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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 41 at Green Bay Packers 24. Final.
Packers -2.5 upsetO 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Baltimore Ravens 41, Packers 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:44, 3rd and 2, on Bo Melton — 11.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:44 · 3rd and 2
Bo Melton
Packers
(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, Packers +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian WatsonPackersQ1 5:51(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
Zay FlowersRavensQ4 10:14(10:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare].
8.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.84 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Ravens at 6 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 6 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Ravens153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Swing +11.9 for PackersExpected points +2.67 for PackersThe model had Ravens 2 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:44GB +12% win prob(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
1st · 5:51GB +10% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:14GB +9% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare].
4th · 7:02BAL +9% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass short left intended for 16-B.Melton INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 26. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 32 for 6 yards (0-M.Golden).
2nd · 6:27BAL +9% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by BAL-45-M.Green at GB 30.
2nd · 13:15GB +8% win prob(13:15) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB-97-J.Riley was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 13:15 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Ravens: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.44Packers: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.35Ravens: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.84Packers: −0.84 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 73 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Packers’s 43 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 7, Packers 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 77.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 68.1% in week 15.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 16.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Packers16.7%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.1%, 26.8 points above their season mean of 50.3% and 2.3 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Willis pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:51 · Packers · 1st & 20 at BAL 39 · gained 39 · +3.79 EP · +12.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 93 yards from the GB 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
55%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR22+0.355%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.2626%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.7250%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.7072%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.0250%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3455%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.4371%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Ravens6Packers0
Ravens7Packers0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Packers 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Ravens7Packers6
Ravens7Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Ravens 29
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Packers 18
2nd quarter49 plays
Ravens13Packers7
Ravens14Packers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 34
Ravens17Packers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 4
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 34
Ravens20Packers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 16
Ravens20Packers13
Ravens20Packers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Ravens 22
Ravens26Packers14
Ravens27Packers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Packers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Ravens27Packers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Ravens 6
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 46
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne corner, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Ravens27Packers23
Ravens27Packers24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Ravens 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 29
4th quarter41 plays
Ravens33Packers24
Ravens34Packers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Packers 10
Intercepted8 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Ravens 35
Ravens40Packers24
Ravens41Packers24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Packers 25
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 35 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
