For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit10
BY 13final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
Detroit Lions 10 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
Lions -7 upsetU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Minnesota Vikings 23, Lions 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:52, 2nd and 10, on Jordan Addison — 21.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:52 · 2nd and 10
Jordan Addison
Vikings
(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 23–10. Biggest swing: Q4 3:52, Vikings +21.7% win probability on one snap.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison SmithVikingsQ3 2:57(2:57) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at DET 43. 22-H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (14-A.St. Brown).
16.1pts
Jared GoffVikingsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (sack split by 15-D.Turner and 43-A.Van Ginkel). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner) [15-D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-61-J.Redmond at DET 40.
17.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 6 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.72 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — -0.23 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.63 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions150 of 163 plays carry both curves
(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.7 for VikingsExpected points +5.94 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 9 points higher than the market did.play 138
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:52MIN +22% win prob(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00DET +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (sack split by 15-D.Turner and 43-A.Van Ginkel). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner) [15-D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-61-J.Redmond at DET 40.
3rd · 2:57DET +16% win prob(2:57) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at DET 43. 22-H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (14-A.St. Brown).
3rd · 3:07MIN +11% win prob(3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2nd · 10:22MIN +10% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 42 for 28 yards (23-F.Moreau).
1st · 3:46DET +9% win prob(3:46) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 18, RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at DET 16.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 52-yard field goal with 3:07 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th1:08Will Reichard·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+310–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryVikings
Lions6–1Vikings
231Total yards161
3.6Yards per play3.2
31%Success rate29%
36%Third-down rate23%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays3
16First downs8
5Sacks taken7
6Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.46Lions: −0.46 expected points added per play
−0.28Vikings: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Lions: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.63Vikings: −0.63 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.72Lions: −0.72 expected points added per play
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Vikings 2.
NoteLions outgained Vikings 231-161 but lost the turnover battle 6-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 36.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 29.0% in week 9.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 16.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 64.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 9.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 58.8% in week 8.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.5 pts in week 16 against −16.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.4% in week 16 against 50.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +19.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Vikings23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 36.0%, 19.7 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 2.3 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Addison right+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:52 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at MIN 35 · gained 65 · +5.94 EP · +16.9% win probability
148 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 80 yards from the DET 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
33%
Yards
392
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0889%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.8628%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.6575%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0518%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1840%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.1410%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1117%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Vikings 45
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Lions 32
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Lions 18
Lions0Vikings6
Lions0Vikings7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 32
2nd quarter39 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Vikings 49
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Lions6Vikings7
Lions7Vikings7
Touchdown21 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Vikings 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Vikings 48
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 21
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 37
Lions7Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Lions 29
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Lions7Vikings13
Field goal4 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Lions 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 40
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 29
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 1 to the Vikings 6
Lions10Vikings13
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Vikings 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Lions10Vikings19
Lions10Vikings20
Touchdown5 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Vikings 43
Lions10Vikings23
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Vikings 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7
Closing total
45.5
Lions moneyline
-360
Vikings moneyline
+285
Lions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Lions 4 days · Vikings 4 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Kevin O'Connell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:39
DET +9% win prob
(:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer sacked at MIN 34 for -10 yards (96-A.Muhammad).
2nd · 1:10MIN +8% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.
