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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

New York Jets

6

New Orleans SaintsWinner

29

NO -6.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓Dome

New Orleans Saints 29–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:47, NO +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑NYJ ↓
Q3 · 0:47NYJ 6 — NO 15NO ball · 3rd & 5NO 83%

(:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:47NO +9% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 14:23NO +8% win prob(14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
  3. Q2 · 1:01NO +8% win prob(1:01) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
  4. Q1 · 14:39NO +8% win prob(14:39) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 89-J.Ruckert pushed ob at NO 33 for 4 yards (94-C.Jordan).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:42NYJ Field goal

    (10:42) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NO 0
  2. Q1 · 6:35NO Field goal

    (6:35) 39-C.Smyth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NO 3
  3. Q2 · 14:23NO Field goal

    (14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NO 6
  4. Q2 · 12:41NYJ Field goal

    (12:41) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 6
  5. Q2 · 1:34NO Field goal

    (1:34) 39-C.Smyth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 9
  6. Q3 · 0:47NO Touchdown

    (:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 16
  7. Q4 · 11:14NO Field goal

    (11:14) 39-C.Smyth 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 19
  8. Q4 · 5:22NO Field goal

    (5:22) 39-C.Smyth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 22
  9. Q4 · 2:00NO Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NO 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsSaints
Offensive plays6377
Total yards195412 (edge)
Yards per play3.15.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.36-0.01 (edge)
Success rate30%40% (edge)
Dropback rate70%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.510.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.39
Third downs2/158/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)25 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1123 (edge)
Sacks taken83 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

32/49, 308 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Brady CookQB

22/35, 188 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-21.3 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

16 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

10/16 for 148 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

8/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 28380:21Fumble
2NYJNO 378264:01Field goal +3
3NONO 4013434:07Field goal +3
4NYJNYJ 206293:14Punt
5NONO 348353:59Field goal +3
6NYJNYJ 357321:40Field goal +3
7NONO 217242:51Turnover on downs
8NYJNO 45432:30Punt
9NONO 915735:46Field goal +3
10NYJNYJ 35820:37Punt
11NONO 98480:54Missed field goal
12NYJNYJ 357103:28Punt
13NONO 274-31:37Punt
14NYJNYJ 308183:54Punt
15NONO 713935:20Touchdown +7
16NYJNYJ 356212:56Fumble
17NONYJ 465141:36Field goal +3
18NYJNYJ 447172:01Interception
19NONYJ 4410333:51Field goal +3
20NYJNYJ 35992:27Turnover on downs
21NONYJ 444440:56Touchdown +7
22NYJNYJ 328281:54End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 93 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brady Cook22/35188018-21.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall16543.40-0.2
Isaiah Davis382.700.2
Brady Cook122.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Davis4452012%2.5
Adonai Mitchell3643018%2.4
Stone Smartt5534015%0.6
Isaiah Williams4425012%1.1
Jeremy Ruckert231409%-0.9
Breece Hall23909%-1.0
Tyler Johnson11703%-0.1
John Metchie III154015%-5.6
Jelani Woods02006%-2.6
Arian Smith01003%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams650.000
Jamien Sherwood741.000
Malachi Moore530.000
Mykal Walker260.000
Dean Clark420.000
Brandon Stephens140.000
Harrison Phillips140.000
Jordan Clark320.000
Qwan'tez Stiggers320.002
Will McDonald IV311.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Shough32/493081032.7
Taysom Hill1/1381006.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Taysom Hill12423.50-7.4
Audric Estimé5193.801.6
Mason Tipton11212.000.7
Tyler Shough284.00-0.3
Evan Hull530.60-3.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave1016148234%11.7
Juwan Johnson8989019%3.4
Taysom Hill4636013%0.8
Mason Tipton4529011%0.4
Kevin Austin Jr.231806%0.0
Audric Estimé341709%-0.3
Foster Moreau11502%-0.3
Jack Stoll12404%-0.3
Dante Pettis01002%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Justin Reid360.001
Demario Davis260.001
Alontae Taylor521.000
Jonas Sanker150.012
Kool-Aid McKinstry320.001
Danny Stutsman230.000
John Ridgeway130.000
Nathan Shepherd211.000
Cameron Jordan302.000
Carl Granderson120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -6.5
Closing total
39.5
NYJ moneyline
+240
NO moneyline
-298

Saints closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 35 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
NYJ 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Kellen Moore