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2025 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 27, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

20

Los Angeles Chargers

16

LAC -1.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑HOU ↓
Q2 · 1:52HOU 14 — LAC 3LAC ball · 3rd & 13HOU 81%

(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:52LAC +15% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
  2. Q1 · 13:30LAC +13% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 1:12HOU +9% win prob(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. 0-A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.
  4. Q2 · 0:49HOU +9% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 2-E.Molden at HOU 32. 2-E.Molden to HOU 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:30HOU Touchdown

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — LAC 0
  2. Q1 · 9:24HOU Touchdown

    (9:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — LAC 0
  3. Q2 · 6:13LAC Field goal

    (6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — LAC 3
  4. Q3 · 6:07HOU Field goal

    (6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — LAC 3
  5. Q3 · 0:17LAC Touchdown

    (:17) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — LAC 10
  6. Q4 · 6:33HOU Field goal

    (6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LAC 10
  7. Q4 · 3:40LAC Touchdown

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LAC 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansChargers
Offensive plays5959
Total yards364 (edge)275
Yards per play6.2 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play-0.15 (edge)-0.22
Success rate39% (edge)32%
Dropback rate47%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17-0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.14 (edge)-0.38
Third downs3/116/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps14 (edge)13
Sacks taken0 (edge)5
Turnovers21 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

16/28, 244 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.7 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/32, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.9 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

19 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

6 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

5/8 for 98 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Jayden HigginsWR

2/4 for 88 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 165841:40Touchdown +7
2LACLAC 355-42:01Punt
3HOUHOU 285722:02Touchdown +7
4LACLAC 268134:16Punt
5HOUHOU 217122:57Punt
6LACLAC 18461:28Punt
7HOUHOU 179464:31Punt
8LACLAC 8471:25Punt
9HOUHOU 36350:52Interception
10LACHOU 376282:38Field goal +3
11HOUHOU 237192:51Punt
12LACLAC 135732:13Interception
13HOUHOU 14210:21Interception
14LACHOU 32580:35Missed field goal
15HOUHOU 22100:10End of half
16LACLAC 35561:35Punt
17HOUHOU 154111:39Punt
18LACLAC 304-52:08Punt
19HOULAC 477343:34Field goal +3
20LACLAC 3613595:51Touchdown +7
21HOUHOU 25762:00Punt
22LACLAC 27192:37Punt
23HOUHOU 457244:07Field goal +3
24LACLAC 259652:52Touchdown +6
25HOUHOU 269303:37End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 84 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud16/28244220-4.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks19713.70-3.1
Jawhar Jordan8364.50-0.1
Xavier Hutchinson188.000.4
Jaylin Noel122.00-1.0
Nick Chubb111.00-0.6
C.J. Stroud400.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Higgins2488115%1.6
Nico Collins3457015%4.3
Jaylin Noel3454115%2.7
Xavier Hutchinson2321012%0.2
Dalton Schultz3419015%-2.9
Woody Marks12408%-2.5
Christian Kirk251019%-5.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o570.000
Kamari Lassiter510.001
Azeez Al-Shaair240.011
Jalen Pitre410.001
Tommy Togiai130.000
K'Von Wallace220.000
Tremon Smith220.000
Danielle Hunter221.000
Derek Stingley Jr.210.001
Derek Barnett202.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/32236115-8.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert6376.201.0
Omarion Hampton14292.11-4.6
Tre Harris177.000.3
Jaret Patterson111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quentin Johnston5898026%6.2
Oronde Gadsden II3632119%-5.7
Omarion Hampton8831026%-3.3
Ladd McConkey123106%1.4
Will Dissly221906%2.6
Keenan Allen1317010%-0.1
Tre Harris11803%1.4
KeAndre Lambert-Smith01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley290.000
Derwin James440.011
Tarheeb Still510.000
Del'Shawn Phillips150.000
Khalil Mack220.000
Teair Tart120.001
Tony Jefferson120.000
Marcus Williams300.000
Elijah Molden210.011
Otito Ogbonnia110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -1.5
Closing total
40.5
HOU moneyline
-102
LAC moneyline
-118

Chargers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 36 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
HOU 6 days · LAC 6 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Jim Harbaugh