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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 27, 2025 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q3 2:44, 3rd and 2, on Bo Melton — 11.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, Packers +11.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:44 · 3rd and 2
Bo Melton
Packers
(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.84 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Ravens at 6 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 6 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 13:15 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryPackers
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 73 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Packers’s 43 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 7, Packers 4.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's early-down pass rate, 77.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-20.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.3 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 73 snaps
Packers6.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.7 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 82%
Tendencies room →Ravens28.8%leaned — ran early · −17.1 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 59 early downs
Packers77.1%off script — passed early · +26.8 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Ravens20.8%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Packers28.1%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 57%
Tendencies room →Ravens28.1%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers29.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 37%
Tendencies room →Ravens12.5%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers16.7%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
GB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.1%, 26.8 points above their season mean of 50.3% and 2.3 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
18/21, 288 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
18.1 expected points added · +21.3% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
16/20, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.5 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
5/6 for 113 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Willis banked 15.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 45.6 | +15.5 | 63% | 42% | 0% | — | 36 car, 216 yd, 4 TD |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 31.5 | +15.8 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 18/21, 288 yd, 1 TD · 9 car, 60 yd, 2 TD |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 22.3 | +13.1 | 62% | 59% | 24% | 32% | 5/6, 113 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 14.3 | +0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/20, 107 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 60 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.0 | +4.1 | 68% | 100% | 25% | 23% | 4/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +4.8 | 57% | 53% | 12% | 17% | 3/3, 62 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +2.6 | 51% | 56% | 16% | 11% | 4/4, 41 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | +1.6 | 41% | 71% | 20% | 26% | 4/4, 28 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB · Receiving Back | 5.8 | −3.0 | 18% | 17% | 10% | 0% | 9 car, 31 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +1.6 | 70% | 67% | 15% | 21% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.4 | 36% | 38% | 12% | 18% | 1/3, 34 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 3.4 | +0.8 | 36% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 3 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB · Receiving Back | 2.8 | −1.1 | 20% | 46% | 15% | 8% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.4 | 53% | 59% | 12% | 20% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 2.1 | −0.6 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 64% | 66% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | 53% | 67% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh JacobsRB | 1.3 | −3.0 | 28% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 25% | 33% | 5% | 20% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | — | 57% | 25% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 49% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Clayton TuneQB | -1.7 | −3.0 | 17% | — | 0% | — | 1/4, 8 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:51 · Packers · 1st & 20 at BAL 39 · gained 39 · +3.79 EP · +12.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 93 yards from the GB 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Packers0Ravens7Packers0How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens7Packers6Ravens7Packers7Ravens13Packers7Ravens14Packers7Ravens17Packers7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Ravens20Packers7Ravens20Packers13Ravens20Packers14Ravens26Packers14Ravens27Packers14Ravens27Packers17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Ravens27Packers23Ravens27Packers24Ravens33Packers24Ravens34Packers24Ravens40Packers24Ravens41Packers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 16/20 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 36 | 216 | 6.0 | 4 | +16.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Keaton Mitchell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 25% | +3.7 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Wiggins | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 18/21 | 288 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18.1 |
| Clayton Tune | 1/4 | 8 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_BAL_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 65 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 31 |
| 3.4 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| +2.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 15% | +3.3 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 15% | −1.3 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Tampa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 2 | −1.5 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 6 | 113 | 1 | 24% | +8.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 | 12% | +5.6 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 16% | +3.5 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 12% | −2.2 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −1.3 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier McKinney | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Colby Wooden | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Brooks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
