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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 29.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos142 of 151 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
Swing −11.3 for ChiefsExpected points −2.94 for ChiefsThe model had Chiefs 11 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00KC +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
3rd · 2:53KC +10% win prob(2:53) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).
4th · 5:52KC +10% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
4th · 11:14DEN +10% win prob(11:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (92-D.Tillman).
4th · 8:08KC +9% win prob(8:08) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
3rd · 13:23KC +7% win prob(13:23) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep left to 1-X.Worthy [15-N.Bonitto]. PENALTY on DEN-2-P.Surtain, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at DEN 48 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
RJ Harvey's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:50 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:02Wil Lutz·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
2nd12:56Brashard Smith·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Chris Oladokunfrom Chris Oladokun+73–7
2nd0:22Wil Lutz·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+36–7
3rd11:47Harrison Butker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+36–10
4th8:08Harrison Butker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+313–13
4th1:50RJ Harvey·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo NixLead never changed again+720–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos7–1Chiefs
304Total yards139
4.3Yards per play3.4
51%Success rate29%
61%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays2
21First downs9
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.20Chiefs: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.34Chiefs: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.00Chiefs: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 70 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 41 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Chiefs 1.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
DEN's play-action rate, 38.6%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 6 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 16.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
KC's play-action rate turned over: 9.7% in week 16 against 29.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Chiefs13.6%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.6%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 24.0% and 1.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%72 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%72 snaps
54Alex ForsythC · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%72 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time82%59 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
12RJ HarveyRB · Heavy rotation65%47 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation60%43 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 5:52 · Broncos · 3rd & 10 at KC 45 · gained 17 · +2.22 EP · +15.5% win probability
140 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 79 yards from the DEN 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
442
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0574%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.3148%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0975%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.1755%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.1725%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1643%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Broncos3Chiefs0
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chiefs 9
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 16
2nd quarter38 plays
Broncos3Chiefs6
Broncos3Chiefs7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 5
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 48
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 38
Broncos6Chiefs7
Field goal17 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Broncos6Chiefs10
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Broncos 21
Broncos12Chiefs10
Broncos13Chiefs10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Chiefs 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 41
4th quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 38
Broncos13Chiefs13
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Broncos19Chiefs13
Broncos20Chiefs13
Touchdown20 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chiefs 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Broncos 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
