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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q4 7:59, 3rd and 4, on J.Jones — 18.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 7:59, Jaguars +18.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:59 · 3rd and 4
J.Jones
Jaguars
(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Colts at 1 chunk play.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cam Little's 42-yard field goal with 7:03 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Cam Little42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+320–178 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Colts’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Colts 3.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's blitz rate sent, 46.5%, is past their previous high of 43.2% in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars3.5 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 68 snaps
Colts-3.9 ptsright on their number · −3.3 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 81%
Tendencies room →Jaguars61.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 52 early downs
Colts54.8%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Jaguars20.9%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts15.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.0 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 138%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars66.7%inside their normal wobble · +19.1 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 59%
Tendencies room →Jaguars33.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts46.5%leaned — sent pressure · +14.5 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Jaguars15.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts16.3%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
IND's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.5%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 32.0% and 1.4 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/37, 263 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
6.4 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected
Passing · IND
17/30, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-11.5 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
8/10 for 115 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mo Alie-Cox banked 4.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 263 yd, 1 INT · 8 car, 26 yd, 2 TD |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | 0.0 | 81% | 95% | 27% | 31% | 1 car, -5 yd · 8/10, 115 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.4 | −6.0 | 89% | 82% | 21% | 0% | 21 car, 70 yd, 1 TD · 3/6, 14 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −1.8 | 70% | 58% | 8% | 0% | 17 car, 76 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +4.0 | 42% | 21% | 10% | 7% | 3/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +1.2 | 86% | 88% | 17% | 11% | 5/5, 43 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +0.7 | 81% | 79% | 14% | 5% | 3/5, 54 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −7.2 | 94% | 100% | 24% | 27% | 6/9, 39 yd |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −5.6 | 78% | 84% | 19% | 30% | 4/7, 39 yd |
| Philip RiversQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −5.6 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 17/30, 147 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −3.1 | 61% | 82% | 17% | 22% | 2/5, 34 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −2.6 | 86% | 91% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.4 | 19% | 12% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 2.1 | −0.5 | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 21 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.3 | −0.1 | 19% | 28% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −9.5 | 91% | 94% | 17% | 46% | 0/5, 0 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 25% | 14% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 17% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Riley LeonardQB | -2.0 | −2.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-G.Pratt at IND -6. Touchback.
Q2 0:21 · Jaguars · 2nd & 3 at IND 16 · gained nothing · -3.99 EP · −19.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 83 yards from the IND 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars0
Colts3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars0Colts9Jaguars0Colts10Jaguars6Colts10Jaguars7Colts10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars13Colts10Jaguars14Colts10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jaguars14Colts16Jaguars14Colts17Jaguars17Colts17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Jaguars20Colts17How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Jaguars23Colts17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/37 | 263 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 2 | −0.6 |
| DeeJay Dallas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 8 | 10 | 115 | 0 | 27% | +4.8 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foye Oluokun | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montaric Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/30 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −11.5 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_JAX_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 40 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 21 |
| 10.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.4 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| 14% |
| +4.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 24% | −4.7 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +0.8 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Andrew Wingard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DaVon Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome II | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17% | +4.2 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −4.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 10% | +2.1 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 21% | −2.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17% | −4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zaire Franklin | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sauce Gardner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laiatu Latu | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samson Ebukam | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
