 43
The period ended13 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Commanders 25
4th quarter48 plays
No good1 play
Commanders28Giants14
Commanders29Giants14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Giants 41
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Commanders 1
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Giants 45
Commanders29Giants20
Commanders29Giants21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Giants 39
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Commanders 38
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
