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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q4 0:04, 2nd and 2, on Caleb Williams — 46.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 42–38. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, 49ers +46.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 2nd and 2
Caleb Williams
49ers
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
46.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Bears at 6 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bears at 8 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jauan Jennings's 38-yard touchdown catch with 2:23 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jauan Jennings38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+738–4212 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 63 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, 49ers 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's play-action rate, 39.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
CHI's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected, +2.9 pts, is past their previous high of +1.4 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CHI's early-down pass rate, 67.3%, is past their previous high of 62.2% in week 12 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Bears2.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 63 snaps
49ers-2.4 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 85%
Tendencies room →Bears67.3%leaned — passed early · +12.8 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 49 early downs
49ers50.9%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Bears31.1%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
49ers39.5%off script — faked the run · +17.1 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Bears50.0%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±19.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 59%
Tendencies room →Bears21.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers24.4%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bears2.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers6.7%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
SF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 22.4% and 2.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
25/42, 330 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
17.9 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected
Passing · SF
24/33, 303 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
12.7 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
8/9 for 138 yds, 1 TD
23% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added
Receiving · CHI
6/10 for 94 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Luther Burden III banked 13.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 36.9 | +9.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 303 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 28 yd, 2 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.1 | +3.2 | 85% | 82% | 18% | 3% | 23 car, 140 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 41 yd |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 27.8 | +13.3 | 58% | 57% | 23% | 32% | 8/9, 138 yd, 1 TD |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | −0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/42, 330 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 18 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | 21.9 | +10.9 | 59% | 59% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 54 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 25 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Alpha Receiver | 21.4 | +3.1 | 82% | 85% | 26% | 37% | 6/10, 94 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake TongesTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +1.1 | 69% | 84% | 27% | 22% | 7/9, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | −0.8 | 81% | 89% | 24% | 40% | 5/8, 85 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +5.2 | 90% | 95% | 12% | 15% | 2/4, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 9.4 | +4.6 | 54% | 53% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Receiving Back | 7.7 | −5.8 | 41% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 38 yd · 3/4, 9 yd |
| Jahdae WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −2.8 | 62% | 74% | 10% | 14% | 2/4, 30 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −1.5 | 35% | 32% | 6% | 11% | 2/2, 30 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 3.8 | −0.2 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.9 | 61% | 61% | 8% | 9% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.5 | 26% | 21% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | 21% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| DJ MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −6.7 | 92% | 91% | 10% | 8% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 17% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
Q4 0:04 · Bears · 2nd & goal at SF 2 · gained nothing · -3.64 EP · −46.5% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Bears6
49ers0Bears749ers0Bears749ers6Bears749ers7Bears749ers13Bears749ers14Bears1349ers14Bears1449ers14Bears1449ers20Bears1449ers21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Bears2049ers21Bears2149ers21Bears2149ers27Bears2149ers28Bears2749ers28Bears2849ers28Bears2849ers34Bears2849ers35How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Bears3449ers35Bears3549ers35Bears3849ers35How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bears3849ers41Bears3849ers42How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 25/42 | 330 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +17.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 2 | +4.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Caleb Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 8 | 9 | 138 | 1 | 23% | +11.1 |
| Colston Loveland | 6 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaquan Brisker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 24/33 | 303 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +12.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_CHI_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 80 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 18 |
| 3.6 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| 26% |
| +8.6 |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −2.7 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nahshon Wright | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Booker | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 23 | 140 | 6.1 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 24% | +9.2 |
| Jake Tonges | 7 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 27% | +3.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 12% | −5.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18% | +0.3 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 6% | +2.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 6% | +1.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bethune | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Winters | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upton Stout | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalia Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Luter Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Gifford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
