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2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Nissan Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

34

Tennessee Titans

26

NO -1.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓

New Orleans Saints 34–26. Biggest swing: Q2 4:02, NO +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑NO ↓
Q2 · 4:02NO 9 — TEN 13TEN ball · 1st & 20TEN 75%

(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 4:02NO +22% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 7:59TEN +21% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
  3. Q2 · 13:08TEN +19% win prob(13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 1:05TEN +18% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:15TEN Field goal

    (9:15) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — TEN 3
  2. Q1 · 4:35TEN Field goal

    (4:35) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — TEN 6
  3. Q2 · 13:08TEN Touchdown

    (13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — TEN 13
  4. Q2 · 5:58NO Field goal

    (5:58) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NO 3 — TEN 13
  5. Q2 · 4:02NO Touchdown

    (4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 10 — TEN 13
  6. Q2 · 0:17TEN Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 10 — TEN 20
  7. Q3 · 10:39NO Touchdown

    (10:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 17 — TEN 20
  8. Q3 · 7:23TEN Field goal

    (7:23) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: NO 17 — TEN 23
  9. Q3 · 1:56NO Field goal

    (1:56) 39-C.Smyth 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NO 20 — TEN 23
  10. Q4 · 12:55TEN Field goal

    (12:55) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: NO 20 — TEN 26
  11. Q4 · 6:26NO Touchdown

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 81-K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 27 — TEN 26
  12. Q4 · 3:54NO Touchdown

    (3:54) 30-A.Estime left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 34 — TEN 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsTitans
Offensive plays5172
Total yards424 (edge)336
Yards per play8.3 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.25 (edge)-0.18
Success rate45% (edge)33%
Dropback rate61%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.36 (edge)-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.17
Third downs5/11 (edge)5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1717
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers11

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

22/27, 333 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +19.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

21/40, 251 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Audric EstiméRB

14 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

18 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/11 for 119 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

4/4 for 95 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 357162:52Punt
2NONO 204-21:24Punt
3TENNO 35431:34Field goal +3
4NONO 356401:34Missed field goal
5TENTEN 337473:05Field goal +3
6NONO 20562:25Punt
7TENTEN 368644:09Touchdown +7
8NONO 1813497:04Field goal +3
9TENTEN 244192:02Defensive touchdown
10TENTEN 2011353:38Touchdown +7
11NONO 20200:13End of half
12NONO 2611744:26Touchdown +7
13TENTEN 357553:14Field goal +3
14NONO 349415:29Field goal +3
15TENTEN 3511354:01Field goal +3
16NONO 274751:44Fumble
17TENTEN 206162:21Punt
18NONO 205802:23Touchdown +7
19TENTEN 355-71:28Punt
20NONO 365641:10Touchdown +7
21TENTEN 359271:40Turnover on downs
22NONO 384-30:27Punt
23TENTEN 319261:37End of game

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Shough22/2733320218.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Audric Estimé14946.715.6
Tyler Shough461.50-0.9
Evan Hull231.50-0.6
Taysom Hill300.00-2.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave811119141%9.5
Juwan Johnson4495015%6.9
Dante Pettis3453015%-3.4
Kevin Austin Jr.4552119%3.0
Moliki Matavao221007%0.2
Audric Estimé11404%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alontae Taylor720.004
Kool-Aid McKinstry420.002
Danny Stutsman330.000
Demario Davis060.500
Cameron Jordan231.000
Pete Werner320.000
Chase Young311.500
Quincy Riley310.000
Jonah Williams211.000
Nathan Shepherd210.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cam Ward21/40251204-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard18854.70-0.4
Cam Ward2105.00-0.0
Chimere Dike177.000.3
Kalel Mullings144.000.6
Tyjae Spears620.30-4.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chimere Dike4555014%0.5
Chig Okonkwo3755120%3.6
Van Jefferson334609%3.8
Elic Ayomanor4737120%2.6
Mason Kinsey113403%2.2
Tony Pollard221006%0.5
David Martin-Robinson11903%0.8
James Proche155014%-2.0
Gunnar Helm12106%-0.7
Tyjae Spears12-106%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cedric Gray930.000
Jeffery Simmons431.000
Darrell Baker Jr.410.000
Kendell Brooks410.000
Kemon Hall400.000
T'Vondre Sweat130.000
Cody Barton120.000
Jaylen Harrell210.500
David Martin-Robinson110.000
Arden Key110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -1.5
Closing total
39.5
NO moneyline
-120
TEN moneyline
+100

Saints closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 60 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
NO 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Kellen Moore vs Brian Callahan