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2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

14

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

37

CIN -7 ✓U 52.5 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 37–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:04, CIN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CINARI
Q1 · 12:04ARI 0CIN 0CIN ball · 3rd & 10CIN 69%

(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:04CIN +8% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
  2. Q2 · 11:54CIN +7% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 14:11CIN +5% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 43 for 13 yards (30-D.Hall).
  4. Q2 · 10:59ARI +5% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 30 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:25CIN Touchdown

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0CIN 7
  2. Q2 · 15:00CIN Touchdown

    (15:00) 61-C.Ford and 62-L.Patrick reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ARI 0CIN 13
  3. Q2 · 11:54ARI Touchdown

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7CIN 13
  4. Q2 · 3:25CIN Field goal

    (3:25) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: ARI 7CIN 16
  5. Q2 · 1:17CIN Touchdown

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7CIN 23
  6. Q3 · 7:38CIN Touchdown

    (7:38) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7CIN 30
  7. Q3 · 1:41CIN Touchdown

    (1:41) 30-C.Brown right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7CIN 37
  8. Q4 · 1:56ARI Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 14CIN 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsBengals
Offensive plays5470
Total yards233433 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.050.34 (edge)
Success rate35%51% (edge)
Dropback rate76%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.020.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.15 (edge)
Third downs3/1310/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1227 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers00

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/31, 305 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.0 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

21/37, 212 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

22 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

7 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

5/10 for 89 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

10/13 for 76 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 2814725:43Touchdown +7
2ARIARI 35561:29Punt
3CINCIN 2113687:50Touchdown +6
4ARIARI 307653:14Touchdown +7
5CINCIN 355-51:30Punt
6ARIARI 33421:05Punt
7CINCIN 210605:48Field goal +3
8ARIARI 27521:00Punt
9CINARI 364361:06Touchdown +7
10ARIARI 297161:01Punt
11CINCIN 9100:14End of half
12ARIARI 325-31:03Punt
13CINCIN 1612796:24Touchdown +7
14ARIARI 17511:10Punt
15CINCIN 1811824:45Touchdown +7
16ARIARI 2914524:32Turnover on downs
17CINCIN 1411415:46Punt
18ARIARI 817924:30Touchdown +7
19CINCIN 35401:50End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett21/37212204-0.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Michael Carter7294.100.7
Emari Demercado5112.20-1.6
Corey Kiner122.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Wilson51089129%4.4
Trey McBride101376137%3.0
Xavier Weaver232409%2.9
Michael Carter2414011%-0.4
Emari Demercado23909%-2.5
Elijah Higgins01003%-0.6
Marvin Harrison Jr.01003%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow24/3130520319.0
Joe Flacco3/524000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown221014.622.2
Tahj Brooks3103.30-0.5
Samaje Perine351.710.4
Joe Burrow320.701.7
Joe Flacco420.501.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase7960227%4.9
Tee Higgins4559015%5.2
Mike Gesicki224706%4.1
Andrei Iosivas4641018%1.3
Chase Brown334009%1.0
Tanner Hudson223106%4.7
Cody Ford112103%1.7
Tahj Brooks11903%0.6
Samaje Perine11803%1.3
Drew Sample11803%0.5
Ke'Shawn Williams11503%0.0
Noah Fant01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Joe Giles-Harris430.000
Myles Murphy421.000
Demetrius Knight Jr.140.000
Geno Stone310.000
Cedric Johnson221.000
Barrett Carter120.001
Tedarrell Slaton211.000
Bralyn Lux210.000
Jalen Davis210.000
Shemar Stewart111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -7
Closing total
52.5
ARI moneyline
+275
CIN moneyline
-345

Bengals closed -7 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
65°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
ARI 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Zac Taylor