2025 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 25, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Detroit Lions

Minnesota VikingsWinner

DET -7 upsetU 45.5 ✓DomeLions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 23–10. Biggest swing: Q4 3:52, MIN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:52DET 10 — MIN 19MIN ball · 2nd & 10MIN 68%

(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:52MIN +22% win prob(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 15:00DET +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (sack split by 15-D.Turner and 43-A.Van Ginkel). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner) [15-D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-61-J.Redmond at DET 40.
Q3 · 2:57DET +16% win prob(2:57) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at DET 43. 22-H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (14-A.St. Brown).
Q3 · 3:07MIN +11% win prob(3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:38MIN Touchdown
(1:38) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — MIN 7
Q2 · 1:10DET Touchdown
(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 7
Q3 · 3:07MIN Field goal
(3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 10
Q3 · 2:02MIN Field goal
(2:02) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 13
Q4 · 4:44DET Field goal
(4:44) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 10 — MIN 13
Q4 · 3:52MIN Touchdown
(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 10 — MIN 20
Q4 · 1:08MIN Field goal
(1:08) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: DET 10 — MIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Vikings
Offensive plays	64	51
Total yards	231 (edge)	161
Yards per play	3.6 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.46	-0.28 (edge)
Success rate	31% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	53%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.63
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.72	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	5 (edge)	7
Turnovers	6	0 (edge)

Lions outgained Vikings 231–161 but lost the turnover battle 6–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

18/29, 197 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Max BrosmerQB

9/16, 51 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-17.6 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

18 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

17 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-10.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/13 for 68 yds, 0 TD

45% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Isaac TeSlaaWR

3/4 for 49 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	-6	1:37	Punt
2	DET	DET 37	5	18	2:49	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 20	10	24	5:59	Punt
4	DET	DET 9	3	9	0:53	Fumble
5	MIN	DET 16	6	16	2:07	Touchdown +7
6	DET	DET 30	5	17	2:20	Fumble
7	MIN	DET 47	4	-2	3:02	Punt
8	DET	DET 20	20	80	10:08	Touchdown +7
9	MIN	MIN 35	5	4	0:47	Punt
10	DET	DET 20	1	-5	0:18	End of half
11	DET	DET 33	7	19	3:55	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 14	4	7	1:32	Punt
13	DET	DET 36	3	-8	1:36	Interception
14	MIN	MIN 38	9	23	4:54	Field goal +3
15	DET	DET 30	2	0	0:11	Interception
16	MIN	DET 42	4	4	0:55	Field goal +3
17	DET	DET 34	5	6	2:03	Fumble
18	MIN	DET 40	4	0	1:59	Punt
19	DET	DET 16	7	13	4:02	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 1	4	5	1:41	Punt
21	DET	DET 45	7	25	2:33	Field goal +3
22	MIN	MIN 35	4	65	0:56	Touchdown +7
23	DET	DET 35	5	22	0:38	Fumble
24	MIN	DET 45	7	21	2:01	Field goal +3
25	DET	DET 35	5	35	1:04	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 80 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	18/29	197	1	2	5	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jahmyr Gibbs	17	41	2.4	-10.2
David Montgomery	10	25	2.5	-1.7
Jared Goff	3	2	0.7	-9.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	13	68	0	45%	-0.4
Isaac TeSlaa	3	4	49	1	14%	6.8
Jameson Williams	2	3	37	0	10%	2.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	2	3	23	0	10%	-0.8
David Montgomery	2	2	15	0	7%	0.4
Kalif Raymond	1	2	5	0	7%	-2.8
Giovanni Ricci	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Anthony Firkser	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Daniel Thomas	3	4	0.0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	4	2	2.0	0
Jack Campbell	2	4	0.0	0
Derrick Barnes	1	4	0.0	0
Marcus Davenport	2	2	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	0	4	0.0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	3	1	0.0	0
Thomas Harper	1	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Rodriguez	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	1	1.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Max Brosmer	9/16	51	0	0	7	-17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Addison	1	65	65.0	1	5.9
Aaron Jones	18	53	2.9	1	-3.3
Ty Chandler	7	24	3.4	0	-1.0
Max Brosmer	2	16	8.0	0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	4	5	30	36%	0.7
Aaron Jones	3	4	10	29%	-2.9
Josh Oliver	1	2	8	14%	0.2
Ben Sims	1	1	3	7%	-0.5
Jordan Addison	0	1	0	7%	-0.6
Jalen Nailor	0	1	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	6	11	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jay Ward	3	2	0.0	0	0
Dallas Turner	2	3	0.5	0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	3	1.5	0	0
Eric Wilson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Theo Jackson	2	2	1.0	0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	2	2	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	3	0	1.0	1	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -7
Closing total: 45.5
DET moneyline: -360
MIN moneyline: +285

Lions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: DET 4 days · MIN 4 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.