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2025 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 27, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

41

Green Bay Packers

24

GB -2.5 upsetO 38.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, GB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑BAL ↓
Q3 · 2:44BAL 27 — GB 17GB ball · 3rd & 2BAL 79%

(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:44GB +12% win prob(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
  2. Q1 · 5:51GB +10% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 10:14GB +9% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare].
  4. Q4 · 7:02BAL +9% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass short left intended for 16-B.Melton INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 26. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 32 for 6 yards (0-M.Golden).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:03BAL Touchdown

    (7:03) 22-D.Henry right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — GB 0
  2. Q1 · 5:51GB Touchdown

    (5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 13:15BAL Touchdown

    (13:15) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB-97-J.Riley was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — GB 7
  4. Q2 · 7:13BAL Field goal

    (7:13) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — GB 7
  5. Q2 · 3:39BAL Field goal

    (3:39) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — GB 7
  6. Q2 · 1:30GB Touchdown

    (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — GB 14
  7. Q2 · 0:14BAL Touchdown

    (:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — GB 14
  8. Q3 · 9:13GB Field goal

    (9:13) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — GB 17
  9. Q3 · 2:08GB Touchdown

    (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — GB 24
  10. Q4 · 10:14BAL Touchdown

    (10:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 34 — GB 24
  11. Q4 · 2:02BAL Touchdown

    (2:02) 22-D.Henry left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 41 — GB 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensPackers
Offensive plays7343
Total yards415 (edge)364
Yards per play5.78.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.37 (edge)0.11
Success rate58% (edge)51%
Dropback rate33%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.410.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.35 (edge)-0.84
Third downs10/14 (edge)3/6
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)610 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps28 (edge)16
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Malik WillisQB

18/21, 288 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

18.1 expected points added · +21.3% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

16/20, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

36 att, 216 yds, 4 TD

16.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

8 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

5/6 for 113 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

3/3 for 62 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 2515808:05Touchdown +7
2GBGB 314791:11Touchdown +7
3BALBAL 2615797:31Touchdown +7
4GBGB 25591:53Turnover on downs
5BALGB 348304:10Field goal +3
6GBGB 27370:48Fumble
7BALGB 306142:46Field goal +3
8GBGB 247612:12Touchdown +7
9BALBAL 359551:14Touchdown +7
10GBGB 25200:10End of half
11GBGB 2612685:50Field goal +3
12BALBAL 348104:09Punt
13GBGB 148882:59Touchdown +7
14BALBAL 1514856:52Touchdown +7
15GBGB 288373:14Interception
16BALBAL 3211625:00Touchdown +7
17GBGB 357151:27Turnover on downs
18BAL50100:29End of game

11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley16/201071016.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry362166.0416.5
Tyler Huntley8607.504.8
Keaton Mitchell9313.40-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers4530125%3.7
Mark Andrews4428020%2.6
Isaiah Likely3327015%3.3
Rasheen Ali238015%-1.3
Keaton Mitchell227010%-0.0
Rashod Bateman11705%0.4
Charlie Kolar01005%-0.6
DeAndre Hopkins01005%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nate Wiggins700.000
Malaki Starks320.000
Travis Jones131.500
Trenton Simpson220.000
Tavius Robinson220.500
Kyle Hamilton220.000
Marlon Humphrey120.011
T.J. Tampa120.000
Alohi Gilman210.000
Roquan Smith120.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Malik Willis18/2128810118.1
Clayton Tune1/48011-6.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Malik Willis9606.72-1.5
Emanuel Wilson3165.30-0.1
Josh Jacobs430.80-4.5
Clayton Tune100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson56113124%8.2
Romeo Doubs3362012%5.6
Jayden Reed4441016%3.5
Bo Melton1334012%-2.2
Matthew Golden1312012%-1.3
Chris Brooks121108%0.1
Emanuel Wilson11804%0.2
Josh Whyle11804%0.5
Dontayvion Wicks11704%0.3
Josh Jacobs11004%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier McKinney670.000
Quay Walker661.000
Edgerrin Cooper460.000
Isaiah McDuffie610.000
Keisean Nixon340.001
Lukas Van Ness420.000
Colby Wooden330.000
Evan Williams410.000
Karl Brooks230.000
Kingsley Enagbare320.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -2.5
Closing total
38.5
BAL moneyline
+120
GB moneyline
-142

Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 65 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
BAL 6 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Matt LaFleur