For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2025 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 22, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco48
BY 21final margin
ColtsIndianapolis27
San Francisco 49ers 48 at Indianapolis Colts 27. Final.
49ers -4.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
San Francisco 49ers 48, Colts 27 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:19, 3rd and 16, on Alec Pierce — 12.8 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:19 · 3rd and 16
Alec Pierce
Colts
(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 21.
San Francisco 49ers 48–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:19, Colts +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh DownsColtsQ1 11:45(11:45) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 2-J.Downs to SF 23 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
9.1pts
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ1 7:1418-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
10.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Colts at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.04 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on 49ers161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +12.8 for ColtsExpected points +3.77 for ColtsThe model had Colts 16 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:19IND +13% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 7:14SF +11% win prob18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
1st · 11:45IND +9% win prob(11:45) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 2-J.Downs to SF 23 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
2nd · 9:42IND +8% win prob(9:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:14IND +8% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 28-J.Taylor to IND 49 for 19 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
1st · 10:36IND +6% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-96-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
George Kittle's 11-yard touchdown catch with 9:42 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:36Alec Pierce·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+70–7
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.4049ers: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.5749ers: +0.57 expected points added per play
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Colts’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 7, Colts 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 2.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.6% in week 15 against 61.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Colts2.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Pineiro kicks−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
Q1 7:14 · Colts · Kickoff at SF 35 · gained nothing · -5.94 EP · −16.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
53%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0574%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.3176%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.5435%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.2840%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1344%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4580%
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
49ers0Colts6
49ers0Colts7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 28 to the 49ers 20
49ers6Colts7
49ers7Colts7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Colts 22
Fumble lost1 play
49ers13Colts7
49ers14Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 34 to the 49ers 10
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
49ers14Colts13
49ers14Colts14
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 16
49ers20Colts14
49ers21Colts14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Colts 11
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 28
49ers24Colts14
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Colts 6
49ers24Colts17
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 35 to the 49ers 21
No good3 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Colts 46
3rd quarter36 plays
49ers30Colts17
49ers31Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Colts 3
49ers31Colts20
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 35 to the 49ers 33
49ers34Colts20
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Colts 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 35 to the 49ers 43
4th quarter43 plays
49ers34Colts26
49ers34Colts27
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 1
49ers40Colts27
49ers41Colts27
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Colts 8
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 33
49ers47Colts27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 29 to the 49ers 29
49ers48Colts27
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 44
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
