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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −4.9 for JetsExpected points −0.78 for JetsThe model had Jets 30 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:46NYJ +5% win prob(10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:30NYJ +4% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to NYJ 40 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons; 27-M.Moore).
1st · 9:57NYJ +3% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NYJ 37 for 6 yards (7-C.Davis).
1st · 10:37NYJ +3% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left guard to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (33-A.Jennings).
1st · 8:39NYJ +2% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams to NE 26 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 21-B.Stephens).
1st · 12:54NE +2% win prob(12:54) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 24 yards (21-B.Stephens).
1st · 7:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Hooper's 2-yard touchdown catch with 10:46 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.12 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.49Patriots: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+1.12Patriots: +1.12 expected points added per play
−0.35Jets: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Patriots: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 6, Jets 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, −11.2 pts, is past their previous low of −4.6 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 4.2-swing turn from week 16.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
NE's early-down pass rate, 40.8%, is past their previous low of 44.4% in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 16.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets10.7%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.2 pts, 13.2 points below their season mean of 2.0 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
77Ben BrownC · Every snap100%66 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Full-time88%58 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Full-time88%58 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Full-time88%58 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Full-time85%56 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
86Efton Chism IIIWR · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Rotational48%32 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational41%27 snaps
74Thayer Munford Jr.T · Rotational36%24 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Rotational33%22 snaps
11Joshua DobbsQB · Situational21%14 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Situational14%9 snaps
82CJ DippreTE · Situational12%8 snaps
70Caedan WallaceG · Situational12%8 snaps
61Brenden JaimesG · Situational12%8 snaps
34D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational12%8 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jared WilsonGRobert SpillaneILBKhyiris TongaNTHarold Landry IIIOLBTommy DeVitoQBMarcus BryantTKayshon BoutteWR
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
70Armand MembouT · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%62 snaps
66Joe TippmannG · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Olumuyiwa FashanuT · Every snap100%62 snaps
4Brady CookQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
15Adonai MitchellWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
3John Metchie IIIWR · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
18Isaiah WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation69%43 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Heavy rotation66%41 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
86Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
65Xavier Newman-JohnsonG · Rotational34%21 snaps
84Stone SmarttTE · Rotational26%16 snaps
31Khalil HerbertRB · Situational21%13 snaps
34Kene NwangwuRB · Situational18%11 snaps
82Arian SmithWR · Situational16%10 snaps
16Tyler JohnsonWR · Situational16%10 snaps
32Isaiah DavisRB · Situational13%8 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational10%6 snaps
61Max MitchellT · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mazi SmithDTChris Smith IIFSMarquis HayesGTyrod TaylorQBMason TaylorTEQuentin SkinnerWR
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye pass+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NYJ 42 for 30 yards (33-J.Clark) [72-M.Clemons].
Q1 7:20 · Patriots · 2nd & 8 at NE 28 · gained 30 · +2.67 EP · +6.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 91 yards from the NE 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
49%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1767%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.8554%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.0643%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3113%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0220%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+2.0080%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Patriots6Jets0
Patriots7Jets0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Jets 37
Patriots13Jets0
Patriots14Jets0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Jets 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 41
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Jets 20
2nd quarter54 plays
Patriots20Jets0
Patriots21Jets0
Touchdown2 plays
Patriots21Jets3
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Patriots 18
Patriots27Jets3
Patriots28Jets3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 41
Patriots34Jets3
Patriots35Jets3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Jets 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 44
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Patriots 46
Patriots41Jets3
Patriots42Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 10
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Patriots 43
No good7 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Jets 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 39
4th quarter40 plays
Patriots42Jets9
Patriots42Jets10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 30
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Patriots 3
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 13
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Patriots 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
