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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 34 at Las Vegas Raiders 10. Final.
Giants -3 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
New York Giants 34, Raiders 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:50, 2nd and 7, on Bobby Okereke — 20.7 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:50 · 2nd and 7
Bobby Okereke
Giants
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Dome
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
New York Giants 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:50, Giants +20.7% win probability on one snap.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaxson DartRaidersQ1 12:10(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 41 for -14 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
9.1pts
Devin SingletaryGiantsQ1 0:49(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to LV 1 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
7.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 13 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Giants151 of 157 plays carry both curves
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Swing −20.7 for RaidersExpected points −8.31 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 16 points higher than the market did.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:50NYG +21% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
1st · 12:10NYG +9% win prob(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 41 for -14 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
1st · 0:49LV +8% win prob(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to LV 1 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
3rd · 0:31LV +7% win prob8-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NYG 5. 2-D.Banks for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 12:36LV +7% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 17-W.Robinson ran ob at LV 45 for 17 yards (41-G.Vance).
1st · 4:11LV +7% win prob(4:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 1-T.Tucker to NYG 15 for 26 yards (43-R.Layne).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Singletary's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:01 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:01Devin Singletary·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd9:46Daniel Carlson·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+37–3
Giants ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Giants: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.21Raiders: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Giants: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.24Raiders: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Raiders’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Raiders 2.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −25.9 pts in week 16 against +4.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 16 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points.
LV's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.7 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 25.7% in week 16 against 53.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 33.3% and 1.3 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Q1 2:50 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at NYG 12 · gained nothing · -8.31 EP · −19.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
574
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2662%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2570%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2450%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0520%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Raiders 45
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 25
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Giants 12
Giants6Raiders0
Giants7Raiders0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 1
2nd quarter44 plays
Giants7Raiders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Giants 22
Giants13Raiders3
Giants14Raiders3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Raiders 12
Punt6 plays
Giants17Raiders3
Field goal16 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Raiders 9
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 39
Giants20Raiders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Raiders 5
Giants20Raiders9
Giants20Raiders10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Giants 3
Giants26Raiders10
Giants27Raiders10
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter34 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Giants 41
Giants33Raiders10
Giants34Raiders10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Raiders 2
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Giants 37
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
