2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

DEN -13.5 no coverU 37.5 ✓Broncos closed -13.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, KC +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:00DEN 13 — KC 13DEN ball · 4th & 2DEN 77%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:00KC +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
Q3 · 2:53KC +10% win prob(2:53) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).
Q4 · 5:52KC +10% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 · 11:14DEN +10% win prob(11:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (92-D.Tillman).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:02DEN Field goal
(7:02) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — KC 0
Q2 · 12:56KC Touchdown
(12:56) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 24-B.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — KC 7
Q2 · 0:22DEN Field goal
(:22) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 6 — KC 7
Q3 · 11:47KC Field goal
(11:47) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: DEN 6 — KC 10
Q3 · 2:02DEN Touchdown
(2:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 13 — KC 10
Q4 · 8:08KC Field goal
(8:08) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — KC 13
Q4 · 1:50DEN Touchdown
(1:50) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 20 — KC 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chiefs
Offensive plays	70	41
Total yards	304 (edge)	139
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	3.4
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	51% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	63%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	-0.00 (edge)
Third downs	11/18 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

26/38, 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Chris OladokunQB

13/22, 66 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.5 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

14 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

9 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

4/10 for 40 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/6 for 36 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 35	15	56	8:02	Field goal +3
2	KC	KC 26	8	15	3:12	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 19	3	-2	0:53	Interception
4	KC	DEN 35	11	35	5:04	Touchdown +7
5	DEN	DEN 35	7	13	2:18	Punt
6	KC	KC 18	5	20	2:08	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 10	16	84	8:04	Field goal +3
8	KC	KC 24	2	9	0:19	End of half
9	KC	KC 37	7	1	3:18	Field goal +3
10	DEN	DEN 28	16	82	9:47	Touchdown +7
11	KC	KC 35	5	-1	2:04	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 20	7	11	3:52	Punt
13	KC	DEN 45	6	16	2:56	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 35	16	60	6:18	Touchdown +7
15	KC	KC 35	9	44	1:31	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 26	1	0	0:14	End of game

7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 84 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	26/38	182	1	1	1	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
RJ Harvey	14	43	3.1	0	-2.3
Bo Nix	9	42	4.7	1	5.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	7	40	5.7	0	1.5
Adam Prentice	2	3	1.5	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	4	10	40	0	27%	-1.1
RJ Harvey	5	6	33	1	16%	4.4
Adam Trautman	2	2	24	0	5%	2.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	5	23	0	14%	-1.6
Evan Engram	4	4	21	0	11%	-0.5
Troy Franklin	4	4	17	0	11%	0.8
Michael Bandy	2	2	14	0	5%	1.9
Marvin Mims Jr.	3	4	10	0	11%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Malcolm Roach	2	3	0.0
D.J. Jones	3	2	0.0
Pat Surtain II	4	1	0.0
P.J. Locke	2	2	0.0
Jahdae Barron	2	2	0.0
Alex Singleton	2	2	0.0
Eyioma Uwazurike	1	2	0.0
Riley Moss	2	1	0.0
Talanoa Hufanga	1	1	0.0
Dondrea Tillman	1	1	0.5

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chris Oladokun	13/22	66	1	0	1	-8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	7	38	5.4	1.9
Isiah Pacheco	9	32	3.6	-1.6
Chris Oladokun	2	11	5.5	0.3
Xavier Worthy	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	5	6	36	0	30%	1.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	3	16	0	15%	-0.1
Marquise Brown	1	3	7	0	15%	-3.1
Brashard Smith	3	4	5	1	20%	-1.0
Noah Gray	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.5
Xavier Worthy	0	3	0	0	15%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	6	6	0.0	1	1
Chamarri Conner	7	3	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	7	2	0.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	4	4	0.0	0	1
Nohl Williams	6	1	0.0	0	0
Charles Omenihu	3	2	0.0	0	0
Ashton Gillotte	1	3	0.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	2	1	0.0	0	3
Chris Jones	1	1	1.0	0	0
George Karlaftis	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -13.5
Closing total: 37.5
DEN moneyline: -1100
KC moneyline: +700

Broncos closed -13.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 33 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DEN 4 days · KC 4 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.