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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 37 at Seattle Seahawks 38. Final.
Seahawks -1.5 no coverO 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Seattle Seahawks 38, Rams 37 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:13, on Eric Saubert — 47.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:13
Eric Saubert
Seahawks
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
21.5 mph wind
Seahawks closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 38–37 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:13, Seahawks +47.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 21.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
47.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksOT 6:2792-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
30.0pts
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaRamsOT 3:17(3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
38.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.50 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams199 of 215 plays carry both curves
OT · 3:13Rams 37 — Seahawks 38SEA ballSEA 53%
Rams 47%Seahawks 53%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Swing +47.5 for SeahawksExpected points +1.05 for SeahawksThe model had Rams 6 points higher than the market did.play 212
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:13SEA +47% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Overtime · 3:17LA +38% win prob(3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 6:27LA +30% win prob92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
4th · 2:11LA +25% win prob(2:11) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
3rd · 6:44LA +24% win prob(6:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace at LA 43. 30-J.Wallace to SEA 1 for 56 yards (9-K.Walker).
Overtime · 4:29SEA +22% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp ran ob at LA 16 for 21 yards.
4th · 2:41
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 4-yard touchdown catch with 3:17 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th13:36Puka Nacua·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+730–14
4th8:18Rashid Shaheed·58-yd return TD58-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point good+830–22
4th6:30AJ Barner·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold · two-point good+830–30
Overtime6:36Puka Nacua·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+737–30
Overtime3:17Jaxon Smith-Njigba·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold · two-point goodLead never changed again+837–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams6–2Seahawks
581Total yards421
6.6Yards per play6.5
44%Success rate49%
40%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays8
24First downs24
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers3
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.50Rams: +0.50 expected points added per play
−0.17Seahawks: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Rams: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.37Seahawks: +0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 88 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Seahawks 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Seahawks7.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 64.7%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 47.8% and 1.7 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
S.Darnold pass+53% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
OT 3:13 · Seahawks · — at LA 2 · gained 2 · +1.05 EP · +53.2% win probability
197 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 215 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 209. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 89 yards from the LA 11 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
215 of 215 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
215
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
1002
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR54+0.1544%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.3274%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.4068%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.9060%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1244%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
215 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
215 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Seahawks 39
Rams0Seahawks6
Rams0Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Rams 4
Rams3Seahawks7
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 44
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Seahawks 34
2nd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Rams6Seahawks7
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 5
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 37
Rams12Seahawks7
Rams13Seahawks7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Seahawks 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 25
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Rams13Seahawks13
Rams13Seahawks14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams16Seahawks14
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Seahawks 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 48
Rams22Seahawks14
Rams23Seahawks14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 38
4th quarter63 plays
Rams29Seahawks14
Rams30Seahawks14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 6
Rams30Seahawks20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 15
Rams30Seahawks22
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 25
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Rams30Seahawks28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Rams30Seahawks30
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Rams 26
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 33
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 40
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 28
Overtime27 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams36Seahawks30
Rams37Seahawks30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Seahawks 41
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Rams37Seahawks36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Rams37Seahawks38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -1.5
Closing total
42.5
Rams moneyline
+102
Seahawks moneyline
-122
Seahawks closed -1.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 75 — over by 32.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a real wind at 22 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Rams 4 days · Seahawks 4 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Mike Macdonald
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 21.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
SEA +20% win prob
(2:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 18-T.Ferguson to SEA 46 for 27 yards (39-T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-39-T.Okada, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
3rd · 13:06SEA +19% win prob(13:06) 9-K.Walker right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
