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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 16
It turned at Q4 0:49, 2nd and 9, on Lathan Ransom — 34.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Panthers +34.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 2nd and 9
Lathan Ransom
Panthers
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
34.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 6 of 12 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.03 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ryan Fitzgerald's 48-yard field goal with 2:24 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ryan Fitzgerald48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+320–239 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Panthers’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Panthers 3.
Buccaneers outgained Panthers 297-276 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's play-action rate, 3.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.7% in week 15 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.4 pts in week 15 against −16.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-16.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.0 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 60 snaps
Panthers0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers41.3%leaned — ran early · −12.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 46 early downs
Panthers65.9%inside their normal wobble · +12.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 49%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers3.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.7 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Panthers13.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.1%.
Panthers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 68.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 62%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers26.7%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers25.0%leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers6.7%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
TB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
21/32, 191 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Passing · TB
18/26, 145 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.8 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
6/10 for 73 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Tavion Sanders banked 4.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.3 | +4.1 | 87% | 89% | 32% | 45% | 6/10, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | +1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 191 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 20 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | −5.2 | 66% | 80% | 36% | 39% | 5/9, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 145 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 49 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +4.1 | 57% | 64% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | −5.7 | 57% | 56% | 19% | 7% | 9 car, 29 yd · 4/6, 14 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −1.9 | 64% | 90% | 24% | 25% | 5/6, 30 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 8.0 | +1.3 | 39% | 47% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 45 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −1.6 | 81% | 83% | 16% | 27% | 3/5, 47 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 7.1 | −2.1 | 62% | 53% | 0% | — | 19 car, 71 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 6.3 | −3.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.7 | 30% | 25% | 10% | 5% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +1.6 | 56% | 50% | 8% | 26% | 1/2, 40 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 4.4 | −1.9 | 41% | 42% | 3% | 2% | 6 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.6 | 53% | 63% | 12% | 7% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 94% | 90% | 8% | 5% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.7 | 22% | 19% | 0% | — | 1 car, 25 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.3 | 65% | 75% | 10% | 12% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.7 | 43% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.6 | 25% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
Q4 0:49 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 9 at CAR 42 · gained nothing · -1.96 EP · −31.2% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Panthers3Buccaneers6Panthers3Buccaneers7Panthers3Buccaneers10Panthers3Buccaneers10Panthers6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers10Panthers12Buccaneers10Panthers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Buccaneers16Panthers13Buccaneers17Panthers13Buccaneers17Panthers19Buccaneers17Panthers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Buccaneers20Panthers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers20Panthers23How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Rachaad White |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 8% | +3.0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 36% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Morrison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 21/32 | 191 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_16_TB_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 45 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.3 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| −2.2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 24% | +2.7 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | +1.2 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haason Reddick | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Deckers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 10 | 73 | 1 | 32% | +6.0 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 16% | +1.6 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Scott | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Claudin Cherelus | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
