For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q3 14:13, 2nd and 8, on Quentin Johnston — 14.5 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:13, Chargers +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:13 · 2nd and 8
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.77 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Herbert's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:22 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryCowboys
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Cowboys 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LAC's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.1 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
DAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.4% in week 15 against 48.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers1.0 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their 0.8 pts, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 61 snaps
Cowboys0.2 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chargers48.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 58.6%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 50 early downs
Cowboys59.1%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 47%
Tendencies room →Chargers27.3%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cowboys25.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Chargers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±19.7 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys66.7%inside their normal wobble · +13.8 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chargers8.3%leaned — sat back · −17.1 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±15.1 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys48.5%leaned — sent pressure · +21.3 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chargers8.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys15.2%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
DAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.5%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 27.2% and 1.8 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
23/29, 300 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
23.7 expected points added · +18.8% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
21/30, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.8 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
7/9 for 130 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added
Receiving · LAC
4/5 for 104 yds, 1 TD
18% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Quentin Johnston banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 30.2 | +7.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/29, 300 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +7.2 | 88% | 97% | 28% | 38% | 7/9, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.4 | +8.4 | 58% | 73% | 18% | 43% | 4/5, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +0.4 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 244 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | +3.0 | 55% | 48% | 7% | 1% | 16 car, 85 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +2.3 | 75% | 94% | 21% | 22% | 4/6, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −0.8 | 86% | 94% | 22% | 15% | 6/7, 51 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +5.2 | 40% | 36% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +1.2 | 47% | 52% | 18% | 11% | 5/5, 44 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +1.4 | 45% | 52% | 18% | 13% | 4/5, 54 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −2.8 | 57% | 61% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 34 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.9 | 22% | 27% | 11% | 5% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.4 | 69% | 78% | 13% | 8% | 3/4, 19 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −6.2 | 31% | 28% | 13% | 24% | 2 car, 13 yd · 2/4, 14 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 2.4 | −0.9 | 14% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/2, 14 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 2.3 | −1.6 | 34% | 28% | 0% | — | 8 car, 23 yd |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +1.0 | 22% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 59% | 70% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 1.4 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kimani VidalRB | 1.1 | −1.1 | 33% | 45% | 0% | — | 5 car, 11 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 36% | 31% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Joe Milton IIIQB | -0.9 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Q3 14:13 · Chargers · 2nd & 8 at LAC 26 · gained 50 · +4.22 EP · +14.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 87 yards from the LAC 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Chargers0
Cowboys6Chargers0Cowboys7Chargers6Cowboys7Chargers7Cowboys7Chargers7Cowboys10Chargers13Cowboys10Chargers14Cowboys10Chargers14Cowboys16Chargers14Cowboys17Chargers20Cowboys17Chargers21Cowboys17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers24Cowboys17Chargers27Cowboys17Chargers33Cowboys17Chargers34Cowboys17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/29 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +23.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Hassan Haskins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 5 | 104 | 1 | 18% | +8.7 |
| Tre Harris | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daiyan Henley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.8 |
| Joe Milton III | 2/2 | 11 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_LAC_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +4.3 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 18% | +5.3 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 21% | +1.5 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +2.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derwin James | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Malik Davis | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Joe Milton III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 9 | 130 | 1 | 28% | +10.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 22% | +2.0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 6% | +4.1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Wilson | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar James | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Houston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
