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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati45
BY 24final margin
DolphinsMiami21
Cincinnati Bengals 45 at Miami Dolphins 21. Final.
Bengals -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals 45, Dolphins 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:35, 2nd and 9, on De'Von Achane — 12.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:35 · 2nd and 9
De'Von Achane
Dolphins
(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Cincinnati Bengals 45–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:35, Dolphins +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malik WashingtonDolphinsQ2 2:30(2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1pts
Drew SampleBengalsQ2 1:43(1:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample pushed ob at MIA 11 for 27 yards (20-J.Brooks) [25-T.Dodson].
11.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 2 of 10 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bengals155 of 162 plays carry both curves
(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.0 for DolphinsExpected points +4.53 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 15 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:35MIA +12% win prob(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:43MIA +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample pushed ob at MIA 11 for 27 yards (20-J.Brooks) [25-T.Dodson].
2nd · 2:30MIA +9% win prob(2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:57CIN +8% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 32 for -7 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
2nd · 0:48MIA +7% win prob(:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-82-D.Eskridge.
2nd · 4:05MIA +6% win prob(4:05) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle to CIN 36 for 17 yards (20-D.Turner). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), recovered by MIA-30-A.Ingold at CIN 37. 30-A.Ingold to CIN 34 for 3 yards (20-D.Turner).
2nd · 2:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Samaje Perine's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:28 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:02Tee Higgins·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–0
Bengals ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Bengals: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.06Dolphins: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Bengals: +0.55 expected points added per play
+0.04Dolphins: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Bengals: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 61 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 58 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Dolphins 3.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
CIN's play-action rate, 30.6%, is past their previous high of 25.8% in week 3 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 15.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.3 pts in week 15 against +5.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins11.1%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 2.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Achane left+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:35 · Dolphins · 2nd & 9 at CIN 48 · gained 48 · +4.53 EP · +14.7% win probability
153 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 97 yards from the MIA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
50%
Yards
796
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.5354%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.3562%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2570%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0050%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1038%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2857%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1467%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 39
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 48
Bengals6Dolphins0
Bengals7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Dolphins 9
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bengals7Dolphins6
Bengals7Dolphins7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Bengals 48
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Dolphins 38
Bengals10Dolphins7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Dolphins 23
Bengals10Dolphins13
Bengals10Dolphins14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Bengals 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Bengals16Dolphins14
Bengals17Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Dolphins 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 36
Bengals23Dolphins14
Bengals24Dolphins14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Dolphins 9
Intercepted4 plays
Bengals30Dolphins14
Bengals31Dolphins14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 12
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 47
Bengals37Dolphins14
Bengals38Dolphins14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Dolphins 5
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Dolphins 27
4th quarter37 plays
Bengals44Dolphins14
Bengals45Dolphins14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 17
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 36
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Dolphins 48
Bengals45Dolphins20
Bengals45Dolphins21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Dolphins 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
