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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 34 at Tennessee Titans 26. Final.
Saints -1.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
New Orleans Saints 34, Titans 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:02, 1st and 20, on Cam Ward — 22.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:02 · 1st and 20
Cam Ward
Saints
(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Saints closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 8.
New Orleans Saints 34–26. Biggest swing: Q2 4:02, Saints +22.2% win probability on one snap.
22.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chig OkonkwoTitansQ2 13:08(13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.5pts
Chris OlaveSaintsQ4 7:59(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
21.3pts
What separated them
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Saints166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.2 for TitansExpected points −8.80 for TitansThe model had Titans 10 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:02NO +22% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:59TEN +21% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
2nd · 13:08TEN +19% win prob(13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:05TEN +18% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.
4th · 11:22NO +16% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 11-D.Pettis to TEN 3 for 32 yards (40-K.Hall). FUMBLES (40-K.Hall), RECOVERED by TEN-35-K.Elam at TEN -9. Touchback.
4th · 6:26TEN +14% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 81-K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kevin Austin Jr.'s 10-yard touchdown catch with 6:26 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:15Joey Slye·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st4:35Joey Slye·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–6
Saints ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Saints: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Saints: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Saints: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.17Titans: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 51 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Titans’s 72 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Titans 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Titans16.1%
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 10.2 points above their season mean of 18.8% and 1.5 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Shough pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
Q4 7:59 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 32 · gained 60 · +3.74 EP · +19.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 80 yards from the TEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2872%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3765%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0456%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3950%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3633%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4840%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Saints 49
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 25
Saints0Titans3
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 32
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Titans 25
Saints0Titans6
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Saints 20
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 45
2nd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Saints0Titans12
Saints0Titans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Saints 43
Saints3Titans13
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Titans 33
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Saints9Titans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Saints 46
Saints10Titans13
Saints10Titans19
Saints10Titans20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Saints 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Saints16Titans20
Saints17Titans20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Titans 19
Saints17Titans23
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Saints 6
Saints20Titans23
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Titans 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 49
4th quarter59 plays
Saints20Titans26
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Saints 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Titans 35
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints26Titans26
Saints27Titans26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Titans 8
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Saints33Titans26
Saints34Titans26
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Titans 32
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Saints 37
Punt5 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Saints 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
