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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Ford Field

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

29

Detroit Lions

24

DET -7.5 upsetO 52.5 ✓Dome

Pittsburgh Steelers 29–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, PIT +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 0:08PIT 29 — DET 24DET ball · 4th & 9PIT 68%

(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enfo

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:08PIT +32% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 9 - No Play.
  2. Q4 · 2:09PIT +23% win prob(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
  3. Q4 · 1:14DET +18% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
  4. Q4 · 1:30DET +17% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams. PENALTY on PIT-29-K.Dugger, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:26PIT Field goal

    (9:26) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — DET 0
  2. Q2 · 10:13DET Field goal

    (10:13) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — DET 3
  3. Q2 · 2:00DET Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — DET 10
  4. Q2 · 0:11PIT Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 14-K.Gainwell for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader]. Penalty on DET-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — DET 10
  5. Q3 · 9:47PIT Safety

    (9:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (29-K.Dugger).

    Score after this play: PIT 12 — DET 10
  6. Q4 · 15:00PIT Field goal

    (15:00) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 15 — DET 10
  7. Q4 · 12:32PIT Touchdown

    (12:32) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 22 — DET 10
  8. Q4 · 8:45DET Touchdown

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 22 — DET 17
  9. Q4 · 6:50PIT Touchdown

    (6:50) 30-J.Warren left tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 29 — DET 17
  10. Q4 · 4:15DET Touchdown

    (4:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 29 — DET 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersLions
Offensive plays7068
Total yards481 (edge)362
Yards per play6.9 (edge)5.3
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)0.10
Success rate41%43% (edge)
Dropback rate64%84%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.110.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)-0.36
Third downs8/16 (edge)6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)21
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers10 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

34/54, 364 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

27/41, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.0 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

14 att, 143 yds, 2 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

9 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

5/7 for 78 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

5/9 for 70 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 285-11:52Punt
2PITPIT 299303:47Field goal +3
3DETDET 3414637:14Turnover on downs
4PITPIT 38313:37Punt
5DETDET 388443:20Field goal +3
6PITPIT 28572:16Punt
7DETDET 15401:36Punt
8PITPIT 21402:16Punt
9DETDET 387622:07Touchdown +7
10PITPIT 2013901:53Touchdown +7
11DETDET 35200:02End of half
12PITPIT 3110654:27Fumble
13DETDET 33-30:51Safety
14PITPIT 3118799:44Field goal +3
15DETDET 14500:33Punt
16PITPIT 395612:02Touchdown +7
17DETDET 2612743:44Touchdown +7
18PITPIT 355751:58Touchdown +7
19DETDET 3212732:30Touchdown +7
20PITPIT 348432:06Missed field goal
21DETDET 2710502:05End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/4126610211.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren1414310.226.4
Kenneth Gainwell9505.601.5
Jonnu Smith22814.002.0
Aaron Rodgers294.50-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kenneth Gainwell5778118%5.4
Adam Thielen4449011%5.2
DK Metcalf4942024%0.2
Darnell Washington3436011%-2.1
Pat Freiermuth4420011%-0.2
Scott Miller331908%4.5
Jaylen Warren22805%-1.3
Calvin Austin III11803%1.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling13608%-0.2
Jonnu Smith01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyle Dugger611.000
Patrick Queen430.000
Alex Highsmith420.000
Joey Porter Jr.420.002
Jack Sawyer320.000
Payton Wilson410.000
Cameron Heyward221.000
Brandin Echols310.000
Yahya Black210.001
Chuck Clark120.002

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff34/5436430310.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery4143.50-0.8
Jahmyr Gibbs720.30-3.1
Jared Goff1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams5970017%1.9
Jahmyr Gibbs101366125%1.7
Kalif Raymond4562110%8.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown4954017%-0.9
Isaac TeSlaa4752113%3.9
Anthony Firkser444008%3.0
Shane Zylstra3520010%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell790.002
D.J. Reed710.000
Alex Anzalone350.001
Thomas Harper430.001
Avonte Maddox220.000
Rock Ya-Sin220.001
Amik Robertson220.000
Derrick Barnes310.000
DJ Reader210.000
Aidan Hutchinson302.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -7.5
Closing total
52.5
PIT moneyline
+330
DET moneyline
-425

Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 53 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
PIT 6 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Dan Campbell