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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q4 5:08, 4th and 2, on Shedeur Sanders — 11.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:08, Bills +11.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:08 · 4th and 2
Shedeur Sanders
Bills
(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 8 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Browns at +0.13 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ty Johnson's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 12:57 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Ty Johnson2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+613–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryBrowns
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 48 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Browns’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Browns 4.
Browns outgained Bills 294-261 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's play-action rate, 37.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-2.0 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 48 snaps
Browns-2.7 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 88%
Tendencies room →Bills42.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 38 early downs
Browns55.1%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills30.4%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Browns37.8%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Bills66.7%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Bills29.7%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns30.4%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 41%
Tendencies room →Bills27.0%leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns17.4%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
CLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.8%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 23.4% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
20/29, 157 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-11.7 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
12/19, 130 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.5 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
4/4 for 38 yds, 0 TD
15% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Cook banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 26.4 | +13.7 | 56% | 48% | 11% | 0% | 16 car, 117 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 17 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Featured Receiver | 19.5 | +7.6 | 86% | 86% | 22% | 54% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Shedeur SandersQB · Starter QB | 11.2 | +0.7 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 157 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 49 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −3.0 | 39% | 41% | 22% | 0% | 8 car, 22 yd · 5/6, 29 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 9.5 | +3.5 | 30% | 43% | 15% | 0% | 3 car, 17 yd · 4/4, 38 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 7.6 | +3.5 | 32% | 43% | 0% | — | 3 car, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.4 | +1.0 | 48% | 61% | 28% | 7% | 4/5, 34 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 6.9 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 130 yd · 7 car, 17 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −1.1 | 45% | 38% | 15% | 0% | 3 car, 30 yd · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −6.3 | 30% | 14% | 4% | 6% | 11 car, 42 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Ray DavisRB · Receiving Back | 5.4 | +1.0 | 16% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 3 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.1 | 64% | 52% | 11% | 7% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.4 | 73% | 84% | 15% | 78% | 3/4, 12 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.4 | 58% | 65% | 11% | 31% | 1/2, 21 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.9 | 68% | 57% | 11% | 13% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +1.4 | 48% | 54% | 0% | — | 1 car, -1 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 47% | 49% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 70% | 74% | 6% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 24% | 30% | 6% | 25% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 38% | 52% | 6% | 18% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dillon GabrielQB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brenden BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 42% | 24% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
Q4 2:53 · Bills · 4th & 1 at CLE 11 · gained nothing · -3.67 EP · −16.3% win probability
143 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Browns6Bills0Browns7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bills6Browns7Bills7Browns7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
Bills13Browns7Bills13Browns10Bills19Browns10Bills20Browns10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Bills23Browns10Bills23Browns16Bills23Browns17How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Bills23Browns20How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12/19 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 16 | 117 | 7.3 | 2 | +6.1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Ty Johnson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 28% | −1.5 |
| Jackson Hawes | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 6 | 5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 20/29 | 157 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −11.7 |
| Corey Bojorquez | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_BUF_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 1 |
| +2.2 |
| Ray Davis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +0.8 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 11% | −1.5 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11% | +1.7 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −3.0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phidarian Mathis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Jones Jr. | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DaQuan Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 | +5.1 |
| Raheim Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Malachi Corley | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Trayveon Williams | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayveon Williams | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 15% | +1.7 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 22% | +0.5 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 22% | −3.3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 15% | +2.3 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −5.1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Brenden Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Wright | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Wypler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
