For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

34

Denver Broncos

20

DEN -3.5 upsetO 46.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 34–20. Biggest swing: Q3 4:55, DEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑JAX ↓
Q3 · 4:55JAX 24 — DEN 17JAX ball · 3rd & 3JAX 71%

(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (6-P.Locke; 49-A.Singleton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:55DEN +13% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (6-P.Locke; 49-A.Singleton).
  2. Q2 · 11:26DEN +12% win prob(11:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (51-V.Miller).
  3. Q1 · 5:15JAX +11% win prob(5:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. ** Injury Update: JAX-6-G.Newsome has returned to the game.
  4. Q2 · 12:51DEN +10% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 0:12JAX Touchdown

    (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — DEN 0
  2. Q2 · 12:51DEN Touchdown

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — DEN 7
  3. Q2 · 9:14DEN Field goal

    (9:14) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — DEN 10
  4. Q2 · 4:37JAX Touchdown

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — DEN 10
  5. Q2 · 0:02JAX Field goal

    (:02) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — DEN 10
  6. Q3 · 13:11DEN Touchdown

    (13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — DEN 17
  7. Q3 · 7:46JAX Touchdown

    (7:46) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — DEN 17
  8. Q3 · 4:01JAX Touchdown

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 1-T.Etienne for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 31 — DEN 17
  9. Q4 · 13:38JAX Field goal

    (13:38) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 34 — DEN 17
  10. Q4 · 10:47DEN Field goal

    (10:47) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: JAX 34 — DEN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBroncos
Offensive plays6865
Total yards346445 (edge)
Yards per play5.16.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.03
Success rate37%45% (edge)
Dropback rate63%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.27 (edge)0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23-0.15 (edge)
Third downs8/15 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps1919
Sacks taken51 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Broncos outgained Jaguars 445–346 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

28/47, 352 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.3 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/36, 279 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

7 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

6/10 for 145 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 14.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/12 for 86 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 29551:35Punt
2DENDEN 84121:35Punt
3JAXJAX 41402:06Punt
4DENDEN 1311614:33Missed field goal
5JAXJAX 3411515:04Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 357702:21Touchdown +7
7JAXJAX 285-161:30Punt
8DENDEN 325322:06Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 4110594:37Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 248302:45Punt
11JAXJAX 139581:48Field goal +3
12DENDEN 276531:59Touchdown +7
13JAXJAX 2511495:17Touchdown +7
14DENDEN 356121:41Punt
15JAXJAX 205802:07Touchdown +7
16DENDEN 166181:55Fumble
17JAXDEN 347273:25Field goal +3
18DENDEN 328652:52Field goal +3
19JAXJAX 33501:16Punt
20DENDEN 195401:20Interception
21JAXJAX 307163:54Punt
22DENDEN 208352:02Turnover on downs
23JAXJAX 456170:34Punt
24DENDEN 25171:38End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence23/362793059.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne16503.10-4.3
Trevor Lawrence6203.313.0
LeQuint Allen Jr.4102.50-1.3
Jakobi Meyers111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington610145129%14.2
Jakobi Meyers4845023%-0.7
Brenton Strange5739120%1.0
Brian Thomas Jr.231809%0.8
Travis Etienne4516114%-0.6
Tim Patrick111103%0.6
Quintin Morris11503%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun650.000
Devin Lloyd330.001
Eric Murray410.000
Jourdan Lewis220.001
Montaric Brown310.002
BJ Green II211.000
Jarrian Jones300.011
Greg Newsome II300.000
Yasir Abdullah110.000
Antonio Johnson200.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix28/473521110.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
RJ Harvey7507.112.5
Jaleel McLaughlin5377.401.6
Bo Nix4112.80-6.4
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton61286126%0.8
RJ Harvey4571011%3.7
Troy Franklin4566011%2.9
Pat Bryant5842017%-0.3
Evan Engram243609%0.4
Marvin Mims Jr.332607%-1.6
Adam Trautman231407%-1.0
Lil'Jordan Humphrey12904%1.3
Tyler Badie13207%-3.0
Nate Adkins01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton490.000
D.J. Jones341.001
P.J. Locke420.000
Riley Moss511.002
Ja'Quan McMillian410.000
Talanoa Hufanga310.001
Jonah Elliss220.000
Dre Greenlaw120.000
Dondrea Tillman210.000
Que Robinson120.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Closing total
46.5
JAX moneyline
+145
DEN moneyline
-175

Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
62°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
JAX 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Sean Payton