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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 2 — 11.3 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Broncos +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 2
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Broncos won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 11 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 29.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
RJ Harvey's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:50 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 70 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 41 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Chiefs 1.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate, 38.6%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 6 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate, 50.0%, is past their previous low of 55.6% in week 8 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
28 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
KC's blitz rate sent, 20.5%, is past their previous low of 23.7% in week 3 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected, −7.1 pts, is past their previous low of −4.9 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
41 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
KC's play-action rate turned over: 9.7% in week 16 against 29.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos2.4 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 70 snaps
Chiefs-7.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.9 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 41 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 38% to 81%
Tendencies room →Broncos56.9%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 51 early downs
Chiefs50.0%leaned — ran early · −12.3 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 28 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Broncos38.6%leaned — faked the run · +14.6 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chiefs29.2%leaned — faked the run · +13.5 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.7%.
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Broncos16.7%leaned — sat back · −13.4 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Chiefs20.5%leaned — sat back · −19.2 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 45%
Tendencies room →Broncos25.0%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Chiefs13.6%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.6%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 24.0% and 1.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
26/38, 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.9 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
Passing · KC
13/22, 66 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.5 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
4/10 for 40 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brashard Smith banked 3.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 19.5 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 182 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| RJ HarveyRB · Committee Back | 18.6 | +0.1 | 65% | 59% | 16% | 0% | 14 car, 43 yd · 5/6, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Brashard SmithRB · Receiving Back | 9.5 | +3.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | +1.3 | 98% | 92% | 30% | 37% | 5/6, 36 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −10.0 | 82% | 91% | 27% | 52% | 4/10, 40 yd |
| Chris OladokunQB · Starter QB | 7.7 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/22, 66 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 11 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.2 | 31% | 36% | 11% | 3% | 4/4, 21 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +0.7 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 4% | 4/4, 17 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.7 | 81% | 84% | 15% | 11% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.3 | 72% | 64% | 5% | 10% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −3.0 | 60% | 61% | 14% | 19% | 2/5, 23 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4.0 | +0.2 | 22% | 18% | 0% | — | 7 car, 40 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.8 | 47% | 61% | 11% | 7% | 3/4, 10 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 3.8 | +0.3 | 56% | 60% | 0% | — | 7 car, 38 yd |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 3.2 | −1.3 | 35% | 20% | 0% | — | 9 car, 32 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.3 | 60% | 76% | 15% | 32% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | 0.0 | 49% | 48% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.3 | −2.9 | 29% | 23% | 0% | — | 2 car, 3 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −4.2 | 79% | 68% | 15% | 34% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 0.0 | — | 11% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 5:52 · Broncos · 3rd & 10 at KC 45 · gained 17 · +2.22 EP · +15.5% win probability
140 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 79 yards from the DEN 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos3
Chiefs0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos3Chiefs6Broncos3Chiefs7Broncos6Chiefs7Broncos6Chiefs10Broncos12Chiefs10Broncos13Chiefs10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Broncos13Chiefs13How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Broncos19Chiefs13Broncos20Chiefs13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 26/38 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Bo Nix | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 27% | −1.1 |
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Surtain II | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Oladokun | 13/22 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_DEN_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -13.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 33 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 40 |
| 5.7 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| Adam Prentice | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +4.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 14% | −1.6 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11% | −0.5 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Michael Bandy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Chris Oladokun | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 30% | +1.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15% | −0.1 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15% | −3.1 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 20% | −1.0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chamarri Conner | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nohl Williams | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
