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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers163 of 174 plays carry both curves
(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +40.9 for BearsExpected points +4.52 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:57CHI +41% win prob(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 9:15CHI +26% win prob(9:15) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to CHI 45 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard) [50-G.Jarrett].
4th · 0:28CHI +22% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:12GB +18% win prob(7:12) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 3 for 1 yard (26-N.Wright; 90-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-N.Wright), touched at CHI 3, RECOVERED by CHI-49-T.Edmunds at CHI 2.
4th · 1:59GB +16% win prob8-C.Santos kicks onside 12 yards from CHI 35 to CHI 47, impetus ends at CHI 47. RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell. GB-87-R.Doubs was injured during the play.
Overtime · 5:38CHI +15% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to GB 46 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 29-X.McKinney).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DJ Moore's 46-yard touchdown catch with 4:57 left in overtime put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd12:49Brandon McManus·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
2nd1:45Brandon McManus·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–0
3rd12:17Cairo Santos·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+36–3
3rd0:39Romeo Doubs·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Malik Willisfrom Malik Willis+713–3
4th10:57Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+313–6
4th5:06Brandon McManus·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+316–6
4th2:04Cairo Santos·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+316–9
Bears ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.10Bears: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Packers: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.24Bears: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Packers: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 68 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bears’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Bears 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's play-action rate turned over: 40.6% in week 15 against 21.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.1% in week 15 against 39.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 35.7% in week 15 against 12.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears12.9%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteCHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.9%, 17.0 points below their season mean of 29.9% and 1.5 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Williams pass+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 4:57 · Bears · 1st & 10 at GB 46 · gained 46 · +4.52 EP · +40.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 91 yards from the GB 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
48%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1448%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.0272%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.0748%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.069%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.4525%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0040%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Bears 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Packers 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Bears 43
2nd quarter46 plays
Packers3Bears0
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bears 5
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Packers 40
Packers6Bears0
Field goal20 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Bears 4
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Packers 45
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Packers6Bears3
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Packers 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 2 to the Bears 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers12Bears3
Packers13Bears3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Bears 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Packers13Bears6
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Packers 23
Packers16Bears6
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Bears 10
Packers16Bears9
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Packers 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers16Bears15
Packers16Bears16
Touchdown11 plays
The period ended3 plays
Overtime13 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Bears 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Packers16Bears22
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Packers 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
