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2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

23

Indianapolis Colts

17

JAX -3.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓Dome

Jacksonville Jaguars 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 7:59, JAX +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 7:59JAX 17 — IND 17IND ball · 3rd & 4JAX 56%

(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:59JAX +19% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
  2. Q1 · 6:13JAX +18% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-52-S.Ebukam at IND 17.
  3. Q3 · 8:03IND +15% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at IND 6 for 37 yards (43-C.Mitchell) [51-K.Paye]. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q2 · 2:00IND +13% win prob(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to IND 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-J.Downs to IND 10 for no gain (25-R.Lane).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:18IND Field goal

    (11:18) 10-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — IND 3
  2. Q2 · 12:52IND Touchdown

    (12:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — IND 10
  3. Q2 · 5:45JAX Touchdown

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 10
  4. Q3 · 7:30JAX Touchdown

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 10
  5. Q3 · 6:02IND Touchdown

    (6:02) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 17
  6. Q3 · 1:29JAX Field goal

    (1:29) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — IND 17
  7. Q4 · 7:03JAX Field goal

    (7:03) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — IND 17
  8. Q4 · 0:24JAX Field goal

    (:24) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 23 — IND 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsColts
Offensive plays6854
Total yards370 (edge)205
Yards per play5.4 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play0.01 (edge)-0.21
Success rate44% (edge)35%
Dropback rate63%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.04 (edge)
Third downs7/14 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)14
Sacks taken22
Turnovers22

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/37, 263 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

6.4 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

17/30, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

17 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

8/10 for 115 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brenton StrangeTE

3/5 for 54 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDJAX 449293:46Field goal +3
2JAXJAX 189655:08Fumble
3INDIND 1716788:17Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 3114697:11Touchdown +7
5INDIND 246211:50Punt
6JAXJAX 325-31:58Punt
7INDIND 10430:58Punt
8JAXJAX 405440:37Interception
9INDIND 20100:15End of half
10JAXJAX 365-21:50Punt
11INDIND 206173:02Punt
12JAXJAX 199812:42Touchdown +7
13INDJAX 397231:28Touchdown +7
14JAXJAX 3311514:33Field goal +3
15INDIND 35522:24Punt
16JAXJAX 309464:36Turnover on downs
17INDIND 24361:31Interception
18JAXIND 214-30:56Field goal +3
19INDIND 357143:52Turnover on downs
20JAXIND 488222:48Field goal +3
21INDIND 354120:18Interception

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence23/372630126.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne17764.50-1.1
Trevor Lawrence8263.32-0.6
DeeJay Dallas22110.501.4
LeQuint Allen Jr.133.00-0.3
Parker Washington1-5-5.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington810115027%4.8
Brenton Strange3554014%4.4
Brian Thomas Jr.4739019%0.8
Jakobi Meyers6939024%-4.7
Travis Etienne231608%0.3
DeeJay Dallas01003%-0.5
Johnny Mundt01003%-0.7
Tim Patrick01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun580.000
Josh Hines-Allen331.001
Montaric Brown420.002
Andrew Wingard320.000
Devin Lloyd140.001
Travon Walker401.000
Eric Murray210.001
DaVon Hamilton110.000
LeQuint Allen Jr.100.000
Antonio Johnson100.011

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers17/30147112-11.5
Riley Leonard0/10010-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor21703.310.9
Philip Rivers1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Warren5543017%4.2
Josh Downs2534017%-4.9
Mo Alie-Cox3320110%2.1
Will Mallory111603%1.5
Michael Pittman2316010%-0.7
Jonathan Taylor3614021%-2.8
Ameer Abdullah11403%-0.2
Alec Pierce050017%-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross930.000
Kenny Moore II820.000
Cameron Mitchell430.002
Germaine Pratt520.012
Zaire Franklin140.000
Camryn Bynum310.000
Sauce Gardner210.001
Adetomiwa Adebawore211.000
Samson Ebukam110.000
Ashton Dulin110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Closing total
48.5
JAX moneyline
-225
IND moneyline
+185

Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 40 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
JAX 7 days · IND 6 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.