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2025 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 27, 2025 · SoFi Stadium
20
16
Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
How the points landed
(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — LAC 0(9:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 14 — LAC 0(6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: HOU 14 — LAC 3(6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 17 — LAC 3(:17) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 17 — LAC 10(6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — LAC 10(3:40) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — LAC 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 59 |
| Total yards | 364 (edge) | 275 |
| Yards per play | 6.2 (edge) | 4.7 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 (edge) | -0.22 |
| Success rate | 39% (edge) | 32% |
| Dropback rate | 47% | 71% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | -0.15 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 (edge) | -0.38 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
16/28, 244 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-4.7 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
21/32, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-8.9 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
5/8 for 98 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 16 | 5 | 84 | 1:40 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | LAC | LAC 35 | 5 | -4 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 28 | 5 | 72 | 2:02 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 26 | 8 | 13 | 4:16 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 21 | 7 | 12 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 6 | LAC | LAC 18 | 4 | 6 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 17 | 9 | 46 | 4:31 | Punt | |
| 8 | LAC | LAC 8 | 4 | 7 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 36 | 3 | 5 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 10 | LAC | HOU 37 | 6 | 28 | 2:38 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 23 | 7 | 19 | 2:51 | Punt | |
| 12 | LAC | LAC 13 | 5 | 73 | 2:13 | Interception | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 1 | 4 | 21 | 0:21 | Interception | |
| 14 | LAC | HOU 32 | 5 | 8 | 0:35 | Missed field goal | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 22 | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 16 | LAC | LAC 35 | 5 | 6 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 15 | 4 | 11 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 30 | 4 | -5 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 19 | HOU | LAC 47 | 7 | 34 | 3:34 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | LAC | LAC 36 | 13 | 59 | 5:51 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 6 | 2:00 | Punt | |
| 22 | LAC | LAC 2 | 7 | 19 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 23 | HOU | HOU 45 | 7 | 24 | 4:07 | Field goal +3 | |
| 24 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 65 | 2:52 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 25 | HOU | HOU 26 | 9 | 30 | 3:37 | End of game |
7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 84 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/28 | 244 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Higgins | 2 | 4 | 88 | 1 | 15% | 1.6 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 15% | 4.3 |
| Jaylin Noel | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry To'oTo'o | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Pitre |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 36 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 12% | 0.2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | -2.9 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | -2.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19% | -5.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| K'Von Wallace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damone Clark | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 1 | -4.6 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 | 26% | 6.2 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 19% | -5.7 |
| Omarion Hampton | 8 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 26% | -3.3 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6% | 1.4 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | 2.6 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10% | -0.1 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 2 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Molden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
