2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Miami Dolphins

CIN -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Cincinnati Bengals 45–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:35, MIA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:35CIN 7 — MIA 6MIA ball · 2nd & 9CIN 75%

(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:35MIA +12% win prob(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:43MIA +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample pushed ob at MIA 11 for 27 yards (20-J.Brooks) [25-T.Dodson].
Q2 · 2:30MIA +9% win prob(2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:57CIN +8% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 32 for -7 yards (92-Z.Sieler).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:02CIN Touchdown
(4:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — MIA 0
Q1 · 2:35MIA Touchdown
(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 6:06CIN Field goal
(6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — MIA 7
Q2 · 2:30MIA Touchdown
(2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — MIA 14
Q2 · 1:28CIN Touchdown
(1:28) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 17 — MIA 14
Q3 · 9:49CIN Touchdown
(9:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — MIA 14
Q3 · 8:37CIN Touchdown
(8:37) 30-C.Brown right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 31 — MIA 14
Q3 · 2:30CIN Touchdown
(2:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 38 — MIA 14
Q4 · 13:37CIN Touchdown
(13:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 45 — MIA 14
Q4 · 3:47MIA Touchdown
(3:47) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 5-J.Wright right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 45 — MIA 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Dolphins
Offensive plays	61	58
Total yards	407 (edge)	389
Yards per play	6.7	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	56% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	59%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.55 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/32, 309 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

20.6 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Quinn EwersQB

20/30, 260 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

4.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

15 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

12 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

9/11 for 109 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	8	7	2:50	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 14	7	33	4:12	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 9	8	91	4:01	Touchdown +7
4	MIA	MIA 35	5	65	1:32	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 35	5	8	2:32	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 12	8	26	3:10	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 20	11	58	5:42	Field goal +3
8	MIA	MIA 32	9	65	3:37	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 44	9	51	1:00	Touchdown +7
10	MIA	MIA 40	5	5	0:45	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 4	1	6	0:39	End of half
12	MIA	MIA 30	4	16	1:58	Fumble
13	CIN	MIA 34	7	34	3:19	Touchdown +7
14	MIA	MIA 31	4	0	0:24	Interception
15	CIN	MIA 35	3	35	0:47	Touchdown +7
16	MIA	MIA 25	7	28	3:13	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 47	7	53	2:54	Touchdown +7
18	MIA	MIA 26	2	0	0:13	Interception
19	CIN	CIN 48	8	52	3:40	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 31	5	10	2:10	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 46	4	6	2:12	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 3	10	97	5:27	Touchdown +7
23	CIN	CIN 31	5	6	1:56	Punt
24	MIA	MIA 4	7	44	1:47	End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 97 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/32	309	4	0	2	20.6
Joe Flacco	1/1	4	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Brown	12	66	5.5	1	2.3
Samaje Perine	7	25	3.6	1	1.8
Tahj Brooks	4	7	1.8	0	-1.7
Joe Burrow	2	6	3.0	0	2.0
Ke'Shawn Williams	1	1	1.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	9	11	109	0	35%	6.2
Tee Higgins	3	3	53	1	10%	5.1
Chase Brown	4	4	43	2	13%	6.1
Mike Gesicki	3	4	35	1	13%	4.5
Drew Sample	2	2	31	0	6%	2.7
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	21	0	3%	1.6
Samaje Perine	2	3	16	0	10%	0.7
Tanner Hudson	1	1	4	0	3%	-1.0
Cam Grandy	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Mitchell Tinsley	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	6	4	0	0
D.J. Ivey	3	2	0	1
Barrett Carter	1	4	1	2
Joe Giles-Harris	2	2	0	1
Jalen Davis	2	2	1	1
Daxton Hill	3	1	0	1
Myles Murphy	2	2	0	0
Demetrius Knight Jr.	3	1	0	0
Howard Cross III	1	2	0	0
DJ Turner II	3	0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Quinn Ewers	20/30	260	0	2	0	4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
De'Von Achane	15	81	5.4	1	-1.1
Jaylen Wright	9	35	3.9	1	-0.5
Malik Washington	1	9	9.0	1	2.5
Quinn Ewers	2	5	2.5	0	-3.6
Ollie Gordon II	1	-1	-1.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	5	9	72	31%	-1.8
Greg Dulcich	3	3	46	10%	-1.2
Darren Waller	3	5	40	17%	4.3
Theo Wease Jr.	2	4	32	14%	-2.8
Malik Washington	1	1	23	3%	1.8
Jaylen Wright	1	2	18	7%	1.6
Cedrick Wilson Jr.	1	1	11	3%	0.8
De'Von Achane	3	3	9	10%	-1.5
Alec Ingold	1	1	9	3%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	5	9	0.0	1
Tyrel Dodson	5	3	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	3	3	0.0	1
Dante Trader Jr.	2	3	0.0	0
Jason Marshall Jr.	3	2	0.0	0
Kenneth Grant	0	4	0.5	0
Bradley Chubb	1	3	0.0	0
Jack Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	1	2	1.0	0
Chop Robinson	0	3	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 48.5
CIN moneyline: -205
MIA moneyline: +170

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 66 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CIN 7 days · MIA 6 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike McDaniel