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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20

Carolina PanthersWinner

23

TB -3 upsetU 44.5 ✓

Carolina Panthers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, TB +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 0:49TB 20 — CAR 23TB ball · 2nd & 9CAR 61%

(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:49TB +34% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
  2. Q4 · 3:16CAR +18% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at TB 33 for 34 yards (21-B.Morrison). Penalty on TB-21-B.Morrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  3. Q2 · 0:12CAR +16% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 2:24CAR +15% win prob(2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:34CAR Field goal

    (10:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: TB 0 — CAR 3
  2. Q1 · 4:06TB Touchdown

    (4:06) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — CAR 3
  3. Q2 · 8:13TB Field goal

    (8:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 2:10CAR Field goal

    (2:10) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 6
  5. Q2 · 0:12CAR Touchdown

    (:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — CAR 13
  6. Q3 · 6:45TB Touchdown

    (6:45) 44-S.Tucker left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — CAR 13
  7. Q3 · 0:17CAR Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 0-J.Sanders for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — CAR 20
  8. Q4 · 11:29TB Field goal

    (11:29) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 20
  9. Q4 · 2:24CAR Field goal

    (2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — CAR 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersPanthers
Offensive plays6053
Total yards297 (edge)276
Yards per play5.05.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.10
Success rate43%43% (edge)
Dropback rate50%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.24 (edge)0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.08 (edge)
Third downs8/14 (edge)6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)16
Sacks taken22
Turnovers10 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Panthers 297–276 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

21/32, 191 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

18/26, 145 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.8 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

19 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

5 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

6/10 for 73 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Jalen CokerWR

3/5 for 47 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 3510564:30Field goal +3
2TBTB 4712536:29Touchdown +7
3CARCAR 358113:40Punt
4TBTB 1014657:12Field goal +3
5CARCAR 35580:46Punt
6TBTB 214-22:58Punt
7CARTB 396162:19Field goal +3
8TBTB 33531:00Punt
9CARCAR 379630:59Touchdown +7
10TBTB 16200:07End of half
11TBTB 3416668:19Touchdown +7
12CARCAR 3513706:33Touchdown +7
13TBCAR 437163:44Field goal +3
14CARCAR 35893:29Punt
15TBTB 126433:09Punt
16CARCAR 277432:26Field goal +3
17TBTB 108531:38Interception
18CARCAR 35100:42End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 70 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield18/261451122.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving19713.700.8
Baker Mayfield44912.303.9
Rachaad White5459.001.3
Sean Tucker430.81-2.0
Jalen McMillan111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Emeka Egbuka124008%3.0
Mike Evans5931136%-2.2
Chris Godwin Jr.5630024%2.7
Rachaad White221508%2.2
Jalen McMillan2315012%1.2
Cade Otton221508%0.7
Tez Johnson11-104%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David641.000
SirVocea Dennis621.000
Benjamin Morrison420.000
Jacob Parrish230.002
Tykee Smith220.001
Jamel Dean310.001
Logan Hall220.000
Haason Reddick210.000
Chris Braswell110.000
Yaya Diaby100.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young21/321912023.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle9293.20-2.0
Chuba Hubbard6274.501.0
Jimmy Horn Jr.12525.001.6
Bryce Young4205.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tetairoa McMillan61073132%6.0
Jalen Coker3547016%1.6
Mitchell Evans3323010%1.1
Rico Dowdle4614019%-2.0
Xavier Legette1312010%-0.0
Ja'Tavion Sanders22916%1.4
Chuba Hubbard11703%-0.7
Tommy Tremble11603%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Scott910.000
Claudin Cherelus620.000
Tre'von Moehrig520.000
Christian Rozeboom341.000
Chau Smith-Wade320.000
Derrick Brown321.000
Akayleb Evans220.000
Nic Scourton220.000
D.J. Wonnum120.000
Jaycee Horn300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -3
Closing total
44.5
TB moneyline
-155
CAR moneyline
+130

Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
TB 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.