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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q4 3:02, 4th and 2, on Stefon Diggs — 21.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 3:02, Patriots +21.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:02 · 4th and 2
Stefon Diggs
Patriots
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.11 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rhamondre Stevenson's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 2:15 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryRavens
Patriots ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 69 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Ravens’s 53 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Ravens 4.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
NE's blitz rate sent, 45.5%, is past their previous high of 39.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 50.0% in week 15 against 69.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots13.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.0 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 68 snaps
Ravens-20.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.6 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 79%
Tendencies room →Patriots69.8%leaned — passed early · +15.6 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 53 early downs
Ravens31.0%leaned — ran early · −14.9 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.5 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Ravens27.3%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%inside their normal wobble · +23.7 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots45.5%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens28.8%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots22.7%leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens21.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.1 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of 2.0 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
31/44, 380 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
15.8 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
7/10, 101 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
6.3 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/44, 380 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 25 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 22.8 | +9.1 | 44% | 18% | 0% | — | 18 car, 128 yd, 2 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 22.8 | +7.4 | 59% | 79% | 24% | 21% | 9/10, 138 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.2 | +8.6 | 89% | 100% | 35% | 42% | 1 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 7/7, 84 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 17.8 | +8.1 | 84% | 87% | 7% | 5% | 8 car, 51 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 27 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.5 | +0.8 | 81% | 79% | 17% | 10% | 6/7, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | −0.6 | 66% | 69% | 21% | 24% | 7/9, 69 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +8.0 | 38% | 29% | 7% | 10% | 2/3, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.1 | +1.0 | 36% | 45% | 25% | 27% | 4/5, 41 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.4 | 31% | 29% | 10% | 12% | 2/4, 34 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB | 4.7 | −0.2 | 47% | — | 0% | — | 7/10, 101 yd · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −0.7 | 44% | 55% | 15% | 19% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.0 | 49% | 27% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 2.8 | −0.6 | 53% | — | 0% | — | 9/10, 65 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −3.2 | 58% | 71% | 7% | 17% | 1/3, 16 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB · Receiving Back | 2.2 | −0.7 | 22% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 2 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 2.2 | −1.8 | 19% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 5 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.3 | 18% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 1.3 | −3.7 | 35% | 36% | 0% | — | 9 car, 13 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 55% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 69% | 77% | 10% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 3:02 · Patriots · 4th & 2 at BAL 48 · gained 21 · +3.46 EP · +20.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Ravens6Patriots0Ravens7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots6Ravens7Patriots7Ravens7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots10Ravens7Patriots10Ravens10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Patriots13Ravens10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots13Ravens16Patriots13Ravens17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Patriots13Ravens23Patriots13Ravens24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Patriots19Ravens24Patriots21Ravens24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Patriots27Ravens24Patriots28Ravens24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 31/44 | 380 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +15.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.3 |
| TreVeyon Henderson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 10 | 138 | 0 | 24% | +12.6 |
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7/10 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | 9/10 | 65 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_NE_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.6 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| +4.1 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 7% | +2.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 17% | +2.5 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7% | −2.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Ponder | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 128 | 7.1 | 2 | +2.1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 | 35% | +4.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 25% | +3.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 15% | −0.9 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +1.4 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trenton Simpson | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Malaki Starks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Tupou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
