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Buffalo Bills 23, Browns 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:08, 4th and 2, on Shedeur Sanders — 11.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:08 · 4th and 2
Shedeur Sanders
Bills
(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
27°F · 16.6 mph
Bills closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:08, Bills +11.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malachi CorleyBrownsQ1 12:45(12:45) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 83-M.Corley to 50 for -6 yards. Lateral to 16-I.Bond pushed ob at BUF 23 for 27 yards (27-T.White).
9.2pts
Josh AllenBrownsQ4 2:53(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 8 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Browns at +0.13 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bills145 of 156 plays carry both curves
(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
Swing −11.2 for BrownsExpected points −3.71 for BrownsThe model had Browns 14 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:08BUF +11% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
1st · 12:45CLE +9% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 83-M.Corley to 50 for -6 yards. Lateral to 16-I.Bond pushed ob at BUF 23 for 27 yards (27-T.White).
4th · 2:53BUF +9% win prob(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
4th · 7:55BUF +8% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -13 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
4th · 2:01BUF +7% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right [50-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on CLE-12-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 15.
3rd · 10:47BUF +6% win prob(10:47) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 83-M.Corley INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Jones (97-J.Bosa) at CLE 26. 92-D.Jones to CLE 25 for 1 yard (56-L.Wypler; 44-H.Fannin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ty Johnson's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 12:57 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th8:50Andre Szmyt·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+323–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryBrowns
Bills4–4Browns
261Total yards294
5.4Yards per play4.6
54%Success rate47%
25%Third-down rate57%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays8
16First downs20
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Bills: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.10Browns: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Bills: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.26Browns: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Bills: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.13Browns: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 48 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Browns’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns outgained Bills 294-261 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's play-action rate, 37.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 33.3% in week 12.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 15.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns17.4%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.8%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 23.4% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%50 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%50 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%50 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%50 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Full-time96%48 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation70%35 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation68%34 snaps
85Jackson HawesTE · Heavy rotation64%32 snaps
14Tyrell ShaversWR · Heavy rotation58%29 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation56%28 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational48%24 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational38%19 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational32%16 snaps
18Brandin CooksWR · Situational24%12 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational22%11 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational16%8 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational4%2 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Larry OgunjobiDTJordan PhillipsDTDarnell SavageFSMatt PraterKTylan GrableTGabe DavisWRKeon ColemanWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mitchell TrubiskyQB
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
56Luke WyplerC · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%66 snaps
12Shedeur SandersQB · Full-time98%65 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Full-time86%57 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Rotational48%32 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational47%31 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational45%30 snaps
82Brenden BatesTE · Rotational42%28 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Rotational39%26 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
38Trayveon WilliamsRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
35Raheim SandersRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
70Zak ZinterG · Situational9%6 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Situational8%5 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational5%3 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Denzel WardCBMike Hall Jr.DTWyatt TellerGSam KamaraOLBDylan SampsonRBDavid NjokuTEJamari ThrashWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
Q4 2:53 · Bills · 4th & 1 at CLE 11 · gained nothing · -3.67 EP · −16.3% win probability
143 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
48%
Yards
553
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1036%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.3876%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.3173%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2436%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2638%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6317%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2950%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Bills0Browns6
Bills0Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Bills 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Bills6Browns7
Bills7Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Browns 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Bills 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Browns 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Bills13Browns7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 2
Bills13Browns10
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Bills 4
Bills19Browns10
Bills20Browns10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Browns 3
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 23
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 38
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 32
Bills23Browns10
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 23
Bills23Browns16
Bills23Browns17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Bills 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Browns 47
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bills23Browns20
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Bills 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 44
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 11
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
