2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

New York Jets

NE -12.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓29°FPatriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 32.

New England Patriots 42–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:46, NYJ +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:46NE 6 — NYJ 0NE ball · 1st & 2NE 90%

(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:46NYJ +5% win prob(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:30NYJ +4% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to NYJ 40 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons; 27-M.Moore).
Q1 · 9:57NYJ +3% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NYJ 37 for 6 yards (7-C.Davis).
Q1 · 10:37NYJ +3% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left guard to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (33-A.Jennings).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:46NE Touchdown
(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — NYJ 0
Q1 · 5:09NE Touchdown
(5:09) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 15:00NE Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 38-R.Stevenson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 9:59NYJ Field goal
(9:59) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: NE 21 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 3:03NE Touchdown
(3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 28 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 0:37NE Touchdown
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 35 — NYJ 3
Q3 · 8:21NE Touchdown
(8:21) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 42 — NYJ 3
Q4 · 15:00NYJ Touchdown
(15:00) 20-B.Hall up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 42 — NYJ 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jets
Offensive plays	60	63
Total yards	441 (edge)	307
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.49 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	57% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	47%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	1.12 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

19/21, 256 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

29.2 expected points added · +29.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Brady CookQB

19/33, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.2 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

14 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

19 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Stefon DiggsWR

6/6 for 101 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

5/5 for 55 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 39	9	61	4:18	Touchdown +7
2	NYJ	NYJ 29	5	8	1:29	Punt
3	NE	NE 15	8	67	4:07	Touchdown +7
4	NYJ	NYJ 36	4	5	1:31	Interception
5	NE	NE 34	8	71	3:40	Touchdown +7
6	NYJ	NYJ 30	10	49	4:59	Field goal +3
7	NE	NE 26	13	69	6:55	Touchdown +7
8	NYJ	NYJ 35	5	6	1:13	Punt
9	NE	NE 9	11	76	1:17	Touchdown +7
10	NYJ	NYJ 35	4	9	0:31	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 35	9	12	3:14	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NYJ 47	7	47	3:30	Touchdown +7
13	NYJ	NYJ 28	7	33	2:45	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 34	7	43	3:43	Missed field goal
15	NYJ	NYJ 31	5	69	1:57	Touchdown +7
16	NE	NE 27	5	3	2:01	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 22	15	75	8:51	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 9	4	4	1:33	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 42	10	41	1:35	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 17	2	0	0:51	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	19/21	256	5	0	1	29.2
Joshua Dobbs	3/4	30	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	19	82	4.3	0	-1.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	47	5.9	1	1.0
Drake Maye	3	22	7.3	0	3.7
D'Ernest Johnson	4	5	1.3	0	-1.7
Joshua Dobbs	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	6	101	1	24%	10.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	5	5	55	1	20%	4.9
Hunter Henry	3	3	49	1	12%	5.9
Efton Chism III	2	2	40	1	8%	4.7
Kyle Williams	3	5	20	0	20%	0.7
Austin Hooper	2	2	11	1	8%	1.3
DeMario Douglas	1	2	10	0	8%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Dell Pettus	4	2	1.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	4	2	0.0	0
Brenden Schooler	3	2	0.0	0
Jack Gibbens	3	2	0.0	0
Leonard Taylor III	1	3	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Gonzalez	4	0	0.0	0
Chad Muma	1	3	0.0	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	1	2	0.0	1
Miles Battle	3	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brady Cook	19/33	152	0	1	1	-15.2
Austin McNamara	1/1	3	0	0	0	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	14	111	7.9	1	4.1
Kene Nwangwu	6	31	5.2	0	0.3
Isaiah Davis	3	11	3.7	0	-3.6
Isaiah Williams	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0
Khalil Herbert	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5
Brady Cook	2	1	0.5	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
John Metchie III	3	3	41	9%	2.4
Isaiah Williams	4	5	30	16%	-2.2
Adonai Mitchell	3	9	22	28%	-7.6
Breece Hall	2	3	18	9%	-0.3
Stone Smartt	2	3	18	9%	2.3
Isaiah Davis	1	1	9	3%	-0.9
Arian Smith	1	1	5	3%	0.1
Jelani Woods	1	1	4	3%	0.1
Tyler Johnson	1	1	3	3%	-2.4
Malachi Moore	1	1	3	3%	2.9
Jeremy Ruckert	1	3	2	9%	-3.9
Khalil Herbert	0	1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Qwan'tez Stiggers	6	4	0
Malachi Moore	4	3	1
Jamien Sherwood	3	4	0
Quincy Williams	5	1	0
Harrison Phillips	2	3	0
Jowon Briggs	3	2	0
Payton Page	4	0	0
Jordan Clark	3	0	0
Ja'Sir Taylor	3	0	0
Eric Watts	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -12.5
Closing total: 42.5
NE moneyline: -950
NYJ moneyline: +625

Patriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 52 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 29°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Aaron Glenn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.