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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

26

Arizona Cardinals

19

ATL -2.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 26–19. Biggest swing: Q3 5:23, ARI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑ATL ↓
Q3 · 5:23ATL 19 — ARI 16ARI ball · 3rd & 8ATL 68%

(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 5:23ARI +14% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
  2. Q4 · 1:30ATL +14% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q2 · 0:29ARI +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 7:50ARI +13% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-M.Wilson (37-C.Bryant). Arizona challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:51ARI Field goal

    (12:51) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — ARI 3
  2. Q1 · 7:50ARI Touchdown

    (7:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-M.Wilson (37-C.Bryant). Arizona challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — ARI 10
  3. Q1 · 2:22ATL Field goal

    (2:22) 45-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — ARI 10
  4. Q2 · 13:32ARI Field goal

    (13:32) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — ARI 13
  5. Q2 · 12:03ATL Touchdown

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 10 — ARI 13
  6. Q2 · 5:06ARI Field goal

    (5:06) 38-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ATL 10 — ARI 16
  7. Q2 · 0:29ATL Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 16 — ARI 16
  8. Q3 · 7:29ATL Field goal

    (7:29) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 19 — ARI 16
  9. Q4 · 12:33ATL Touchdown

    (12:33) 18-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 26 — ARI 16
  10. Q4 · 4:41ARI Field goal

    (4:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ATL 26 — ARI 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsCardinals
Offensive plays7156
Total yards348 (edge)320
Yards per play4.95.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)-0.00
Success rate41% (edge)38%
Dropback rate51%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.120.09 (edge)
Third downs7/147/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)15
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers21 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

16/31, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

21/35, 197 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.1 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

16 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

16 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

7/11 for 92 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Elijah HigginsTE

7/8 for 91 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 408292:14Field goal +3
2ATLATL 3510262:53Interception
3ARIARI 456552:10Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 3512345:26Field goal +3
5ARIARI 259373:50Field goal +3
6ATLATL 355651:31Touchdown +7
7ARIARI 3514596:54Field goal +3
8ATLATL 4016604:37Touchdown +6
9ARIARI 305380:25Missed field goal
10ATLATL 3514497:35Field goal +3
11ARIARI 279473:43Missed field goal
12ATLATL 3413626:14Touchdown +7
13ARIARI 295-51:45Punt
14ATLATL 335263:23Fumble
15ARIARI 4710372:43Field goal +3
16ATLATL 357262:32Turnover on downs
17ARIARI 404230:42Interception
18ATLATL 37201:23End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 65 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins21/351972118.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier16794.90-0.1
Bijan Robinson16764.80-3.0
Kirk Cousins5-3-0.61-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Bijan Robinson71192132%3.7
Kyle Pitts7957126%8.9
Drake London3827024%-1.7
Darnell Mooney222406%1.7
Charlie Woerner11303%-0.3
David Sills01003%-0.6
Jake Matthews01003%-0.2
Tyler Allgeier11-603%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Divine Deablo420.002
David Onyemata230.000
Xavier Watts320.000
Kaden Elliss130.000
Dee Alford400.000
C.J. Henderson310.011
Jessie Bates210.001
Josh Woods210.000
Khalid Kareem110.000
Cobee Bryant110.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett16/31203112-2.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Michael Carter11655.900.0
Corey Kiner6325.301.5
Emari Demercado5306.000.0
Jacoby Brissett155.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Elijah Higgins7891028%6.6
Michael Wilson2352110%1.5
Trey McBride4827028%-2.5
Xavier Weaver221907%2.1
Marvin Harrison Jr.1314010%0.2
Michael Carter02007%-2.6
Emari Demercado01003%-1.1
Steven Sims01003%-0.6
Josiah Deguara01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akeem Davis-Gaither560.000
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson560.001
Budda Baker460.001
Cody Simon250.001
Darius Robinson150.000
Zaven Collins400.000
Garrett Williams120.000
Will Johnson120.002
Baron Browning300.000
Denzel Burke110.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
48.5
ATL moneyline
-148
ARI moneyline
+124

Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
ATL 10 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Jonathan Gannon