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2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Carolina Panthers 23. Final.
Buccaneers -3 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 16
Carolina Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:49, 2nd and 9, on Lathan Ransom — 34.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 2nd and 9
Lathan Ransom
Panthers
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
U 44.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Panthers +34.2% win probability on one snap.
34.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tetairoa McMillanPanthersQ2 0:12(:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.9pts
Jalen CokerPanthersQ4 3:16(3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at TB 33 for 34 yards (21-B.Morrison). Penalty on TB-21-B.Morrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
17.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 6 of 12 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.03 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
Swing +34.2 for PanthersExpected points +1.96 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:49TB +34% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
4th · 3:16CAR +18% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at TB 33 for 34 yards (21-B.Morrison). Penalty on TB-21-B.Morrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 0:12CAR +16% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:24CAR +15% win prob(2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 12:20TB +14% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 32 for -9 yards (95-D.Brown).
4th · 6:38CAR +12% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka to CAR 49 for 40 yards (21-N.Scott).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Fitzgerald's 48-yard field goal with 2:24 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:34Ryan Fitzgerald·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+30–3
4th11:29Chase McLaughlin·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.Deckers+320–20
4th2:24Ryan Fitzgerald·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers4–4Panthers
297Total yards276
5.0Yards per play5.2
43%Success rate43%
57%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
17First downs16
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.10Panthers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Buccaneers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.11Panthers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Panthers’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Panthers 3.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Panthers 297-276 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 3.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.7% in week 15 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.4 pts in week 15 against −16.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers6.7%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
Q4 0:49 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 9 at CAR 42 · gained nothing · -1.96 EP · −31.2% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
571
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2765%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0957%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3956%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3122%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0620%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Buccaneers0Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 6
Buccaneers6Panthers3
Buccaneers7Panthers3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Panthers 1
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Buccaneers10Panthers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 22
Buccaneers10Panthers6
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Buccaneers 23
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers12
Buccaneers10Panthers13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Buccaneers 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Buccaneers16Panthers13
Buccaneers17Panthers13
Touchdown17 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Panthers 1
Buccaneers17Panthers19
Buccaneers17Panthers20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 6
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Buccaneers20Panthers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 23
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Panthers 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers20Panthers23
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Buccaneers 30
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Panthers 37
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
