For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 18, 2025 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles Rams

37

Seattle SeahawksWinner

38

SEA -1.5 no coverO 42.5 ✓17 mph wind

Seattle Seahawks 38–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:13, SEA +47% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4SEA ↑LA ↓
OT · 3:13LA 37 — SEA 38SEA ballSEA 53%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 3:13SEA +47% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  2. OT · 3:17LA +38% win prob(3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. OT · 6:27LA +30% win prob92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
  4. Q4 · 2:11LA +25% win prob(2:11) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:13SEA Touchdown

    (7:13) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — SEA 7
  2. Q1 · 1:45LA Field goal

    (1:45) 92-H.Mevis 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 7
  3. Q2 · 12:49LA Field goal

    (12:49) 92-H.Mevis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SEA 7
  4. Q2 · 3:47LA Touchdown

    (3:47) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 18-T.Ferguson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 7
  5. Q3 · 13:06SEA Touchdown

    (13:06) 9-K.Walker right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 14
  6. Q3 · 8:40LA Field goal

    (8:40) 92-H.Mevis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 16 — SEA 14
  7. Q3 · 6:34LA Touchdown

    (6:34) 22-B.Corum left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 23 — SEA 14
  8. Q4 · 13:36LA Touchdown

    (13:36) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 30 — SEA 14
  9. Q4 · 8:18SEA Touchdown

    (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LA 30 — SEA 20
  10. Q4 · 8:03SEA Two-point

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 10-C.Kupp is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: LA 30 — SEA 22
  11. Q4 · 6:30SEA Touchdown

    (6:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 88-A.Barner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LA 30 — SEA 30
  12. OT · 6:36LA Touchdown

    (6:36) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-P.Nacua for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 37 — SEA 30
  13. OT · 3:17SEA Touchdown

    (3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LA 37 — SEA 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsSeahawks
Offensive plays8865
Total yards581 (edge)421
Yards per play6.6 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.24 (edge)0.03
Success rate44%49% (edge)
Dropback rate58%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.50 (edge)-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.110.37 (edge)
Third downs8/20 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2424
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

29/49, 457 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

26.1 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

22/34, 270 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-2.7 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

11 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

23 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

12/16 for 225 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 17.3 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/13 for 96 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 2911325:10Turnover on downs
2SEASEA 396612:41Touchdown +7
3LALA 2413755:26Field goal +3
4SEASEA 35590:45Punt
5LALA 128833:13Field goal +3
6SEASEA 35572:21Punt
7LALA 3812626:41Touchdown +7
8SEASEA 3510433:00Fumble
9LALA 20350:43End of half
10SEASEA 356652:03Touchdown +7
11LALA 278664:20Field goal +3
12SEASEA 356222:03Interception
13LASEA 1210:04Touchdown +7
14SEASEA 358282:58Punt
15LALA 1510854:58Touchdown +7
16SEASEA 359593:55Interception
17LALA 11441:36Defensive touchdown
18LALA 22531:01Punt
19SEASEA 433590:39Touchdown +8
20LALA 26571:36Punt
21SEASEA 23461:28Punt
22LALA 207461:12Missed field goal
23SEASEA 384-70:25Punt
24LALA 128371:00Punt
25SEASEA 15350:42Turnover on downs
26LALA 2010753:33Touchdown +7
27SEASEA 3511623:14Touchdown +8

11 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford29/4945730026.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams23703.00-3.2
Blake Corum14483.41-0.9
Matthew Stafford263.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua1216225233%17.3
Xavier Smith225704%6.1
Konata Mumpfield3840017%-0.8
Davis Allen2534010%-1.0
Terrance Ferguson343318%3.0
Colby Parkinson242108%0.6
Jordan Whittington111902%2.4
Kyren Williams3615013%-1.0
Blake Corum121304%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Omar Speights430.000
Josh Wallace600.011
Nate Landman231.000
Kam Curl230.000
Poona Ford311.000
Byron Young220.000
Jared Verse130.500
Kamren Kinchens310.000
Cobie Durant210.000
Kobie Turner121.512

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold22/34270224-2.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III111009.114.0
Zach Charbonnet9323.612.7
Rashid Shaheed13131.001.8
Sam Darnold372.300.4
AJ Barner111.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba81396142%0.4
Kenneth Walker III3364010%3.2
AJ Barner4649119%2.8
Cooper Kupp3439013%-1.7
Zach Charbonnet4422013%-0.1
Rashid Shaheed01003%-8.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drake Thomas670.000
Ernest Jones480.000
Nick Emmanwori740.000
Devon Witherspoon540.000
DeMarcus Lawrence360.001
Julian Love350.000
Coby Bryant140.000
Byron Murphy II140.000
Josh Jobe220.002
Leonard Williams220.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Closing total
42.5
LA moneyline
+102
SEA moneyline
-122

Seahawks closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 75 — over by 32.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 17 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
LA 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Mike Macdonald

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.