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2025 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 22, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

48

Indianapolis Colts

27

SF -4.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓Dome

San Francisco 49ers 48–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:19, IND +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 14:19SF 14 — IND 13IND ball · 3rd & 16SF 80%

(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 14:19IND +13% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. Q1 · 7:14SF +11% win prob18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
  3. Q1 · 11:45IND +9% win prob(11:45) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 2-J.Downs to SF 23 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
  4. Q2 · 9:42IND +8% win prob(9:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:36IND Touchdown

    (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-96-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 0 — IND 7
  2. Q1 · 7:19SF Touchdown

    (7:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-D.Robinson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — IND 7
  3. Q1 · 4:37SF Touchdown

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — IND 7
  4. Q2 · 14:19IND Touchdown

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — IND 14
  5. Q2 · 9:42SF Touchdown

    (9:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — IND 14
  6. Q2 · 1:55SF Field goal

    (1:55) 18-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — IND 14
  7. Q2 · 0:21IND Field goal

    (:21) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — IND 17
  8. Q3 · 11:02SF Touchdown

    (11:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 31 — IND 17
  9. Q3 · 8:21IND Field goal

    (8:21) 10-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: SF 31 — IND 20
  10. Q3 · 4:07SF Field goal

    (4:07) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: SF 34 — IND 20
  11. Q4 · 12:45IND Touchdown

    (12:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 34 — IND 27
  12. Q4 · 7:42SF Touchdown

    (7:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 41 — IND 27
  13. Q4 · 3:38SF Touchdown

    (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at SF 26. 53-D.Winters for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 48 — IND 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersColts
Offensive plays6358
Total yards443 (edge)312
Yards per play7.0 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.40 (edge)-0.04
Success rate52% (edge)50%
Dropback rate57%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.57 (edge)-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.19 (edge)-0.09
Third downs7/10 (edge)5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps28 (edge)17
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers1 (edge)2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

25/34, 295 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

20.5 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

23/35, 277 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

21 att, 117 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/8 for 115 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/4 for 86 yds, 2 TD

11% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2811824:29Touchdown +7
2SFSF 318693:17Touchdown +7
3IND—100:06Fumble
4SFIND 266262:35Touchdown +7
5INDIND 3414765:18Touchdown +7
6SFSF 3112694:39Touchdown +7
7INDIND 20582:27Punt
8SFSF 1812725:18Field goal +3
9INDIND 358281:34Field goal +3
10SFSF 403140:17Missed field goal
11SFSF 3610644:02Touchdown +7
12INDIND 358172:42Field goal +3
13SFSF 329494:14Field goal +3
14INDIND 3514656:21Touchdown +7
15SFSF 3012705:04Touchdown +7
16INDIND 205-151:17Punt
17SFIND 445101:43Interception
18INDIND 293421:11Defensive touchdown
19INDIND 35591:30Turnover on downs
20SFIND 43301:56End of game

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy25/3429551120.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey211175.602.9
Brian Robinson5204.00-0.3
Brock Purdy2115.502.2
Mac Jones3-3-1.00-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle78115124%9.8
Jauan Jennings5671118%9.1
Christian McCaffrey6829224%3.2
Kendrick Bourne3527015%-4.3
Skyy Moore112303%2.0
Demarcus Robinson222316%2.2
Jake Tonges12706%0.6
Brian Robinson01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tatum Bethune450.001
Ji'Ayir Brown540.000
Malik Mustapha350.000
Darrell Luter Jr.510.001
Upton Stout330.002
Dee Winters120.012
Deommodore Lenoir210.000
Kalia Davis030.001
Sam Okuayinonu120.000
Keion White120.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers23/352772122.9
Riley Leonard0/10000-3.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor16462.91-0.4
Tyler Goodson393.00-1.2
Josh Downs133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce4486211%9.6
Josh Downs5965025%3.3
Jonathan Taylor333308%3.1
Michael Pittman4532014%0.2
Tyler Warren3930025%-11.8
Mo Alie-Cox221606%1.4
Andrew Ogletree121106%0.5
Ameer Abdullah11403%0.9
Coleman Owen01003%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Camryn Bynum520.011
Germaine Pratt420.001
Nick Cross330.000
DeForest Buckner410.000
Samson Ebukam310.000
Zaire Franklin220.001
Neville Gallimore300.000
Kenny Moore II210.000
Mekhi Blackmon300.001
Cameron Mitchell300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -4.5
Closing total
46.5
SF moneyline
-225
IND moneyline
+185

49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 75 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
SF 8 days · IND 8 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Shane Steichen