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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q3 9:53, 3rd and 6, on Ashton Jeanty — 15.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 9:53, Raiders +15.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:53 · 3rd and 6
Ashton Jeanty
Raiders
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Raiders at 3 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal with 3:14 left in the 3rd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Ka'imi Fairbairn49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.BrinkmanLead never changed again+314–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Texans’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Texans 2.
Raiders outgained Texans 315-272 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
LV's blitz rate sent turned over: 13.6% in week 15 against 27.8% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-13.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.0 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 53 snaps
Texans-1.5 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders41.0%leaned — ran early · −16.9 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 39 early downs
Texans52.3%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders26.9%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Texans16.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 144%
Fourth Down room →Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −54.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −23.8 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±24.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Raiders27.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans15.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders11.1%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Texans11.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
LV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 54.5 points below their season mean of 54.5% and 1.6 times their own 34.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
16/23, 201 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.7 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
23/35, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.9 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ashton Jeanty banked 18.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 31.8 | +18.2 | 93% | 88% | 9% | 14% | 24 car, 128 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +4.0 | 71% | 83% | 15% | 9% | 5/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +6.1 | 98% | 100% | 23% | 10% | 5/5, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 14.0 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 201 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Jawhar JordanRB · Committee Back | 12.0 | −2.9 | 46% | 36% | 15% | 1% | 15 car, 53 yd · 5/5, 17 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/35, 187 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 0 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | −5.7 | 80% | 83% | 26% | 52% | 4/9, 59 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +0.6 | 100% | 100% | 23% | 23% | 2 car, 11 yd · 4/5, 43 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −1.0 | 62% | 61% | 15% | 13% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.9 | 72% | 69% | 14% | 19% | 2/3, 43 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB | 5.2 | +0.5 | 32% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 6 car, 33 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.4 | 51% | 36% | 9% | 2% | 2/3, 7 yd |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.4 | 54% | 64% | 9% | 15% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.4 | 67% | 69% | 14% | 20% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 1.9 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 28% | 31% | 9% | 13% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.6 | 49% | 39% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 17% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.9 | −0.7 | 18% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, -3 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| British BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Carter RunyonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:53 · Raiders · 3rd & 6 at LV 40 · gained 60 · +6.35 EP · +19.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 85 yards from the LV 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Raiders0
Texans6Raiders0Texans7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Raiders6Texans7Raiders7Texans7Raiders7Texans10Raiders7Texans13How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders13Texans13Raiders14Texans13Raiders14Texans16Raiders14Texans22Raiders14Texans23How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Raiders20Texans23Raiders21Texans23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/23 | 201 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 | −4.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Raheem Mostert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 1 | 2 | 60 | 1 | 9% | −1.6 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Chinn |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/35 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_LV_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -14.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| +4.6 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 14% | +2.0 |
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 23% | +4.2 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −0.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Alex Bachman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darien Porter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 | −6.9 |
| Nick Chubb | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 26% | +1.7 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 15% | +3.7 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15% | −0.4 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tommy Togiai | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
