2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -14.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -14.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 9:53, HOU +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:53LV 13 — HOU 13LV ball · 3rd & 6HOU 89%

(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:53HOU +15% win prob(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:53LV +14% win prob(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:06HOU +11% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 7 - No Play.
Q4 · 5:34HOU +10% win prob(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:53HOU Touchdown
(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — HOU 7
Q2 · 12:30LV Touchdown
(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — HOU 7
Q2 · 9:17HOU Field goal
(9:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LV 7 — HOU 10
Q2 · 0:54HOU Field goal
(:54) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LV 7 — HOU 13
Q3 · 9:53LV Touchdown
(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 14 — HOU 13
Q3 · 3:14HOU Field goal
(3:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LV 14 — HOU 16
Q4 · 7:44HOU Touchdown
(7:44) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 14 — HOU 23
Q4 · 5:34LV Touchdown
(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 21 — HOU 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Texans
Offensive plays	53	59
Total yards	315 (edge)	272
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	38% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	49%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	6/14	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Raiders outgained Texans 315–272 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

16/23, 201 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

23/35, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

24 att, 128 yds, 1 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Jawhar JordanRB

15 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

4/9 for 59 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Tre TuckerWR

4/5 for 43 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 29	5	0	0:34	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 24	7	14	2:27	Punt
3	LV	LV 21	3	9	1:16	Defensive touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	6	19	2:33	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 18	4	6	1:02	Punt
6	LV	LV 20	6	20	3:54	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 16	4	-1	2:09	Punt
8	LV	LV 39	8	61	3:40	Touchdown +7
9	HOU	HOU 28	8	35	3:13	Field goal +3
10	LV	LV 25	8	17	3:53	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 11	11	62	4:29	Field goal +3
12	LV	LV 31	5	7	0:31	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 30	2	11	0:19	End of half
14	HOU	HOU 30	5	12	1:48	Punt
15	LV	LV 15	7	85	3:28	Touchdown +7
16	HOU	HOU 30	5	-8	2:08	Punt
17	LV	LV 29	4	-7	1:35	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 47	5	22	2:53	Field goal +3
19	LV	LV 20	10	39	4:33	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 12	11	59	5:54	Touchdown +7
21	LV	LV 35	7	65	2:17	Touchdown +7
22	HOU	HOU 17	12	60	5:24	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	16/23	201	2	1	3	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	24	128	5.3	1	-4.5
Tre Tucker	2	11	5.5	0	0.4
Raheem Mostert	1	6	6.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	1	2	60	1	9%	-1.6
Tre Tucker	4	5	43	0	23%	4.6
Jack Bech	2	3	43	0	14%	2.0
Brock Bowers	5	5	33	1	23%	4.2
Michael Mayer	1	3	10	0	14%	-0.9
Tyler Lockett	1	2	6	0	9%	-2.0
Raheem Mostert	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.5
Alex Bachman	1	1	3	0	5%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Devin White	7	4	1
Elandon Roberts	1	7	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	4	0
Isaiah Pola-Mao	5	2	0
Maxx Crosby	3	3	0
Jonah Laulu	2	2	0
Eric Stokes	1	2	1
Jamal Adams	2	1	0
Darien Porter	2	1	0
Tonka Hemingway	2	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	23/35	187	1	0	0	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jawhar Jordan	15	53	3.5	-6.9
Nick Chubb	6	33	5.5	-1.7
C.J. Stroud	4	0	0.0	-5.8
Dare Ogunbowale	1	-3	-3.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	4	9	59	0	26%	1.7
Christian Kirk	3	5	37	0	15%	0.3
Dalton Schultz	5	5	35	1	15%	3.7
Jawhar Jordan	5	5	17	0	15%	-0.4
Jayden Higgins	1	3	17	0	9%	-0.8
Nick Chubb	1	1	9	0	3%	1.0
Cade Stover	2	3	7	0	9%	0.5
Xavier Hutchinson	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.5
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Calen Bullock	3	6	0.0	0	0
Kamari Lassiter	4	4	0.0	0	2
Tommy Togiai	2	5	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	1	5	0.0	0	0
Jalen Pitre	5	1	0.0	0	1
Myles Bryant	3	1	0.0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	1	3	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	1	2	1.0	0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	2	0	1.0	0	0
Derek Stingley Jr.	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -14.5
Closing total: 39.5
LV moneyline: +900
HOU moneyline: -1600

Texans closed -14.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: LV 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs DeMeco Ryans