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2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · FedExField
30
23
Dallas Cowboys 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:12, DAL +7% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:12) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams (31-J.Jones).
How the points landed
(9:47) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 0(4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 3(12:12) 33-J.Williams left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 14 — WAS 3(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-4-F.Luvu, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 21 — WAS 3(4:39) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 21 — WAS 10(:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 24 — WAS 10(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 24 — WAS 17(4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 17(:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: DAL 27 — WAS 20(4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 30 — WAS 20(2:14) 16-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: DAL 30 — WAS 23Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 87 | 40 |
| Total yards | 480 (edge) | 328 |
| Yards per play | 5.5 | 8.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.21 (edge) | 0.20 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.29 (edge) | 0.17 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/20 (edge) | 1/6 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
19/37, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.7 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
15/23, 198 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Receiving · WAS
2/4 for 68 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DAL 22 | 15 | 69 | 5:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | WAS | WAS 24 | 9 | 65 | 4:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | DAL | DAL 35 | 19 | 68 | 7:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | WAS | WAS 29 | 7 | 33 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | DAL | DAL 3 | 6 | 97 | 2:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | WAS | WAS 40 | 7 | 41 | 2:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | DAL | DAL 26 | 13 | 56 | 4:16 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | WAS | WAS 35 | 2 | 7 | 0:19 | End of half | |
| 9 | WAS | WAS 26 | 6 | 14 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 10 | DAL | DAL 7 | 7 | 17 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 11 | WAS | WAS 28 | 2 | 72 | 0:10 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | DAL | DAL 13 | 12 | 43 | 4:52 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | WAS | WAS 35 | 11 | 50 | 4:26 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | DAL | DAL 24 | 7 | 36 | 1:45 | Missed field goal | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 48 | 4 | 7 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 16 | DAL | DAL 15 | 14 | 52 | 7:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | WAS | WAS 28 | 8 | 39 | 1:50 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | DAL | DAL 27 | 8 | 42 | 2:09 | End of game |
11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 97 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/37 | 307 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Davis | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 | 5.2 |
| Hunter Luepke | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 86 | 1 | 3% | 8.0 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 14% | 7.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shemar James | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 15/23 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 11 | 105 | 9.5 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 53 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -1.2 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6% | 1.9 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 22% | 2.2 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | 1.1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | 0.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6% | 1.4 |
| Malik Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -2.7 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| James Houston | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 | 19% | 2.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 33% | 3.6 |
| Ben Sinnott | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 19% | -0.2 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 2.4 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 14% | -0.5 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | -0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harris | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | 3 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalyn Holmes | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
