2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Cleveland Browns

BUF -10.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓25°F · 16 mphBills closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:08, BUF +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:08BUF 23 — CLE 20CLE ball · 4th & 2BUF 81%

(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:08BUF +11% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
Q1 · 12:45CLE +9% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 83-M.Corley to 50 for -6 yards. Lateral to 16-I.Bond pushed ob at BUF 23 for 27 yards (27-T.White).
Q4 · 2:53BUF +9% win prob(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
Q4 · 7:55BUF +8% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -13 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:47CLE Touchdown
(10:47) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — CLE 7
Q1 · 7:58BUF Touchdown
(7:58) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — CLE 7
Q2 · 12:57BUF Touchdown
(12:57) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — CLE 7
Q2 · 5:41CLE Field goal
(5:41) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — CLE 10
Q2 · 2:27BUF Touchdown
(2:27) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — CLE 10
Q3 · 9:41BUF Field goal
(9:41) 32-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — CLE 10
Q3 · 1:39CLE Touchdown
(1:39) 70-Z.Zinter and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 44-H.Fannin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 23 — CLE 17
Q4 · 8:50CLE Field goal
(8:50) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — CLE 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Browns
Offensive plays	48	64
Total yards	261	294 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	54% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	48%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.13
Third downs	2/8	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Browns outgained Bills 294–261 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Shedeur SandersQB

20/29, 157 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.7 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12/19, 130 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.5 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

16 att, 117 yds, 2 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Raheim SandersRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Trayveon WilliamsRB

4/4 for 38 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

4/5 for 34 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 31	10	69	4:18	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 20	7	80	2:55	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 37	7	42	4:52	Interception
4	BUF	BUF 39	10	61	5:01	Touchdown +6
5	CLE	CLE 29	14	65	7:16	Field goal +3
6	BUF	BUF 32	9	68	3:15	Touchdown +7
7	CLE	CLE 40	5	-2	0:47	Defensive touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 14	4	-12	1:30	Punt
9	CLE	BUF 30	2	0	0:06	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 30	5	8	2:14	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 20	4	12	2:07	Interception
12	BUF	CLE 25	4	2	1:02	Field goal +3
13	CLE	CLE 33	16	67	8:01	Touchdown +7
14	BUF	BUF 31	8	36	3:06	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 34	8	43	4:44	Field goal +3
16	BUF	BUF 35	5	-12	1:41	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 36	4	-5	2:03	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	CLE 30	5	19	2:15	Turnover on downs
19	CLE	CLE 12	5	3	1:09	Punt
20	BUF	CLE 49	5	11	1:38	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	12/19	130	0	0	2	-8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	16	117	7.3	2	6.1
Josh Allen	7	17	2.4	0	0.9
Ty Johnson	3	16	5.3	1	2.2
Ray Davis	3	14	4.7	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	4	5	34	28%	-1.5
Jackson Hawes	2	2	26	11%	0.8
Tyrell Shavers	1	2	21	11%	-1.5
Ray Davis	2	2	20	11%	1.7
James Cook	1	2	17	11%	0.8
Dawson Knox	1	2	10	11%	-3.0
Josh Palmer	1	1	2	6%	-0.4
Brandin Cooks	0	1	0	6%	-0.7
Dalton Kincaid	0	1	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	6	5	0.5	1	1
Matt Milano	4	5	0.0	0	0
Cole Bishop	5	2	0.0	0	0
Terrel Bernard	1	5	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	2	3	0.0	0	0
Phidarian Mathis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0.0	0	1
Andre Jones Jr.	1	3	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	2	0.0	1	1
Dorian Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Shedeur Sanders	20/29	157	1	2	2	-11.7
Corey Bojorquez	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Shedeur Sanders	4	49	12.3	0	5.1
Raheim Sanders	11	42	3.8	0	1.8
Malachi Corley	3	30	10.0	0	1.3
Quinshon Judkins	8	22	2.8	0	-0.7
Trayveon Williams	3	17	5.7	0	1.5
Harold Fannin Jr.	1	1	1.0	1	0.7
Isaiah Bond	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trayveon Williams	4	4	38	0	15%	1.7
Harold Fannin Jr.	4	6	34	1	22%	0.5
Quinshon Judkins	5	6	29	0	22%	-3.3
Jerry Jeudy	3	4	12	0	15%	2.3
Malachi Corley	2	4	11	0	15%	-5.1
Cedric Tillman	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.6
Raheim Sanders	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
Brenden Bates	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Carson Schwesinger	5	9	1.0	0
Devin Bush	5	4	0.0	0
Ronnie Hickman Jr.	2	4	0.0	0
Myles Harden	3	1	0.0	1
Mohamoud Diabate	3	1	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	2	2	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	1	1	0.0	0
D'Angelo Ross	1	1	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -10.5
Closing total: 41.5
BUF moneyline: -575
CLE moneyline: +425

Bills closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BUF 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.