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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q1 10:46, 1st and 2, on Austin Hooper — 4.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 42–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:46, Patriots +4.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:46 · 1st and 2
Austin Hooper
Patriots
(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +1.12 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.49 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Austin Hooper's 2-yard touchdown catch with 10:46 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Austin Hooper2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake MayeLead never changed again+77–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.12 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 6, Jets 4.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −11.2 pts, is past their previous low of −4.6 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 14.3%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 8 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate, 40.8%, is past their previous low of 44.4% in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-11.2 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−2.28× that swing) · 60 snaps
Jets-19.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.4 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 86%
Tendencies room →Patriots40.8%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 49 early downs
Jets48.8%right on their number · −6.0 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots25.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Jets20.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%inside their normal wobble · +23.7 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets50.0%right on their number · +6.0 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +11.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets14.3%leaned — sat back · −15.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 32%
Tendencies room →Patriots14.3%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets10.7%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.2 pts, 13.2 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
19/21, 256 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
29.2 expected points added · +29.3% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
19/33, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.2 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
5/5 for 55 yds, 1 TD
20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Drake Maye banked 14.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 32.4 | +14.5 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 19/21, 256 yd, 5 TD · 3 car, 22 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 27.2 | +11.2 | 48% | 71% | 20% | 14% | 8 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 22.1 | +9.8 | 52% | 68% | 24% | 28% | 6/6, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 20.9 | +9.3 | 48% | 34% | 9% | 0% | 14 car, 111 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 18 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +6.6 | 65% | 82% | 12% | 9% | 3/3, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +7.8 | 62% | 68% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +3.2 | 41% | 36% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 8.2 | −8.2 | 52% | 39% | 0% | — | 19 car, 82 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −0.1 | 69% | 80% | 16% | 10% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/5, 30 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.5 | 76% | 71% | 9% | 14% | 3/3, 41 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −6.7 | 81% | 83% | 28% | 77% | 3/9, 22 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −2.6 | 85% | 86% | 20% | 30% | 3/5, 20 yd |
| Brady CookQB · Starter QB | 4.2 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 152 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | 0.0 | 26% | 40% | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 3.1 | −4.5 | 18% | 17% | 0% | — | 6 car, 31 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 3.0 | −0.3 | 13% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.9 | 14% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 16% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.2 | 35% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 16% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.2 | 61% | 49% | 9% | 3% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB | 1.1 | 0.0 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 30 yd · 2 car, -1 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.5 | −1.6 | 12% | 7% | 0% | — | 4 car, 5 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB | 0.5 | −2.3 | 21% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NYJ 42 for 30 yards (33-J.Clark) [72-M.Clemons].
Q1 7:20 · Patriots · 2nd & 8 at NE 28 · gained 30 · +2.67 EP · +6.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 91 yards from the NE 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Jets0Patriots7Jets0Patriots13Jets0Patriots14Jets0Patriots20Jets0Patriots21Jets0Patriots21Jets3Patriots27Jets3Patriots28Jets3Patriots34Jets3Patriots35Jets3Patriots41Jets3Patriots42Jets3Patriots42Jets9Patriots42Jets10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/21 | 256 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +29.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 24% | +10.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dell Pettus | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Schooler |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 19/33 | 152 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −15.2 |
| Austin McNamara | 1/1 | 3 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_NE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 52 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Drake Maye | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | +3.7 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 20% |
| +4.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 | 12% | +5.9 |
| Efton Chism III | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 8% | +4.7 |
| Kyle Williams | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 20% | +0.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 8% | +1.3 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Taylor III | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Battle | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Brady Cook | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +2.4 |
| Isaiah Williams | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16% | −2.2 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 28% | −7.6 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +2.3 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −2.4 |
| Malachi Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | +2.9 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −3.9 |
| Khalil Herbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwan'tez Stiggers | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Page | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Watts | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
