For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 at Detroit Lions 24. Final.
Lions -7.5 upsetO 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 29, Lions 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:08, 4th and 9, on A.St. — 32.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:08 · 4th and 9
A.St.
Steelers
(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 9 - No Play.
Dome
Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 29–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:08, Steelers +32.1% win probability on one snap.
32.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris BoswellLionsQ4 2:09(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
22.9pts
A.St.LionsQ4 1:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
17.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.39 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Steelers at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 7 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Steelers180 of 192 plays carry both curves
(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enfo
Swing −32.1 for LionsExpected points −2.59 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 191
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:08PIT +32% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 9 - No Play.
4th · 2:09PIT +23% win prob(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
4th · 1:14DET +18% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
4th · 1:30DET +17% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams. PENALTY on PIT-29-K.Dugger, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play.
4th · 8:45DET +17% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:25PIT +16% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-18-I.TeSlaa, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 1 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Dugger's safety with 9:47 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:26Chris Boswell·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
2nd10:13Jake Bates·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+33–3
2nd2:00Isaac TeSlaa·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+73–10
4th4:15Jahmyr Gibbs·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+729–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryLions
Steelers6–3Lions
481Total yards362
6.9Yards per play5.3
41%Success rate43%
50%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays7
22First downs21
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Steelers: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.10Lions: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.39Steelers: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.36Lions: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Lions’s 68 at 84%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 6, Lions 6.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 80.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 7.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 65.9% in week 11.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, +7.5 pts, is past their previous high of +2.1 pts in week 10 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Lions6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.4%, 26.7 points above their season mean of 53.7% and 2.3 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
66Mason McCormickG · Every snap100%74 snaps
76Troy FautanuT · Every snap100%74 snaps
60Dylan CookT · Every snap100%74 snaps
8Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Every snap100%74 snaps
4DK MetcalfWR · Full-time88%65 snaps
74Spencer AndersonG · Full-time85%63 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 9 - No Play.
Q4 0:08 · Lions · 4th & goal at PIT 9 · gained nothing · -2.59 EP · −31.3% win probability
178 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
842
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.2094%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.4390%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4156%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.1555%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3150%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.2533%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1811%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Steelers3Lions0
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Lions 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.5 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Steelers 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Steelers 8
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 34
Steelers3Lions3
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Steelers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 35
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 27
Steelers3Lions9
Steelers3Lions10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Steelers 20
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Steelers9Lions10
Steelers10Lions10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Lions 45
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Lions 9
Steelers12Lions10
Drive ended3 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 5
The period ended22 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Lions 2
4th quarter71 plays
Steelers15Lions10
Field goal1 play
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers21Lions10
Steelers22Lions10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Lions 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Steelers22Lions16
Steelers22Lions17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Steelers 27
Steelers28Lions17
Steelers29Lions17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Lions 45
Steelers29Lions23
Steelers29Lions24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Steelers 4
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Lions 18
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
The period ended17 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Steelers 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7.5
Closing total
52.5
Steelers moneyline
+330
Lions moneyline
-425
Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 53 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Dan Campbell
2nd · 0:11DET +15% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 14-K.Gainwell for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader]. Penalty on DET-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
3rd · 10:41PIT +12% win prob(10:41) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to DET 3 for 6 yards (12-T.Harper; 34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to DET 4 for 5 yards (12-T.Harper; 34-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (12-T.Harper), RECOVERED by DET-46-J.Campbell at DET 3.
Steelerscategory by categoryLions
Steelers3
Lions0
