2025 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 20, 2025 · FedExField

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Washington Commanders

PHI -7 ✓O 43.5 ✓Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.

Philadelphia Eagles 29–18. Biggest swing: Q3 3:33, WAS +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:33PHI 13 — WAS 10PHI ball · 3rd & 15PHI 61%

(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:33WAS +16% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:55WAS +9% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez right guard to PHI 23 for 3 yards (97-M.Ojomo; 53-Z.Baun).
Q2 · 0:09PHI +9% win prob(:09) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q3 · 5:38WAS +8% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:42WAS Field goal
(11:42) 16-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: PHI 0 — WAS 3
Q1 · 2:40PHI Touchdown
(2:40) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — WAS 3
Q2 · 3:57WAS Touchdown
(3:57) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — WAS 10
Q3 · 3:33PHI Touchdown
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — WAS 10
Q4 · 11:41PHI Touchdown
(11:41) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — WAS 10
Q4 · 4:33PHI Touchdown
(4:33) 79-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 37-T.Bigsby left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 29 — WAS 10
Q4 · 1:13WAS Touchdown
(1:13) 36-C.Rodriguez left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 29 — WAS 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	65	51
Total yards	389 (edge)	223
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	52% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	57%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

22/30, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

7/14, 95 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

21 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

6.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB

15 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

9/12 for 95 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

3/4 for 53 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	—	1	0	0:05	Fumble
2	WAS	PHI 26	8	24	3:16	Field goal +3
3	PHI	PHI 32	5	9	2:16	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 15	7	19	3:17	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 37	8	67	3:29	Touchdown +7
6	WAS	WAS 31	6	12	2:43	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 10	12	65	5:48	Missed field goal
8	WAS	WAS 33	10	67	5:26	Touchdown +7
9	PHI	PHI 19	12	42	3:36	Missed field goal
10	WAS	WAS 42	1	0	0:04	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 32	6	24	0:58	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 17	18	74	10:35	Touchdown +7
13	WAS	WAS 26	7	23	2:55	Interception
14	PHI	WAS 37	8	37	3:59	Touchdown +7
15	WAS	WAS 34	5	6	2:22	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 20	4	2	0:57	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 40	4	4	1:36	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 20	5	82	2:12	Touchdown +8
19	WAS	WAS 25	10	44	3:16	Touchdown +8
20	PHI	WAS 48	5	11	1:10	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 82 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	22/30	185	2	0	2	7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	21	132	6.3	1	6.7
Jalen Hurts	7	40	5.7	0	1.5
Tank Bigsby	4	37	9.3	1	3.2
Tanner McKee	2	-2	-1.0	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	9	12	95	0	41%	5.1
DeVonta Smith	6	8	42	1	28%	3.7
Dallas Goedert	3	3	32	1	10%	5.2
Jahan Dotson	3	3	13	0	10%	-0.3
Will Shipley	1	1	3	0	3%	-1.7
Saquon Barkley	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zack Baun	3	6	0.0	0	0
Jihaad Campbell	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Davis	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cooper DeJean	5	0	0.0	1	4
Adoree' Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Young	2	1	1.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nakobe Dean	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jalyx Hunt	2	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	1	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	7/14	95	0	0	1	-3.4
Josh Johnson	5/9	43	0	1	1	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	15	63	4.2	1	1.5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8	25	3.1	1	-0.0
Jeremy McNichols	1	3	3.0	0	0.8
Josh Johnson	1	0	0.0	0	-0.8
Marcus Mariota	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	3	4	53	20%	4.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.	3	4	35	20%	2.1
Treylon Burks	2	5	30	25%	-6.6
Jeremy McNichols	2	3	9	15%	-1.6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	1	1	6	5%	0.5
Ben Sinnott	1	2	5	10%	-1.1
John Bates	0	1	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	5	1.0	0
Jonathan Jones	7	1	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	5	3	0.0	0
Daron Payne	2	3	0.0	0
Jordan Magee	4	0	0.0	0
Mike Sainristil	4	0	0.0	1
Jeremy Reaves	2	1	0.0	0
Javon Kinlaw	2	1	0.0	0
Will Harris	2	1	0.0	1
Antonio Hamilton	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -7
Closing total: 43.5
PHI moneyline: -380
WAS moneyline: +300

Eagles closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 47 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PHI 6 days · WAS 6 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.