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2025 Week 17 · Mon, Dec 29, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

24

Atlanta FalconsWinner

27

LA -7.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 0:43, LA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑LA ↓
Q3 · 0:43LA 16 — ATL 24ATL ball · 4th & 4ATL 91%

(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:43LA +20% win prob(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:25ATL +17% win prob(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  3. Q4 · 9:13LA +16% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
  4. Q4 · 2:42ATL +16% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) [0-B.Young].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:16ATL Touchdown

    (6:16) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Young]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — ATL 7
  2. Q2 · 8:42ATL Touchdown

    (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — ATL 14
  3. Q2 · 1:41ATL Touchdown

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — ATL 21
  4. Q3 · 11:12LA Field goal

    (11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — ATL 21
  5. Q3 · 7:51ATL Field goal

    (7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — ATL 24
  6. Q3 · 5:06LA Touchdown

    (5:06) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 18-T.Ferguson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 10 — ATL 24
  7. Q3 · 0:43LA Touchdown

    (:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 17 — ATL 24
  8. Q4 · 2:52LA Touchdown

    (2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 24 — ATL 24
  9. Q4 · 0:25ATL Field goal

    (:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: LA 24 — ATL 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsFalcons
Offensive plays6153
Total yards363 (edge)345
Yards per play6.06.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.100.12 (edge)
Success rate43%43% (edge)
Dropback rate67%38%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.180.04 (edge)
Third downs5/135/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)14
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Rams outgained Falcons 363–345 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

22/38, 269 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-2.7 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

13/20, 126 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

22 att, 195 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Xavier SmithWR

4/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Terrance FergusonTE

2/4 for 54 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 27531:42Punt
2LALA 6491:32Punt
3ATLATL 3512705:35Touchdown +7
4LALA 3512475:11Turnover on downs
5ATLATL 1311406:06Punt
6LALA 12371:24Defensive touchdown
7LALA 258394:19Punt
8ATLATL 1452:23Punt
9LALA 47100:07Interception
10ATLATL 72930:13Touchdown +7
11LALA 265111:28End of half
12LALA 459383:52Field goal +3
13ATLATL 326363:22Field goal +3
14LALA 358652:47Touchdown +7
15ATLATL 268404:28Field goal
16ATLATL 266171:55Punt
17LALA 208484:32Interception
18ATLATL 42491:36Punt
19LALA 119994:42Touchdown +7
20ATLATL 3510322:25Field goal +3
21LALA 35500:21Turnover on downs

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 99 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford22/38269233-2.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams13927.10-2.3
Blake Corum6183.00-1.5
Ronnie Rivers155.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Xavier Smith4667017%5.6
Terrance Ferguson2454111%-1.5
Colby Parkinson6753019%3.0
Puka Nacua51047128%1.7
Kyren Williams333808%2.9
Konata Mumpfield2510014%-9.0
Tutu Atwell01003%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kam Curl630.000
Omar Speights350.000
Byron Young260.000
Kobie Turner320.000
Kamren Kinchens230.000
Jared Verse230.000
Nate Landman140.000
Jaylen McCollough120.000
Troy Reeder110.000
Emmanuel Forbes110.001

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins13/201261004.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson221958.914.9
Tyler Allgeier10232.30-3.4
Kirk Cousins111.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Sills3437020%0.6
Darnell Mooney2335015%4.0
Bijan Robinson5834140%1.5
Kyle Pitts2316015%-0.5
Drake London124010%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Divine Deablo730.000
Jessie Bates430.011
A.J. Terrell610.002
Xavier Watts410.023
LaCale London130.000
Kaden Elliss120.001
Leonard Floyd111.000
Khalid Kareem110.000
David Onyemata110.000
Ruke Orhorhoro111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -7.5
Closing total
48.5
LA moneyline
-380
ATL moneyline
+300

Rams closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
LA 11 days · ATL 8 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Raheem Morris