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Chicago Bears 38 at San Francisco 49ers 42. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
San Francisco 49ers 42, Bears 38 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 2nd and 2, on Caleb Williams — 46.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 2nd and 2
Caleb Williams
49ers
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
San Francisco 49ers 42–38. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, 49ers +46.1% win probability on one snap.
46.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. EdwardsBearsQ1 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.2pts
Jauan Jennings49ersQ4 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Bears at 6 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bears at 8 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Bears172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
Swing +46.1 for 49ersExpected points +3.64 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04CHI +46% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
4th · 2:23SF +29% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:54CHI +19% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:33SF +14% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).
4th · 1:09SF +14% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to SF 31 for 14 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
4th · 0:21SF +12% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 11 for 2 yards. Lateral to 4-D.Swift to SF 2 for 9 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 27-J.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 38-yard touchdown catch with 2:23 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Bears: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.2849ers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Bears: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.3649ers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Bears: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 63 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, 49ers 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 39.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 29.7% in week 15.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 16.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +2.9 pts, is past their previous high of +1.4 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 16.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's early-down pass rate, 67.3%, is past their previous high of 62.2% in week 12 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 22.4% and 2.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Ozzy TrapiloT · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
52Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%66 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
84Colston LovelandTE · Full-time82%54 snaps
20Jahdae WalkerWR · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation59%39 snaps
10Luther Burden IIIWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
25Kyle MonangaiRB · Rotational41%27 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Situational21%14 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Situational17%11 snaps
79Theo BenedetT · Situational6%4 snaps
92Daniel HardyDE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Nick McCloudCBDallis FlowersCBLuke NewmanGRuben Hyppolite IIOLBCase KeenumQBRome OdunzeWROlamide ZaccheausWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass−47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
Q4 0:04 · Bears · 2nd & goal at SF 2 · gained nothing · -3.64 EP · −46.5% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.25
Success rate
51%
Yards
936
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR35+0.1349%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2367%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4554%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2876%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.5829%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Bears649ers0
Touchdown2 plays
Bears749ers0
Bears749ers6
Bears749ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 36
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 22
Bears749ers13
Bears749ers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Bears 10
Bears1349ers14
Bears1449ers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 23 to the 49ers 35
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bears 33
2nd quarter46 plays
Bears1449ers20
Bears1449ers21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Bears2049ers21
Bears2149ers21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the 49ers 36
Bears2149ers27
Bears2149ers28
Touchdown20 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Bears 3
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 34
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 33
3rd quarter35 plays
Bears2749ers28
Bears2849ers28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 35 to the 49ers 2
Bears2849ers34
Bears2849ers35
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Bears 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 20 to the 49ers 27
4th quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne end, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears3449ers35
Bears3549ers35
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Bears 43
Bears3849ers35
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 11 to the 49ers 8
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bears3849ers41
Bears3849ers42
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bears 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.3 seconds
The period ended22 plays, from the Bears 35 to the 49ers 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
51.5
Bears moneyline
+170
49ers moneyline
-205
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 80 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
Bears 8 days · 49ers 6 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Kyle Shanahan
2nd · 12:28SF +12% win prob(12:28) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 84-C.Loveland for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-93-K.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 15:00SF +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 92-D.Hardy reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
