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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 4, on J.J. McCarthy — 17.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 4
J.J. McCarthy
Giants
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play.
Minnesota Vikings 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Giants +17.5% win probability on one snap.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.17 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.92 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Will Reichard's 30-yard field goal with 4:18 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Will Reichard30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+316–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryGiants
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.92 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 55 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Giants’s 48 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Giants 2.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, −25.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate, 25.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 27.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-6.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.5 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 55 snaps
Giants-25.9 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −20.8 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−2.35× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 83%
Tendencies room →Vikings45.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.4 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 42 early downs
Giants25.7%off script — ran early · −25.5 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−2.16× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Vikings24.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Giants15.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Vikings33.3%right on their number · +5.9 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Giants75.0%leaned — went for it · +21.8 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±19.0 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 77%
Tendencies room →Vikings57.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Giants34.5%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Vikings31.6%leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Giants31.0%leaned — got home · +15.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -25.9 pts, 20.8 points below their season mean of -5.0 pts and 2.3 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 4 inactive
Inactive · 4
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
9/14, 108 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
7/9, 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.5 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
6/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 3.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | +3.4 | 95% | 93% | 35% | 47% | 6/8, 85 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.3 | −3.5 | 64% | 48% | 13% | 0% | 21 car, 85 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −1.6 | 62% | 58% | 15% | 0% | 16 car, 71 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | +1.6 | 52% | — | 0% | — | 9/14, 108 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −1.2 | 38% | 32% | 8% | 0% | 11 car, 47 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −4.0 | 98% | 89% | 46% | 80% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/6, 19 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.7 | 67% | 66% | 13% | 40% | 2/3, 26 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.2 | 52% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Zavier ScottRB | 2.2 | −0.1 | 13% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 2.1 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.4 | 79% | 84% | 15% | 23% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Max BrosmerQB | 1.8 | −0.6 | 48% | — | 0% | — | 7/9, 52 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Tai FeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 75% | 79% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | 33% | 31% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 0.0 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 33 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 62% | 79% | 9% | 19% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 96% | 95% | 15% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 46% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play.
Q2 0:25 · Vikings · 2nd & 4 at MIN 41 · lost 14 · -7.73 EP · −24.7% win probability
143 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 64 yards from the MIN 23 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Giants0How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Vikings3Giants3How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Vikings6Giants3Vikings12Giants3Vikings13Giants3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Vikings13Giants9Vikings13Giants10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Vikings13Giants13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Vikings16Giants13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 9/14 | 108 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −8.3 |
| Max Brosmer | 7/9 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Jordan Mason |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 35% | +8.3 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 7 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Ward | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 7/13 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 5 | −17.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_MIN_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Zavier Scott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Max Brosmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 13% | −1.5 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −6.3 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Wilson | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 71 |
| 4.4 |
| 0 |
| −2.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jaxson Dart | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 46% | −3.2 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 15% | +2.4 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 15% | −1.3 |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −4.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Golston | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Abdul Carter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
