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Houston Texans 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 16. Final.
Chargers -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Houston Texans 20, Chargers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:52, 3rd and 13, on Quentin Johnston — 14.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:52 · 3rd and 13
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
U 40.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, Chargers +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jayden HigginsTexansQ1 13:30(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.8pts
Azeez Al-ShaairTexansQ2 1:12(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. 0-A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.
9.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Texans159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
Swing +14.7 for ChargersExpected points +4.86 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 69
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:52LAC +15% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
1st · 13:30LAC +13% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:12HOU +9% win prob(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. 0-A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.
2nd · 0:49HOU +9% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 2-E.Molden at HOU 32. 2-E.Molden to HOU 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
1st · 9:24LAC +8% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:24LAC +8% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-W.Dissly pushed ob at LAC 19 for 18 yards (5-J.Pitre).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jayden Higgins's 75-yard touchdown catch with 13:30 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th6:33Ka'imi Fairbairn·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+320–10
4th3:40Omarion Hampton·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+620–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChargers
Texans6–3Chargers
364Total yards275
6.2Yards per play4.7
39%Success rate32%
27%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays4
14First downs13
0Sacks taken5
2Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.22Chargers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.38Chargers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 59 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Chargers 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 35.4%, is past their previous low of 45.8% in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, −8.1 pts, is past their previous low of −6.4 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chargers3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.6 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.4%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 54.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:30 · Texans · 3rd & 1 at HOU 25 · gained 75 · +6.25 EP · +19.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 84 yards from the HOU 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1963%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2572%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.0713%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Texans6Chargers0
Texans7Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 25
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 40
Texans13Chargers0
Texans14Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Chargers 43
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 24
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chargers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 15
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 41
Texans14Chargers3
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 8
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 42
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Texans 14
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 22
No good8 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 21
Punt4 plays
Texans17Chargers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Chargers 20
Texans17Chargers9
Texans17Chargers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Texans 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 46
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 21
Texans20Chargers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Chargers 26
Texans20Chargers16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Texans 5
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Chargers 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -1.5
Closing total
40.5
Texans moneyline
-102
Chargers moneyline
-118
Chargers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 36 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Texans 6 days · Chargers 6 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Jim Harbaugh
4th · 3:28
LAC +8% win prob
(3:28) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to HOU 45 for 19 yards (3-D.James).
3rd · 2:51LAC +8% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle ran ob at HOU 16 for 28 yards (5-J.Pitre). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
