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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Jets175 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.8 for SaintsExpected points +3.03 for SaintsThe model had Jets 5 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:47NO +9% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:23NO +8% win prob(14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
2nd · 1:01NO +8% win prob(1:01) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
1st · 14:39NO +8% win prob(14:39) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 89-J.Ruckert pushed ob at NO 33 for 4 yards (94-C.Jordan).
2nd · 15:00NYJ +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NYJ 31 for -10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
1st · 7:44NO +7% win prob(7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to NYJ 23 for 10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
3rd · 10:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Charlie Smyth's 36-yard field goal with 1:34 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:42Nick Folk·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
1st6:35Charlie Smyth·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd14:23Charlie Smyth·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+33–6
2nd12:41Nick Folk·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+36–6
2nd1:34Charlie Smyth·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+36–9
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.36Jets: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.51Jets: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.16Saints: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Jets: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.39Saints: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 63 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Saints’s 77 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Saints 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, is past their previous high of +9.5 pts in week 8 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.7% in week 15 against 20.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Saints20.5%
leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.4 pts, 15.7 points above their season mean of -3.4 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
4Brady CookQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Olumuyiwa FashanuT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Joe TippmannG · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%66 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Armand MembouT · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Adonai MitchellWR · Full-time86%57 snaps
3John Metchie IIIWR · Full-time86%57 snaps
18Isaiah WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
32Isaiah DavisRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
84Stone SmarttTE · Rotational30%20 snaps
86Jelani WoodsTE · Situational20%13 snaps
16Tyler JohnsonWR · Situational14%9 snaps
82Arian SmithWR · Situational11%7 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational8%5 snaps
61Max MitchellT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Eric WattsDEMazi SmithDTPayton PageDTFrancisco MauigoaMLBJustin FieldsQBMason TaylorTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Shough sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NYJ 31 for -10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q2 15:00 · Saints · 3rd & 6 at NYJ 21 · lost 10 · -2.18 EP · −10.1% win probability
173 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 93 yards from the NO 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
38%
Yards
607
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.4373%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3476%
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.5630%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.6157%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.31100%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0557%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1150%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Jets3Saints0
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Saints 11
Jets3Saints3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Jets 17
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 39
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Jets 21
2nd quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Jets3Saints6
Field goal2 plays
Jets6Saints6
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Saints 18
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 45
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 42
Jets6Saints9
Field goal16 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Jets 18
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 47
No good8 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Jets 43
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 35 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 32
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 40
Jets6Saints15
Jets6Saints16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Jets 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 41
4th quarter51 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Saints 47
Jets6Saints19
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 32
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Saints 39
Jets6Saints22
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 18
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Saints 42
Jets6Saints28
Jets6Saints29
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Saints 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
