For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 23, Raiders 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 9:53, 3rd and 6, on Ashton Jeanty — 15.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:53 · 3rd and 6
Ashton Jeanty
Raiders
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -14.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 9:53, Raiders +15.0% win probability on one snap.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek Stingley Jr.TexansQ1 10:53(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.6pts
C.J. StroudTexansQ4 4:06(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 7 - No Play.
11.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Raiders at 3 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Raiders156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.0 for TexansExpected points −6.35 for TexansThe model had Raiders 15 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:53HOU +15% win prob(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:53LV +14% win prob(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:06HOU +11% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 7 - No Play.
4th · 5:34HOU +10% win prob(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:19LV +8% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 12, and recovers at HOU 6.
3rd · 3:14HOU +7% win prob(3:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal with 3:14 left in the 3rd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Raiders: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Raiders: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Raiders: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.51Texans: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Texans’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Texans 2.
NoteRaiders outgained Texans 315-272 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.7 points.
LV's blitz rate sent turned over: 13.6% in week 15 against 27.8% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans11.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteLV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 54.5 points below their season mean of 54.5% and 1.6 times their own 34.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:53 · Raiders · 3rd & 6 at LV 40 · gained 60 · +6.35 EP · +19.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 85 yards from the LV 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
585
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0767%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29-0.0455%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.6344%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4029%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Raiders0Texans6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 30
Raiders0Texans7
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 24
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 44
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 17
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 41
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Raiders6Texans7
Raiders7Texans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 7
Raiders7Texans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Raiders 37
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 45
Raiders7Texans13
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Raiders 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 38
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Raiders13Texans13
Raiders14Texans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 40
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Raiders14Texans16
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Raiders 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 45
4th quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Texans 46
Raiders14Texans22
Raiders14Texans23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Raiders 1
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders20Texans23
Raiders21Texans23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 49
The period ended17 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Raiders 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
