For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 27, Rams 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 0:43, 4th and 4, on Zane Gonzalez — 19.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:43 · 4th and 4
Zane Gonzalez
Rams
(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 0:43, Rams +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavier WattsFalconsQ4 9:13(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
15.9pts
Zane GonzalezFalconsQ4 0:25(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
17.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.18 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Rams152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.6 for FalconsExpected points −9.53 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:43LA +20% win prob(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:25ATL +17% win prob(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 9:13LA +16% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
4th · 2:42ATL +16% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) [0-B.Young].
2nd · 8:42LA +16% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:33ATL +14% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard to ATL 11 for 22 yards (3-J.Bates).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 51-yard field goal with 0:25 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:52Puka Nacua·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+724–24
4th0:25Zane Gonzalez·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryFalcons
Rams3–4Falcons
363Total yards345
6.0Yards per play6.5
43%Success rate43%
38%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays5
15First downs14
3Sacks taken0
4Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Falcons: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.25Falcons: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Rams: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Falcons’s 53 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Falcons 3.
NoteRams outgained Falcons 363-345 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −21.2 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −14.1 pts in week 2.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 27.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 31.9% in week 2.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 17 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 35.0%, is past their previous high of 28.2% in week 6 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 16.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +17.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Falcons12.2%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -21.2 pts, 14.8 points below their season mean of -6.3 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Zane Gonzalez+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:25 · Falcons · 4th & 8 at LA 33 · gained nothing · +1.05 EP · +18.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 93 yards from the ATL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3178%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.3236%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.4144%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14-0.197%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1867%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0357%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.09100%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 30
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams0Falcons6
Rams0Falcons7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Rams 2
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Falcons 11
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 16
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Rams 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Rams0Falcons13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 19
Rams0Falcons14
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Falcons 38
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 4
Intercepted1 play
Rams0Falcons20
Rams0Falcons21
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 46
3rd quarter36 plays
Rams3Falcons21
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Falcons 12
Rams3Falcons24
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Rams 35
Rams9Falcons24
Rams10Falcons24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Falcons 27
Rams16Falcons24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Rams 17
Rams17Falcons24
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Falcons 43
Intercepted9 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Falcons 27
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Rams 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.8 seconds
Rams23Falcons24
Rams24Falcons24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Falcons 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams24Falcons27
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Rams 33
The period ended8 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
