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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Cardinals164 of 171 plays carry both curves
(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
Swing +7.7 for BengalsExpected points +2.87 for BengalsThe model had Cardinals 15 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:04CIN +8% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
2nd · 11:54CIN +7% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:11CIN +5% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 43 for 13 yards (30-D.Hall).
2nd · 10:59ARI +5% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 30 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).
1st · 12:12ARI +5% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Iosivas (29-D.Burke) [91-L.Collier].
1st · 9:25CIN +3% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 13-yard touchdown catch with 9:25 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:25Ja'Marr Chase·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+70–7
2nd15:00Samaje Perine·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+60–13
Bengals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.34Bengals: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.48Bengals: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 54 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Bengals 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's blitz rate sent, 9.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 51.2% in week 16 against 73.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bengals19.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 16.7 points above their season mean of 50.0% and 1.4 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:54 · Cardinals · 2nd & 3 at CIN 38 · gained 38 · +3.81 EP · +12.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 92 yards from the ARI 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.4968%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.1478%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1237%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.3287%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3440%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Cardinals0Bengals6
Cardinals0Bengals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Cardinals 13
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended15 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Cardinals 2
2nd quarter52 plays
Cardinals0Bengals13
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cardinals6Bengals13
Cardinals7Bengals13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Bengals 38
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 38
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 35
Cardinals7Bengals16
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 2 to the Cardinals 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 29
Cardinals7Bengals22
Cardinals7Bengals23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 8
The period ended12 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Cardinals7Bengals29
Cardinals7Bengals30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Cardinals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 18
Cardinals7Bengals36
Cardinals7Bengals37
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 41
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Bengals 18
Punt11 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Cardinals 45
Cardinals13Bengals37
Cardinals14Bengals37
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Bengals 18
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
