2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

New York Giants

MIN -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓20 mph windVikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Minnesota Vikings 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, MIN +17% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:25MIN 13 — NYG 9MIN ball · 2nd & 4MIN 86%

(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:25MIN +17% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play.
Q4 · 2:05MIN +15% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q4 · 15:00NYG +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 40 for -12 yards (55-E.Wilson). PENALTY on MIN-55-E.Wilson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 48 - No Play.
Q4 · 9:44NYG +12% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson ran ob at MIN 45 for 21 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:54MIN Field goal
(10:54) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — NYG 0
Q2 · 11:08NYG Field goal
(11:08) 30-B.Sauls 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — NYG 3
Q2 · 4:53MIN Field goal
(4:53) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — NYG 3
Q2 · 2:09MIN Touchdown
(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — NYG 3
Q2 · 0:25NYG Touchdown
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — NYG 10
Q4 · 11:10NYG Field goal
(11:10) 30-B.Sauls 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: MIN 13 — NYG 13
Q4 · 4:18MIN Field goal
(4:18) 16-W.Reichard 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 16 — NYG 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Giants
Offensive plays	55	48
Total yards	243 (edge)	141
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	2.9
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.38
Success rate	49% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	53%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.92
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

9/14, 108 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Max BrosmerQB

7/9, 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

21 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

2/3 for 26 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 40	10	35	4:11	Field goal +3
2	NYG	NYG 35	9	35	5:33	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	MIN 15	7	24	3:35	Interception
4	NYG	MIN 44	12	35	5:37	Field goal +3
5	MIN	MIN 23	12	55	6:14	Field goal +3
6	NYG	NYG 29	4	0	1:11	Interception
7	MIN	NYG 16	4	26	1:38	Touchdown +7
8	NYG	NYG 30	5	6	1:08	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 35	2	-8	0:36	Defensive touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 35	2	0	0:17	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 31	6	11	3:52	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 13	10	53	5:41	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 25	14	54	9:21	Field goal +3
14	MIN	MIN 31	15	47	6:51	Field goal +3
15	NYG	NYG 34	7	0	2:17	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	NYG 39	5	11	1:58	End of game

6 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 55 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
J.J. McCarthy	9/14	108	0	1	3	-8.3
Max Brosmer	7/9	52	0	0	1	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	21	85	4.0	0	2.8
J.J. McCarthy	2	20	10.0	1	3.8
Jordan Mason	2	5	2.5	0	-0.4
Zavier Scott	2	4	2.0	0	-0.2
C.J. Ham	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Max Brosmer	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	8	85	35%	8.3
Jordan Addison	2	3	26	13%	0.1
Josh Oliver	2	3	19	13%	0.8
Aaron Jones	2	3	8	13%	-1.5
Zavier Scott	1	1	8	4%	0.9
Jordan Mason	1	1	6	4%	0.0
Tai Felton	1	1	6	4%	1.3
T.J. Hockenson	1	1	2	4%	-0.4
Jalen Nailor	0	2	0	9%	-6.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Cashman	7	9	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	4	4	1.0	0
Jay Ward	2	4	0.0	0
Levi Drake Rodriguez	1	4	1.0	0
Eric Wilson	1	3	1.0	0
Jalen Redmond	1	3	1.0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	2	1.0	1
Isaiah Rodgers	3	0	0.0	1
Harrison Smith	2	0	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	1	1	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jaxson Dart	7/13	33	0	1	5	-17.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	16	71	4.4	-2.2
Devin Singletary	11	47	4.3	0.8
Jaxson Dart	2	7	3.5	0.5
Wan'Dale Robinson	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Wan'Dale Robinson	3	6	19	46%	-3.2
Darius Slayton	1	2	8	15%	2.4
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	2	2	7	15%	-1.3
Theo Johnson	0	2	0	15%	-4.4
Devin Singletary	1	1	-1	8%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	7	6	0.0	0	1
Jevon Holland	5	2	0.0	0	0
Dane Belton	4	2	0.0	0	0
Tyler Nubin	4	2	0.0	0	1
Chauncey Golston	4	2	1.0	0	0
Brian Burns	2	2	2.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	3	0.0	0	0
Andru Phillips	2	1	0.0	0	0
Abdul Carter	1	1	1.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 41.5
MIN moneyline: -148
NYG moneyline: +124

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 20 mph
Referee: Alex Moore
Rest: MIN 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Brian Daboll

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.