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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 30 at Washington Commanders 23. Final.
Cowboys -8.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Dallas Cowboys 30, Commanders 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:12, 3rd and 1, on Dak Prescott — 6.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:12 · 3rd and 1
Dak Prescott
Commanders
(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).
Cowboys closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:12, Commanders +6.8% win probability on one snap.
6.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
George PickensCowboysQ1 11:03(11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 7 for 19 yards (3-W.Harris).
6.2pts
Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommandersQ3 9:44(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 8 of 20 on third down, against Commanders at 1 of 6 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at +0.13 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys173 of 187 plays carry both curves
(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).
Swing +6.8 for CommandersExpected points +1.92 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 36 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:12DAL +7% win prob(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).
3rd · 9:44WAS +6% win prob(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:03WAS +6% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 7 for 19 yards (3-W.Harris).
3rd · 2:24WAS +6% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 19-C.Moore to DAL 34 for 15 yards (34-S.Revel). PENALTY on DAL-34-S.Revel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
1st · 7:45WAS +5% win prob(7:45) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at DAL 6 for 41 yards (6-D.Wilson; 34-S.Revel).
1st · 12:28WAS +5% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 43-M.Davis right guard to WAS 31 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin).
1st · 13:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Ferguson's 6-yard touchdown catch with 9:47 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:47Jake Ferguson·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+77–0
1st4:47Jake Moody·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+37–3
3rd4:47Brandon Aubrey·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+327–17
3rd0:19Jake Moody·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+327–20
4th4:02Brandon Aubrey·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+330–20
4th2:14Jake Moody·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+330–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Cowboys6–2Commanders
480Total yards328
5.5Yards per play8.2
48%Success rate43%
40%Third-down rate17%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
23First downs14
6Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Cowboys: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.17Commanders: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Cowboys: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.25Commanders: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 87 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Commanders’s 40 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Commanders 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 85.7%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 17 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 75.0% in week 15.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.4 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.4% in week 16 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Commanders20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 85.7%, 32.8 points above their season mean of 52.9% and 1.7 times their own 19.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Croskey-Merritt right+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:44 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 28 · gained 72 · +5.46 EP · +13.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 97 yards from the DAL 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.3658%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3564%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1637%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1414%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2233%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Cowboys6Commanders0
Cowboys7Commanders0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Commanders 6
Cowboys7Commanders3
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Cowboys 3
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Commanders 25
2nd quarter56 plays
Cowboys13Commanders3
Cowboys14Commanders3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 4
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys20Commanders3
Cowboys21Commanders3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 3 to the Cowboys 15
Cowboys21Commanders9
Cowboys21Commanders10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Cowboys 10
Cowboys24Commanders10
Field goal17 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Commanders 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 42
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 40
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys24Commanders16
Cowboys24Commanders17
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys27Commanders17
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Commanders 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cowboys27Commanders20
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
No good6 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Commanders 40
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys30Commanders20
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Commanders 33
Cowboys30Commanders23
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Cowboys 32
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Commanders 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
