For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Chargers150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Swing −14.5 for CowboysExpected points −4.22 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:13DAL +14% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
3rd · 2:18LAC +11% win prob(2:18) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (91-D.Hand; 99-J.Caldwell).
2nd · 9:50DAL +10% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:14DAL +10% win prob(8:14) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:59DAL +10% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (20-C.Hart). DAL-56-C.Beebe was injured during the play.
3rd · 5:09DAL +9% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to LAC 25 for 18 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 2-E.Molden).
4th · 14:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Herbert's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:22 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:25Ryan Flournoy·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–7
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Chargers: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.77Chargers: +0.77 expected points added per play
+0.22Cowboys: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Chargers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.30Cowboys: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Cowboys 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.1 points.
DAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.4% in week 15 against 48.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys15.2%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteDAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.5%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 27.2% and 1.8 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Q3 14:13 · Chargers · 2nd & 8 at LAC 26 · gained 50 · +4.22 EP · +14.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 87 yards from the LAC 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
792
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1362%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.8577%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR9-0.0122%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7738%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6-0.110%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.140%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0240%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chargers0Cowboys6
Chargers0Cowboys7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Chargers 5
Chargers6Cowboys7
Chargers7Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Cowboys 23
The period ended14 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Chargers 14
2nd quarter46 plays
Chargers7Cowboys10
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 5
Chargers13Cowboys10
Chargers14Cowboys10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Cowboys 25
Chargers14Cowboys16
Chargers14Cowboys17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Chargers 38
Chargers20Cowboys17
Chargers21Cowboys17
Touchdown20 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Chargers24Cowboys17
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Cowboys 19
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 41
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 26
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Chargers 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chargers 29
4th quarter44 plays
Chargers27Cowboys17
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Chargers 49
Chargers33Cowboys17
Chargers34Cowboys17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 5
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
