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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q1 2:50, 2nd and 7, on Bobby Okereke — 20.7 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:50, Giants +20.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:50 · 2nd and 7
Bobby Okereke
Giants
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 13 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Devin Singletary's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:01 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryRaiders
Giants ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Raiders’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Raiders 2.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −25.9 pts in week 16 against +4.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 16 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
LV's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.7 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 25.7% in week 16 against 53.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Giants4.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.3 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 60 snaps
Raiders-7.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 92%
Tendencies room →Giants53.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 47 early downs
Raiders52.8%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Giants14.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders22.9%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Giants33.3%leaned — took the kick · −19.9 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±19.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders75.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 63%
Tendencies room →Giants48.6%leaned — sent pressure · +15.2 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders22.9%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 37%
Tendencies room →Giants25.7%leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders20.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 33.3% and 1.3 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
22/30, 207 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.0 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · LV
20/28, 176 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
11/14 for 113 yds, 0 TD
48% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxson Dart banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 25.1 | +5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 207 yd · 9 car, 48 yd, 2 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.3 | +0.3 | 75% | 86% | 48% | 54% | 11/14, 113 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | +4.0 | 93% | 94% | 36% | 18% | 9/10, 89 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 17.0 | +3.3 | 30% | 31% | 14% | 0% | 8 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 25 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | +0.8 | 100% | 100% | 21% | 9% | 2 car, 0 yd · 5/6, 49 yd |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.3 | −2.4 | 81% | 77% | 7% | 5% | 16 car, 60 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +2.8 | 56% | 71% | 11% | 10% | 2/3, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −5.3 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 20/28, 176 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 6.7 | −7.0 | 66% | 69% | 7% | 11% | 14 car, 62 yd · 1/2, -5 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | 0.0 | 88% | 97% | 10% | 28% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| Shedrick JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.2 | 14% | 20% | 11% | 26% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −4.4 | 78% | 71% | 14% | 32% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −2.4 | 97% | 97% | 10% | 8% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.9 | 16% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.3 | 81% | 91% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB | 0.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | 19% | 23% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Q1 2:50 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at NYG 12 · gained nothing · -8.31 EP · −19.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Giants6
Raiders0Giants7Raiders0Giants7Raiders3Giants13Raiders3Giants14Raiders3Giants17Raiders3Giants20Raiders3Giants20Raiders9Giants20Raiders10Giants26Raiders10Giants27Raiders10Giants33Raiders10Giants34Raiders10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 22/30 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jaxson Dart | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 2 | +8.5 |
| Devin Singletary |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 11 | 14 | 113 | 0 | 48% | +4.3 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/28 | 176 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −4.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2/2 | 16 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_NYG_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 8 |
| 45 |
| 5.6 |
| 1 |
| +2.0 |
| 10% |
| +1.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +0.7 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Darius Muasau | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Layne | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdul Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Alexander | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 9 | 10 | 89 | 0 | 36% | −0.3 |
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 21% | +0.8 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14% | +1.5 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Eichenberg | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greedy Vance | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristin McCollum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
