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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 13 at Buffalo Bills 12. Final.
Bills -3 upsetU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Philadelphia Eagles 13, Bills 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:05, on Khalil Shakir — 29.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05
Khalil Shakir
Eagles
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Eagles +29.5% win probability on one snap.
29.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenEaglesQ1 4:13(4:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (50-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (50-J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-30-J.Campbell at BUF 45.
21.4pts
Josh AllenBillsQ4 0:08(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
28.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Eagles156 of 168 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:05Eagles 13 — Bills 12BUF ballPHI 60%
Eagles 60%Bills 40%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −29.5 for BillsExpected points −0.95 for BillsThe model had Bills 2 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:05PHI +29% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:08BUF +29% win prob(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:13PHI +21% win prob(4:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (50-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (50-J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-30-J.Campbell at BUF 45.
4th · 1:40BUF +15% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 18-B.Cooks to PHI 10 for 36 yards (39-M.Epps).
1st · 5:14BUF +12% win prob(5:14) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 18-B.Cooks to PHI 30 for 50 yards (33-C.DeJean) [58-J.Hunt].
4th · 1:51BUF +12% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-T.Shavers to BUF 33 for 4 yards. Lateral to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Epps).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:39 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
2nd5:07Jake Elliott·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Hughlett+310–0
2nd0:11Jake Elliott·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Hughlett+313–0
4th5:15Josh Allen·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by J.Carter+613–6
4th0:08Josh Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+613–12
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryBills
Eagles2–7Bills
191Total yards332
3.6Yards per play4.5
30%Success rate38%
23%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
10First downs19
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Eagles: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.26Bills: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Eagles: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 53 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bills’s 73 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Bills 3.
NoteBills outgained Eagles 332-191 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
BUF's blitz rate sent, 55.2%, is past their previous high of 40.9% in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 16.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteBUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 55.2%, 24.3 points above their season mean of 30.9% and 2.6 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%54 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Every snap100%54 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%54 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%54 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Every snap100%54 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time89%48 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time85%46 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time80%43 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time80%43 snaps
2Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational48%26 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational35%19 snaps
80Darius CooperWR · Rotational31%17 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational19%10 snaps
36Cameron LatuTE · Situational11%6 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational9%5 snaps
37Tank BigsbyRB · Situational9%5 snaps
33Cooper DeJeanCB · Situational2%1 snap
79Matt PryorT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Michael Carter IICBNakobe DeanILBJoshua UcheOLBSam HowellQBAJ DillonRBLane JohnsonT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Anderson reported+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:08 · Bills · 4th & goal at PHI 1 · gained 1 · +3.73 EP · +29.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 83 yards from the BUF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
521
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.1962%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0655%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.3125%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1040%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 36
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Eagles 49
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 30
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Eagles 23
Eagles6Bills0
Eagles7Bills0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Eagles 44
Eagles10Bills0
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Bills 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 33
Eagles13Bills0
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Bills 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 29
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 37
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Eagles 47
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Eagles 2
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 5
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 27
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 24
Eagles13Bills6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Eagles 2
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Eagles13Bills12
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Eagles 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3
Closing total
45.5
Eagles moneyline
+142
Bills moneyline
-170
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 25 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-east; 0.37 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Eagles 8 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Sean McDermott
4th · 0:23
PHI +12% win prob
(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to PHI 1 for 2 yards (8-A.Jackson).
4th · 0:33PHI +8% win prob(:33) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle to PHI 3 for 6 yards (90-J.Davis).
