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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville23
BY 6final margin
ColtsIndianapolis17
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 at Indianapolis Colts 17. Final.
Jaguars -3.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Colts 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:59, 3rd and 4, on J.Jones — 18.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:59 · 3rd and 4
J.Jones
Jaguars
(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
Dome
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Jacksonville Jaguars 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 7:59, Jaguars +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jakobi MeyersColtsQ1 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-52-S.Ebukam at IND 17.
17.7pts
Parker WashingtonJaguarsQ3 8:03(8:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at IND 6 for 37 yards (43-C.Mitchell) [51-K.Paye]. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined.
14.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Colts at 1 chunk play.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
Swing −18.5 for ColtsExpected points −5.47 for ColtsThe model had Colts 11 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:59JAX +19% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
1st · 6:13JAX +18% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-52-S.Ebukam at IND 17.
3rd · 8:03IND +15% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at IND 6 for 37 yards (43-C.Mitchell) [51-K.Paye]. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 2:00IND +13% win prob(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to IND 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-J.Downs to IND 10 for no gain (25-R.Lane).
4th · 9:30JAX +12% win prob(9:30) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-A.Adebawore). (Virtual Measurement).
4th · 3:54JAX +11% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at IND 49 for -6 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Little's 42-yard field goal with 7:03 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:18Blake Grupe·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
3rd6:02Mo Alie-Cox·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+714–17
3rd1:29Cam Little·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+317–17
4th7:03Cam Little·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+320–17
4th0:24Cam Little·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+323–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars6–0Colts
370Total yards205
5.4Yards per play3.8
44%Success rate35%
50%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays1
21First downs14
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.36Colts: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Colts’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Colts 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 46.5%, is past their previous high of 43.2% in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts16.3%
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteIND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.5%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 32.0% and 1.4 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Walker LittleT · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Jonah MonheimC · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Cole Van LanenT · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
3Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time94%65 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Full-time81%56 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Situational19%13 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Situational17%12 snaps
80Quintin MorrisTE · Situational14%10 snaps
20DeeJay DallasRB · Situational14%10 snaps
64Wyatt MilumG · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Robert HainseyCKeith TaylorCBDanny StriggowDEMaason SmithDTPatrick MekariGBhayshul TutenRBHunter LongTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-G.Pratt at IND -6. Touchback.
Q2 0:21 · Jaguars · 2nd & 3 at IND 16 · gained nothing · -3.99 EP · −19.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 83 yards from the IND 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
574
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1871%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3576%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0329%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3527%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0140%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Jaguars0Colts3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Colts 17
The period ended13 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Jaguars 19
2nd quarter45 plays
Jaguars0Colts9
Jaguars0Colts10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 2
Jaguars6Colts10
Jaguars7Colts10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Colts 4
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Colts 16
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 39
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Jaguars13Colts10
Jaguars14Colts10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Colts 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jaguars14Colts16
Jaguars14Colts17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars17Colts17
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Colts 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 36
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 32
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 30
Jaguars20Colts17
Field goal4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Jaguars 45
Jaguars23Colts17
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Jaguars 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -3.5
Closing total
48.5
Jaguars moneyline
-225
Colts moneyline
+185
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 40 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Colts 6 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Shane Steichen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:21JAX +11% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-G.Pratt at IND -6. Touchback.
3rd · 7:08IND +10% win prob(7:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 2-J.Downs pushed ob at JAX 21 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard). Jacksonville challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
