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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles154 of 165 plays carry both curves
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.1 for CommandersExpected points −3.84 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 17 points higher than the market did.play 109
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:33WAS +16% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:55WAS +9% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez right guard to PHI 23 for 3 yards (97-M.Ojomo; 53-Z.Baun).
2nd · 0:09PHI +9% win prob(:09) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
3rd · 5:38WAS +8% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 5:14WAS +8% win prob(5:14) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez left guard to PHI 1 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).
3rd · 2:41WAS +8% win prob(2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 47 for 20 yards (30-J.Campbell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 15-yard touchdown catch with 3:33 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:42Jake Moody·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–3
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.13Commanders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Eagles: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.32Commanders: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Eagles: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.06Commanders: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Commanders’s 51 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Commanders 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.2% in week 15 against 5.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 26.9% in week 15 against 54.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 15 against 16.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders5.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 8.8 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%70 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Full-time94%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time94%66 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Full-time94%66 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Full-time94%66 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time87%61 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time87%61 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
2Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational30%21 snaps
80Darius CooperWR · Situational19%13 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational11%8 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational11%8 snaps
37Tank BigsbyRB · Situational11%8 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Situational10%7 snaps
84E.J. JenkinsTE · Situational9%6 snaps
64Brett TothG · Situational6%4 snaps
16Tanner McKeeQB · Situational6%4 snaps
66Drew KendallC · Situational6%4 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mac McWilliamsCBJalen CarterDTJoshua UcheOLBSam HowellQBAJ DillonRBLane JohnsonTCameron LatuTE
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive
75Chris PaulG · Every snap100%54 snaps
72Josh Conerly Jr.T · Every snap100%54 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%54 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Full-time93%50 snaps
74Brandon ColemanG · Full-time89%48 snaps
13Treylon BurksWR · Full-time83%45 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time83%45 snaps
1Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Full-time81%44 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Heavy rotation69%37 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Heavy rotation59%32 snaps
36Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Heavy rotation52%28 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:33 · Eagles · 3rd & goal at WAS 15 · gained 15 · +3.84 EP · +18.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
609
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2960%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3064%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2411%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0544%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.240%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Eagles0Commanders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 2
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 41
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 34
Eagles6Commanders3
Eagles7Commanders3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Commanders 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 45
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt1 play
No good12 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Commanders 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Eagles7Commanders9
Eagles7Commanders10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Eagles 1
No good16 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Commanders 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Eagles 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Eagles13Commanders10
Eagles14Commanders10
Touchdown22 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Commanders 1
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Eagles20Commanders10
Eagles21Commanders10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Commanders 12
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 22
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 44
Eagles27Commanders10
Eagles29Commanders10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Commanders 22
Eagles29Commanders16
Eagles29Commanders18
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -7
Closing total
43.5
Eagles moneyline
-380
Commanders moneyline
+300
Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 47 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Eagles 6 days · Commanders 6 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 8:54
WAS +7% win prob
(8:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown (20-Q.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-3-W.Harris, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 38 - No Play.
2nd · 3:57WAS +7% win prob(3:57) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
