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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · AT&T Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

34

Dallas Cowboys

17

DAL -1.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:13, DAL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑LAC ↓
Q3 · 14:13LAC 21 — DAL 17LAC ball · 2nd & 8LAC 60%

(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 14:13DAL +14% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
  2. Q3 · 2:18LAC +11% win prob(2:18) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (91-D.Hand; 99-J.Caldwell).
  3. Q2 · 9:50DAL +10% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 8:14DAL +10% win prob(8:14) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:25DAL Touchdown

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — DAL 7
  2. Q1 · 6:48LAC Touchdown

    (6:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — DAL 7
  3. Q2 · 14:07DAL Field goal

    (14:07) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — DAL 10
  4. Q2 · 9:50LAC Touchdown

    (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — DAL 10
  5. Q2 · 8:14DAL Touchdown

    (8:14) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — DAL 17
  6. Q2 · 0:22LAC Touchdown

    (:22) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — DAL 17
  7. Q3 · 11:55LAC Field goal

    (11:55) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 24 — DAL 17
  8. Q4 · 9:00LAC Field goal

    (9:00) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — DAL 17
  9. Q4 · 4:52LAC Touchdown

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 34 — DAL 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersCowboys
Offensive plays6156
Total yards454 (edge)340
Yards per play7.4 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)0.03
Success rate57% (edge)48%
Dropback rate54%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.77 (edge)0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.30
Third downs7/11 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)17
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

23/29, 300 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

23.7 expected points added · +18.8% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/30, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.8 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Omarion HamptonRB

16 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

8 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

George PickensWR

7/9 for 130 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

4/5 for 104 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 2112794:40Touchdown +7
2LACLAC 358653:37Touchdown +7
3DALDAL 2917667:39Field goal +3
4LACLAC 139874:19Touchdown +7
5DALDAL 206651:37Touchdown +7
6LACLAC 1918817:49Touchdown +7
7DALDAL 25310:19End of half
8LACLAC 247573:09Field goal +3
9DALDAL 208212:47Punt
10LACLAC 17491:39Punt
11DALDAL 199705:10Turnover on downs
12LACLAC 1614958:18Field goal +3
13DALDAL 337182:00Turnover on downs
14LACDAL 467462:09Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 354180:48Fumble
16LACDAL 426143:27Turnover on downs
17DALDAL 30120:33End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert23/2930020023.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Omarion Hampton16855.312.3
Justin Herbert8425.31-0.6
Hassan Haskins4143.50-0.0
Kimani Vidal5112.20-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quentin Johnston45104118%8.7
Tre Harris4554018%4.3
Keenan Allen5544018%5.3
Ladd McConkey4643121%1.5
Will Dissly3328011%2.1
Omarion Hampton121007%0.4
KeAndre Lambert-Smith111004%1.8
Oronde Gadsden II11704%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tony Jefferson440.000
Benjamin St-Juste330.001
Daiyan Henley420.000
Denzel Perryman420.001
Derwin James510.000
Del'Shawn Phillips310.000
Tuli Tuipulotu221.000
Troy Dye120.000
Marcus Williams210.000
Hassan Haskins110.000

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott21/3024420112.8
Joe Milton III2/2110000.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams9343.80-0.4
Malik Davis8232.90-2.1
Dak Prescott2147.00-0.2
KaVontae Turpin2136.500.7
Joe Milton III177.00-5.4
Hunter Luepke100.00-4.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens79130128%10.5
CeeDee Lamb6751022%2.0
Jake Ferguson3419013%0.8
Ryan Flournoy221816%4.1
KaVontae Turpin2414013%-1.9
Hunter Luepke121406%1.8
Javonte Williams23909%-0.8
Jonathan Mingo01003%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shavon Revel Jr.710.001
Donovan Wilson160.000
Malik Hooker420.000
Trevon Diggs420.000
Logan Wilson410.000
Shemar James410.000
Kenny Clark220.000
Reddy Steward210.000
James Houston210.000
Kenneth Murray, Jr.120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Closing total
50.5
LAC moneyline
+102
DAL moneyline
-122

Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
LAC 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Brian Schottenheimer