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2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · FedExField

Dallas CowboysWinner

30

Washington Commanders

23

DAL -8.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:12, DAL +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑DAL ↓
Q1 · 13:12DAL 0 — WAS 0DAL ball · 3rd & 1DAL 80%

(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:12DAL +7% win prob(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).
  2. Q3 · 9:44WAS +6% win prob(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 11:03WAS +6% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 7 for 19 yards (3-W.Harris).
  4. Q3 · 2:24WAS +6% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 19-C.Moore to DAL 34 for 15 yards (34-S.Revel). PENALTY on DAL-34-S.Revel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:47DAL Touchdown

    (9:47) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 0
  2. Q1 · 4:47WAS Field goal

    (4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 3
  3. Q2 · 12:12DAL Touchdown

    (12:12) 33-J.Williams left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — WAS 3
  4. Q2 · 7:11DAL Touchdown

    (7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-4-F.Luvu, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 21 — WAS 3
  5. Q2 · 4:39WAS Touchdown

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 21 — WAS 10
  6. Q2 · 0:22DAL Field goal

    (:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — WAS 10
  7. Q3 · 9:44WAS Touchdown

    (9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — WAS 17
  8. Q3 · 4:47DAL Field goal

    (4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 17
  9. Q3 · 0:19WAS Field goal

    (:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 20
  10. Q4 · 4:02DAL Field goal

    (4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — WAS 20
  11. Q4 · 2:14WAS Field goal

    (2:14) 16-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — WAS 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysCommanders
Offensive plays8740
Total yards480 (edge)328
Yards per play5.58.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)0.20
Success rate48% (edge)43%
Dropback rate52%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.29 (edge)0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.25 (edge)
Third downs8/20 (edge)1/6
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)14
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers00

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

19/37, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.7 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Josh JohnsonQB

15/23, 198 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB

11 att, 105 yds, 2 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Malik DavisRB

20 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

George PickensWR

4/5 for 78 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR

2/4 for 68 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 2215695:18Touchdown +7
2WASWAS 249654:58Field goal +3
3DALDAL 3519687:38Touchdown +7
4WASWAS 297332:57Punt
5DALDAL 36972:09Touchdown +7
6WASWAS 407412:25Touchdown +7
7DALDAL 2613564:16Field goal +3
8WASWAS 35270:19End of half
9WASWAS 266142:12Punt
10DALDAL 77173:04Punt
11WASWAS 282720:10Touchdown +7
12DALDAL 1312434:52Field goal +3
13WASWAS 3511504:26Field goal +3
14DALDAL 247361:45Missed field goal
15WASWAS 48471:59Punt
16DALDAL 1514527:33Field goal +3
17WASWAS 288391:50Field goal +3
18DALDAL 278422:09End of game

11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 97 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott19/3730720611.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Malik Davis201035.20-0.2
Javonte Williams13544.215.2
Hunter Luepke7304.301.3
Dak Prescott4246.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
KaVontae Turpin118613%8.0
George Pickens4578014%7.0
CeeDee Lamb51046028%-1.2
Jalen Tolbert4831022%2.2
Brevyn Spann-Ford123106%1.9
Luke Schoonmaker221506%1.1
Hunter Luepke111403%0.1
Jake Ferguson12616%1.4
Malik Davis02006%-0.7
Javonte Williams02006%-2.7
Jonathan Mingo01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shavon Revel Jr.330.001
Shemar James330.000
Reddy Steward230.501
Donovan Wilson220.000
James Houston120.000
Markquese Bell120.000
Malik Hooker120.000
Quinnen Williams210.000
C.J. Goodwin110.000
Jadeveon Clowney111.500

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Johnson15/231980013.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jacory Croskey-Merritt111059.525.0
Deebo Samuel Sr.22512.500.8
Josh Johnson2105.00-0.1
Jeremy McNichols1-2-2.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel Sr.2468019%2.7
Terry McLaurin5763033%3.6
Ben Sinnott3429019%-0.2
Chris Moore111505%2.4
Jeremy McNichols3312014%-0.5
Treylon Burks1211010%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner550.501
Will Harris550.000
Jer'Zhan Newton363.000
Javon Kinlaw520.000
Frankie Luvu340.001
Noah Igbinoghene330.001
Mike Sainristil420.001
Jeremy Reaves420.001
Jalyn Holmes230.000
Ricky Barber231.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Closing total
50.5
DAL moneyline
-500
WAS moneyline
+380

Cowboys closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 53 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
50°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
DAL 4 days · WAS 5 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.