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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England28
BY 4final margin
RavensBaltimore24
New England Patriots 28 at Baltimore Ravens 24. Final.
Ravens -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
New England Patriots 28, Ravens 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:02, 4th and 2, on Stefon Diggs — 21.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:02 · 4th and 2
Stefon Diggs
Patriots
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
O 48.5 ✓
Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 3:02, Patriots +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsQ4 2:15(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.3pts
Zay FlowersPatriotsQ4 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
18.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.11 expected points per snap.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Patriots160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Swing −21.9 for RavensExpected points −3.46 for RavensThe model had Patriots 8 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:02BAL +22% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
4th · 2:15BAL +21% win prob(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:57NE +18% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
2nd · 0:23NE +11% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BAL 37 for -7 yards (29-A.Washington). FUMBLES (29-A.Washington) [29-A.Washington], RECOVERED by BAL-41-D.Jones at BAL 32. 41-D.Jones to BAL 32 for no gain (65-G.Bradbury).
4th · 9:07BAL +11% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:51NE +10% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to NE 32 for 5 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 7-C.Davis). FUMBLES (21-J.Hawkins), RECOVERED by NE-31-C.Woodson at NE 32.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rhamondre Stevenson's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 2:15 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:15Rhamondre Stevenson·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+728–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryRavens
Patriots5–3Ravens
461Total yards331
6.7Yards per play6.2
54%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate64%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
12Explosive plays4
24First downs18
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Patriots: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Patriots: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 69 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Ravens’s 53 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Ravens 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +9.1 pts in week 1.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 15.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
NE's blitz rate sent, 45.5%, is past their previous high of 39.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 50.0% in week 15 against 69.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens21.2%
inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.1 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of 2.0 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%74 snaps
58Jared WilsonG · Every snap100%74 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Full-time84%62 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time81%60 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation66%49 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation58%43 snaps
74Thayer Munford Jr.T · Rotational43%32 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational38%28 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational31%23 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Situational19%14 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Situational18%13 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Situational16%12 snaps
77Ben BrownC · Situational8%6 snaps
95Khyiris TongaNT · Situational4%3 snaps
34D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Robert SpillaneILBTommy DeVitoQBMarcus BryantTCJ DippreTEEfton Chism IIIWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 3:02 · Patriots · 4th & 2 at BAL 48 · gained 21 · +3.46 EP · +20.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
50%
Yards
785
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.3693%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.2426%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2167%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.0167%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8+0.120%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.330%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.510%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Patriots0Ravens6
Patriots0Ravens7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Patriots 21
Intercepted12 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Ravens 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Patriots 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 43
2nd quarter48 plays
Patriots6Ravens7
Patriots7Ravens7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Ravens 1
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Patriots10Ravens7
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Ravens 24
Patriots10Ravens10
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Patriots 18
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Ravens 30
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 34
No good6 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Patriots 38
Patriots13Ravens10
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Ravens 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots13Ravens16
Patriots13Ravens17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Patriots 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 35
4th quarter47 plays
Patriots13Ravens23
Patriots13Ravens24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Patriots19Ravens24
Patriots21Ravens24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Ravens 37
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Patriots27Ravens24
Patriots28Ravens24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Ravens 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
