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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta26
BY 7final margin
CardinalsArizona19
Atlanta Falcons 26 at Arizona Cardinals 19. Final.
Falcons -2.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Atlanta Falcons 26, Cardinals 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:23, 3rd and 8, on Elijah Higgins — 14.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:23 · 3rd and 8
Elijah Higgins
Cardinals
(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
Dome
Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Atlanta Falcons 26–19. Biggest swing: Q3 5:23, Cardinals +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle PittsFalconsQ2 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.4pts
C.J. HendersonFalconsQ4 1:30(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
14.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Falcons162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
Swing +14.3 for CardinalsExpected points +3.01 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 10 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:23ARI +14% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
4th · 1:30ATL +14% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 0:29ARI +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:50ARI +13% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-M.Wilson (37-C.Bryant). Arizona challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:46ATL +12% win prob(3:46) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
4th · 2:14ATL +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 40-yard field goal with 7:29 left in the 3rd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:51Chad Ryland·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap A.Brewer+30–3
4th4:41Chad Ryland·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap A.Brewer+326–19
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryCardinals
Falcons5–3Cardinals
348Total yards320
4.9Yards per play5.7
41%Success rate38%
50%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays7
21First downs15
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Falcons: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.00Cardinals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Falcons: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.09Cardinals: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 71 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Cardinals 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, −12.0 pts, is past their previous low of −2.1 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.8 times their own weekly swing below their number.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals11.1%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.0 pts, 15.7 points below their season mean of 3.7 pts and 2.8 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%77 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%77 snaps
64Ryan NeuzilC · Every snap100%77 snaps
18Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%77 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap99%76 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time87%67 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Heavy rotation74%57 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation70%54 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Heavy rotation70%54 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Heavy rotation69%53 snaps
87David SillsWR · Rotational42%32 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational40%31 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational25%19 snaps
19Chris BlairWR · Situational12%9 snaps
69Jack NelsonT · Situational4%3 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational3%2 snaps
83Deven ThompkinsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
81Dylan DrummondWR · Situational3%2 snaps
52Jovaughn GwynC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike HughesCBElijah GarciaDTJD BertrandILBNate CarterRBMichael JerrellTMalik HeathWRCasey WashingtonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Easton StickQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Every snap100%57 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%57 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time96%55 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time86%49 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Full-time81%46 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Heavy rotation75%43 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Heavy rotation63%36 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation53%30 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Heavy rotation51%29 snaps
89Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational44%25 snaps
66Demontrey JacobsT · Rotational40%23 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Rotational32%18 snaps
58Hayden ConnerG · Situational19%11 snaps
37Corey KinerRB · Situational16%9 snaps
45Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational14%8 snaps
49Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational12%7 snaps
80Steven SimsWR · Situational12%7 snaps
86Jalen BrooksWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Max MeltonCBElijah JonesCBDarren HallFSJalen ThompsonFSEvan BrownGParis Johnson Jr.T
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 1:30 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ATL 42 · gained nothing · -2.97 EP · −16.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 66 yards from the ATL 34 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39+0.1146%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1067%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.3885%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.4846%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.6083%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.6330%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2257%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Falcons0Cardinals3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Falcons 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Cardinals 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Falcons0Cardinals9
Falcons0Cardinals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Falcons 32
Falcons3Cardinals10
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Cardinals 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Falcons 46
2nd quarter50 plays
Falcons3Cardinals13
Field goal4 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 33
Falcons9Cardinals13
Falcons10Cardinals13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Cardinals 13
Falcons10Cardinals16
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Falcons 6
Falcons16Cardinals16
Touchdown18 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Falcons 32
3rd quarter32 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Falcons19Cardinals16
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Cardinals 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Falcons 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Cardinals 18
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons25Cardinals16
Falcons26Cardinals16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Cardinals 46
Falcons26Cardinals19
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Falcons 16
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Cardinals 39
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Falcons 42
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -2.5
Closing total
48.5
Falcons moneyline
-148
Cardinals moneyline
+124
Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Falcons 10 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Jonathan Gannon
(2:14) 69-J.Nelson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 56-D.Robinson).
2nd · 12:03ARI +9% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:32ARI +8% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ARI 26 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
