2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -3.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 3:02, BAL +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:02NE 21 — BAL 24NE ball · 4th & 2BAL 77%

(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:02BAL +22% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 · 2:15BAL +21% win prob(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:57NE +18% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
Q2 · 0:23NE +11% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BAL 37 for -7 yards (29-A.Washington). FUMBLES (29-A.Washington) [29-A.Washington], RECOVERED by BAL-41-D.Jones at BAL 32. 41-D.Jones to BAL 32 for no gain (65-G.Bradbury).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:26BAL Touchdown
(12:26) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 11:22NE Touchdown
(11:22) 77-B.Brown and 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BAL 7
Q2 · 5:44NE Field goal
(5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 10 — BAL 7
Q2 · 1:07BAL Field goal
(1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: NE 10 — BAL 10
Q3 · 7:47NE Field goal
(7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 13 — BAL 10
Q3 · 4:43BAL Touchdown
(4:43) 4-Z.Flowers right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — BAL 17
Q4 · 12:53BAL Touchdown
(12:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — BAL 24
Q4 · 9:07NE Touchdown
(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — BAL 24
Q4 · 2:15NE Touchdown
(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 28 — BAL 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Ravens
Offensive plays	68	53
Total yards	459 (edge)	331
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	53% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	75%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.07
Third downs	4/12	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

31/44, 380 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

14.7 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

7/10, 101 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 128 yds, 2 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

8 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Stefon DiggsWR

9/10 for 138 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 12.6 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

7/7 for 84 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 35	7	65	2:39	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 36	11	45	5:51	Interception
3	BAL	BAL 4	9	64	4:47	Fumble
4	NE	NE 32	11	68	5:26	Touchdown +7
5	BAL	BAL 35	5	1	0:56	Punt
6	NE	NE 25	9	48	4:42	Field goal +3
7	BAL	BAL 35	12	47	4:36	Field goal +3
8	NE	NE 35	7	33	0:44	Fumble
9	BAL	BAL 32	1	0	0:19	End of half
10	NE	NE 30	5	4	0:57	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 33	6	29	3:25	Missed field goal
12	NE	NE 46	6	32	2:55	Field goal +3
13	BAL	BAL 35	8	54	3:08	Touchdown +7
14	NE	NE 25	8	36	2:42	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	NE 44	8	53	4:03	Touchdown +7
16	NE	NE 27	8	73	3:49	Touchdown +8
17	BAL	BAL 31	8	18	3:59	Punt
18	NE	NE 11	10	89	2:55	Touchdown +7
19	BAL	BAL 32	3	0	0:19	Fumble
20	NE	BAL 36	6	31	1:48	End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 89 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	31/44	380	2	1	3	14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	51	6.4	1	2.9
Drake Maye	10	25	2.5	0	-4.3
TreVeyon Henderson	5	3	0.6	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	10	138	0	24%	12.6
Mack Hollins	7	9	69	0	21%	4.1
Kyle Williams	2	3	46	1	7%	2.7
Hunter Henry	6	7	35	1	17%	2.5
Austin Hooper	2	4	34	0	10%	1.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	3	27	0	7%	1.4
Kayshon Boutte	1	3	16	0	7%	-2.6
TreVeyon Henderson	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8
DeMario Douglas	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jack Gibbens	3	7	0
Carlton Davis III	6	2	0
Christian Gonzalez	7	0	1
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	3	0
Christian Elliss	3	2	0
Craig Woodson	3	1	0
Cory Durden	1	3	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	3	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	3	0	0
Elijah Ponder	1	1	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	7/10	101	0	0	0	6.3
Tyler Huntley	9/10	65	0	0	1	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	128	7.1	2	2.1
Zay Flowers	1	18	18.0	1	2.4
Keaton Mitchell	9	13	1.4	0	-2.5
Lamar Jackson	2	7	3.5	0	-0.5
Mark Andrews	1	3	3.0	0	0.6
Tyler Huntley	2	2	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	7	7	84	35%	4.6
DeAndre Hopkins	4	5	41	25%	3.3
Mark Andrews	2	3	21	15%	-0.9
Charlie Kolar	1	1	18	5%	1.4
Rasheen Ali	2	2	2	10%	-1.0
Rashod Bateman	0	2	0	10%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	8	2	0.0	0	0
Alohi Gilman	6	2	0.0	0	1
Trenton Simpson	6	1	1.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	6	0	0.0	1	2
Kyle Hamilton	5	0	0.0	0	1
Nate Wiggins	3	1	0.0	0	2
Malaki Starks	3	0	0.0	0	0
Brent Urban	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	0	1.0	0	0
Josh Tupou	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3.5
Closing total: 48.5
NE moneyline: +154
BAL moneyline: -185

Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NE 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs John Harbaugh