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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
JaguarsJacksonville34
BY 14final margin
BroncosDenver20
Jacksonville Jaguars 34 at Denver Broncos 20. Final.
Broncos -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 34, Broncos 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:55, 3rd and 3, on Parker Washington — 12.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:55 · 3rd and 3
Parker Washington
Jaguars
(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (6-P.Locke; 49-A.Singleton).
O 46.5 ✓
Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 34–20. Biggest swing: Q3 4:55, Jaguars +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wil LutzJaguarsQ1 5:15(5:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. ** Injury Update: JAX-6-G.Newsome has returned to the game.
10.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ2 11:26(11:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (51-V.Miller).
11.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 14 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Jaguars172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (6-P.Locke; 49-A.Singleton).
Swing −12.7 for BroncosExpected points −4.91 for BroncosThe model had Jaguars 5 points higher than the market did.play 116
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:55DEN +13% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (6-P.Locke; 49-A.Singleton).
2nd · 11:26DEN +12% win prob(11:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (51-V.Miller).
1st · 5:15JAX +11% win prob(5:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. ** Injury Update: JAX-6-G.Newsome has returned to the game.
2nd · 12:51DEN +10% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:55DEN +9% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at DEN 24 for 20 yards (6-P.Locke).
3rd · 13:11DEN +9% win prob(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:46 left in the 3rd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th13:38Cam Little·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+334–17
4th10:47Wil Lutz·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+334–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBroncos
Jaguars4–4Broncos
346Total yards445
5.1Yards per play6.8
37%Success rate45%
53%Third-down rate36%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays8
19First downs19
5Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.03Broncos: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Jaguars: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.00Broncos: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Jaguars: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos outgained Jaguars 445-346 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 72.9%, is past their previous high of 65.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 15.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 32.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Broncos32.6%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.9%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 56.0% and 2.4 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
70Cole Van LanenT · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%70 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
3Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
73Robert HainseyC · Full-time81%57 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Rotational30%21 snaps
80Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Rotational27%19 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
60Jonah MonheimC · Situational19%13 snaps
64Wyatt MilumG · Situational14%10 snaps
5Dyami BrownWR · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 5
Danny StriggowDEMaason SmithDTBhayshul TutenRBChuma EdogaTHunter LongTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Harvey right+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:11 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at JAX 38 · gained 38 · +3.18 EP · +16.6% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
791
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1575%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2678%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2250%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.100%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 35
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 15
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 43
No good11 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Jaguars 26
Jaguars6Broncos0
Jaguars7Broncos0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Broncos 12
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jaguars7Broncos6
Jaguars7Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 15
Punt5 plays
Jaguars7Broncos10
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Jaguars 34
Jaguars13Broncos10
Jaguars14Broncos10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Broncos 3
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Jaguars 46
Jaguars17Broncos10
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Broncos 29
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars17Broncos16
Jaguars17Broncos17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Jaguars 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jaguars23Broncos17
Jaguars24Broncos17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Broncos 1
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 35 to midfield
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Jaguars30Broncos17
Jaguars31Broncos17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Broncos 10
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 29
4th quarter55 plays
Jaguars34Broncos17
Field goal5 plays
Jaguars34Broncos20
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Jaguars 3
Punt5 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Jaguars 41
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 46
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Broncos 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 2 to the Broncos 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Jaguars moneyline
+145
Broncos moneyline
-175
Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Sean Payton
2nd · 1:55
DEN +8% win prob
(1:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. ** Injury Update: DEN-52-J.Elliss has returned to the game.
2nd · 6:03DEN +8% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end to DEN 3 for 24 yards (99-Z.Allen).
