For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 20, 2025 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q3 3:33, 3rd and 15, on Dallas Goedert — 16.1 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 29–18. Biggest swing: Q3 3:33, Eagles +16.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:33 · 3rd and 15
Dallas Goedert
Eagles
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dallas Goedert's 15-yard touchdown catch with 3:33 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Dallas Goedert15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+714–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Commanders’s 51 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Commanders 3.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.2% in week 15 against 5.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 26.9% in week 15 against 54.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · +0.1σ from their own normal
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.0% in week 15 against 16.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles1.2 ptsright on their number · +3.6 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 64 snaps
Commanders-14.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their -4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles54.5%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 55 early downs
Commanders43.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Eagles24.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Commanders24.0%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
Commanders33.3%leaned — took the kick · −19.0 vs their 52.3%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Eagles24.0%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders24.3%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Eagles16.0%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders5.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
WAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 8.8 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
22/30, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
7/14, 95 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.4 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tank Bigsby banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.2 | +3.4 | 77% | 81% | 7% | 0% | 21 car, 132 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | −2.5 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 185 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 40 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | +0.4 | 87% | 100% | 41% | 51% | 9/12, 95 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.2 | +0.6 | 86% | 97% | 28% | 36% | 6/8, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Committee Back | 13.9 | −0.8 | 52% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 15 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +6.7 | 87% | 95% | 10% | 13% | 3/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 9.7 | +7.5 | 11% | 3% | 0% | — | 4 car, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 8.5 | −2.9 | 20% | 12% | 0% | — | 8 car, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | +2.1 | 83% | 96% | 20% | 36% | 3/4, 53 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | +0.6 | 81% | 96% | 20% | 12% | 3/4, 35 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB · Receiving Back | 5.2 | −0.4 | 28% | 44% | 15% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.0 | −4.7 | 83% | 88% | 25% | 34% | 2/5, 30 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | 0.0 | 66% | 81% | 10% | 7% | 3/3, 13 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 3.7 | −4.3 | 59% | — | 0% | — | 7/14, 95 yd · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.0 | 69% | 64% | 10% | 17% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 1.3 | −0.1 | 11% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 50% | 36% | 5% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tanner McKeeQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh JohnsonQB | -0.3 | −2.1 | 41% | — | 0% | — | 5/9, 43 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:33 · Eagles · 3rd & goal at WAS 15 · gained 15 · +3.84 EP · +18.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Commanders3Eagles6Commanders3Eagles7Commanders3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles7Commanders9Eagles7Commanders10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Eagles13Commanders10Eagles14Commanders10How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles20Commanders10Eagles21Commanders10Eagles27Commanders10Eagles29Commanders10Eagles29Commanders16Eagles29Commanders18Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/30 | 185 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 132 | 6.3 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Tank Bigsby |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 41% | +5.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7/14 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.4 |
| Josh Johnson | 5/9 | 43 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_PHI_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 47 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 37 |
| 9.3 |
| 1 |
| +3.2 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| +3.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 10% | +5.2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 20% | +4.1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 20% | +2.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | −6.6 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 15% | −1.6 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
