2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Nissan Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee TitansWinner

KC -3.5 upsetU 37.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:43, TEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:43KC 3 — TEN 8TEN ball · 2nd & 7TEN 54%

(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:43TEN +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:05KC +11% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun sacked at TEN 11 for -7 yards (92-J.Harrell). FUMBLES (92-J.Harrell), recovered by KC-65-T.Smith at TEN 14.
Q3 · 5:37TEN +10% win prob(5:37) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to TEN 7 for 28 yards (40-K.Hall).
Q2 · 13:19TEN +10% win prob(13:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-38-K.Knowles at KC 6. 38-K.Knowles to KC 6 for no gain (54-D.Mausi). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:09TEN Safety
(13:09) 29-K.Hunt up the middle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-J.Simmons).
Score after this play: KC 0 — TEN 2
Q2 · 7:45KC Field goal
(7:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 3 — TEN 2
Q2 · 1:43TEN Touchdown
(1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 3 — TEN 9
Q2 · 0:10KC Field goal
(:10) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 6 — TEN 9
Q3 · 10:35TEN Touchdown
(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 17-C.Dike for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 6 — TEN 16
Q3 · 3:04KC Field goal
(3:04) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 9 — TEN 16
Q4 · 12:00TEN Touchdown
(12:00) 2-T.Spears left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 9 — TEN 23
Q4 · 3:47TEN Field goal
(3:47) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: KC 9 — TEN 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Titans
Offensive plays	43	68
Total yards	133	378 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	35%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	1/9	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

21/28, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Chris OladokunQB

11/16, 111 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

21 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Elic AyomanorWR

3/4 for 58 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

5/5 for 53 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 28	5	8	2:13	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 32	5	24	2:49	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 45	4	3	1:33	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 5	11	47	6:05	Punt
5	KC	KC 6	7	18	2:36	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 42	4	-1	1:35	Punt
7	KC	KC 3	1	-2	0:03	Safety
8	TEN	KC 48	5	5	1:27	Punt
9	KC	KC 36	9	28	3:59	Field goal +3
10	TEN	TEN 11	13	89	6:03	Touchdown +7
11	KC	KC 32	8	45	1:31	Field goal +3
12	TEN	—	1	0	0:06	End of half
13	TEN	TEN 25	11	75	4:28	Touchdown +7
14	KC	KC 25	7	42	2:50	Missed field goal
15	TEN	TEN 41	4	9	1:20	Turnover on downs
16	KC	50	6	19	3:22	Field goal +3
17	TEN	TEN 36	12	54	6:04	Touchdown +7
18	KC	KC 16	5	-9	1:55	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 34	13	72	6:17	Field goal +3
20	KC	KC 35	5	-19	1:57	Punt
21	TEN	KC 45	3	4	1:47	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chris Oladokun	11/16	111	0	0	4	-5.8
Gardner Minshew	3/8	15	0	0	0	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	8	34	4.3	1.0
Gardner Minshew	1	8	8.0	-0.5
Chris Oladokun	2	7	3.5	-1.0
Kareem Hunt	3	2	0.7	-1.2
Xavier Worthy	1	0	0.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	6	7	41	32%	-0.7
Xavier Worthy	2	3	41	14%	3.2
Marquise Brown	3	3	22	14%	0.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	4	12	18%	-4.2
Travis Kelce	1	4	6	18%	-3.2
Brashard Smith	1	1	4	5%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Drue Tranquill	2	8	0.0
Nick Bolton	4	6	1.0
Kristian Fulton	6	3	0.0
Bryan Cook	3	6	0.0
Jaylen Watson	3	4	0.0
Chamarri Conner	6	0	1.0
Ashton Gillotte	1	4	0.0
Jack Cochrane	2	3	0.0
Zacch Pickens	3	1	0.0
Jaden Hicks	4	0	0.0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Ward	21/28	228	2	0	2	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	21	102	4.9	0	0.6
Tyjae Spears	13	52	4.0	1	-0.1
Cam Ward	4	9	2.3	0	-4.2
Julius Chestnut	1	1	1.0	0	0.5
Kalel Mullings	1	0	0.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Elic Ayomanor	3	4	58	0	15%	5.6
Tyjae Spears	5	5	53	0	19%	3.4
Chig Okonkwo	6	8	44	1	30%	2.6
Chimere Dike	3	5	40	1	19%	1.5
Van Jefferson	2	2	24	0	7%	2.6
Gunnar Helm	2	3	9	0	11%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
James Williams	8	1	1.0	0
Kemon Hall	5	0	0.0	0
Kendell Brooks	1	3	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	1	2	0.0	0
Truman Jones	2	1	1.5	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	1	0.0	2
Jalyn Armour-Davis	1	1	0.0	0
T'Vondre Sweat	1	1	0.0	0
Cody Barton	1	1	0.0	1
Sebastian Joseph-Day	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 37.5
KC moneyline: -185
TEN moneyline: +154

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 35 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: KC 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Brian Callahan