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2025 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 20, 2025 · Soldier Field

Green Bay Packers

16

Chicago BearsWinner

22

CHI -1.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 22–16. Biggest swing: OT 4:57, CHI +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CHI ↑GB ↓
OT · 4:57GB 16 — CHI 22CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 59%

(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:57CHI +41% win prob(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. OT · 9:15CHI +26% win prob(9:15) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to CHI 45 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard) [50-G.Jarrett].
  3. Q4 · 0:28CHI +22% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 7:12GB +18% win prob(7:12) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 3 for 1 yard (26-N.Wright; 90-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (26-N.Wright), touched at CHI 3, RECOVERED by CHI-49-T.Edmunds at CHI 2.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 12:49GB Field goal

    (12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — CHI 0
  2. Q2 · 1:45GB Field goal

    (1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 6 — CHI 0
  3. Q3 · 12:17CHI Field goal

    (12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 6 — CHI 3
  4. Q3 · 0:39GB Touchdown

    (:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-11-J.Reed, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — CHI 3
  5. Q4 · 10:57CHI Field goal

    (10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 13 — CHI 6
  6. Q4 · 5:06GB Field goal

    (5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — CHI 6
  7. Q4 · 2:04CHI Field goal

    (2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — CHI 9
  8. Q4 · 0:28CHI Touchdown

    (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 16 — CHI 16
  9. OT · 4:57CHI Touchdown

    (4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — CHI 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBears
Offensive plays6860
Total yards386400 (edge)
Yards per play5.76.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.10 (edge)
Success rate50% (edge)47%
Dropback rate46%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21-0.12 (edge)
Third downs6/12 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)99
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)18
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

19/34, 250 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Malik WillisQB

9/11, 121 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +20.3% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Emanuel WilsonRB

14 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

13 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

DJ MooreWR

5/7 for 97 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

5/6 for 84 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 4710315:13Turnover on downs
2CHICHI 810885:56Turnover on downs
3GBGB 2214736:06Field goal +3
4CHICHI 378183:11Punt
5GBGB 516767:53Field goal +3
6CHICHI 356200:56Punt
7GBGB 8200:45End of half
8CHICHI 347382:48Field goal +3
9GBGB 3510625:15Fumble
10CHICHI 25192:42Punt
11GBGB 367693:42Touchdown +7
12CHICHI 2011574:41Field goal +3
13GBGB 3711385:49Field goal +3
14CHICHI 3212433:04Field goal +3
15GBCHI 4710531:35Touchdown +7
16GBGB 272-60:24Turnover on downs
17GBGB 217433:50Turnover on downs
18CHICHI 364641:20Touchdown +6

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Malik Willis9/111211027.5
Jordan Love8/13770000.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Emanuel Wilson14825.903.6
Malik Willis10444.402.6
Josh Jacobs12363.00-9.6
Savion Williams294.500.1
Jordan Love273.500.3
Jayden Reed166.000.2
Matthew Golden242.00-0.6
Chris Brooks144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs5684125%8.2
Luke Musgrave3338013%3.4
Jayden Reed3335013%1.2
Christian Watson2617025%-4.7
Josh Jacobs221208%0.8
Dontayvion Wicks221208%1.3
Matthew Golden01004%-0.6
John FitzPatrick01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker490.001
Javon Bullard550.001
Isaiah McDuffie150.000
Nate Hobbs330.000
Xavier McKinney330.001
Edgerrin Cooper210.000
Brenton Cox Jr.120.000
Jordon Riley200.000
Carrington Valentine110.000
Colby Wooden110.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams19/342502005.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift13584.50-0.9
Kyle Monangai9505.60-2.5
Caleb Williams33010.003.1
DJ Moore11212.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DJ Moore5797124%5.5
Kyle Monangai3443014%2.1
Olamide Zaccheaus2533017%-0.3
Colston Loveland3530017%-0.6
Jahdae Walker2321110%4.9
Cole Kmet2314010%-0.6
D'Andre Swift221207%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards550.500
Kevin Byard540.000
Nahshon Wright350.000
Jaquan Brisker260.000
Austin Booker430.500
Grady Jarrett340.001
Tremaine Edmunds150.000
Montez Sweat231.000
Jaylon Johnson400.000
Gervon Dexter Sr.210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -1.5
Closing total
45.5
GB moneyline
-102
CHI moneyline
-118

Bears closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 38 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
GB 6 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Ben Johnson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.