For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Kansas City Chiefs 9 at Tennessee Titans 26. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Tennessee Titans 26, Chiefs 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:43, 2nd and 7, on Chig Okonkwo — 11.2 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:43 · 2nd and 7
Chig Okonkwo
Titans
(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 37.5 ✓
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:43, Titans +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavier WorthyChiefsQ3 5:37(5:37) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to TEN 7 for 28 yards (40-K.Hall).
9.6pts
Chris OladokunTitansQ3 4:05(4:05) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun sacked at TEN 11 for -7 yards (92-J.Harrell). FUMBLES (92-J.Harrell), recovered by KC-65-T.Smith at TEN 14.
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 2 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Chiefs at 1 of 9 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Chiefs156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.2 for TitansExpected points +3.19 for TitansThe model had Titans 17 points higher than the market did.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:43TEN +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:05KC +11% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun sacked at TEN 11 for -7 yards (92-J.Harrell). FUMBLES (92-J.Harrell), recovered by KC-65-T.Smith at TEN 14.
3rd · 5:37TEN +10% win prob(5:37) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to TEN 7 for 28 yards (40-K.Hall).
2nd · 13:19TEN +10% win prob(13:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-38-K.Knowles at KC 6. 38-K.Knowles to KC 6 for no gain (54-D.Mausi). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.
3rd · 12:14TEN +9% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 17-C.Dike pushed ob at KC 12 for 30 yards (8-K.Fulton) [90-C.Omenihu].
3rd · 13:36TEN +8% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 5-E.Ayomanor to KC 44 for 25 yards (35-J.Watson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chig Okonkwo's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:43 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:09Jeffery Simmons·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–2
2nd7:45Harrison Butker·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+33–2
4th3:47Joey Slye·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+39–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryTitans
Chiefs0–8Titans
133Total yards378
3.1Yards per play5.6
35%Success rate44%
11%Third-down rate56%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays10
8First downs20
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Chiefs: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Chiefs: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.23Titans: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Chiefs: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 43 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Titans’s 68 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 1, Titans 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.3% in week 15 against 16.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans16.1%
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.0%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 2.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Hunt up−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:09) 29-K.Hunt up the middle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-J.Simmons).
Q2 13:09 · Chiefs · 1st & 11 at KC 2 · lost 2 · -1.37 EP · −10.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 89 yards from the TEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
509
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2860%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.4473%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.3513%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1273%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1355%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2643%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0929%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Chiefs 44
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 48
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 29
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Titans 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs0Titans2
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 43
Chiefs3Titans2
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Titans 36
Chiefs3Titans8
Chiefs3Titans9
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs6Titans9
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Titans 23
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Chiefs6Titans15
Chiefs6Titans16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chiefs 1
No good7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Titans 33
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Titans 41 to midfield
Chiefs9Titans16
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Titans 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Chiefs 42
4th quarter44 plays
Chiefs9Titans22
Chiefs9Titans23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 4
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 21
Chiefs9Titans26
Field goal19 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
