2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · New Era Field

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -3 upsetU 45.5 ✓Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, PHI +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:05PHI 13 — BUF 12BUF ballPHI 60%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:05PHI +29% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 0:08BUF +29% win prob(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:13PHI +21% win prob(4:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (50-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (50-J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-30-J.Campbell at BUF 45.
Q4 · 1:40BUF +15% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 18-B.Cooks to PHI 10 for 36 yards (39-M.Epps).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:39PHI Touchdown
(:39) 79-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — BUF 0
Q2 · 5:07PHI Field goal
(5:07) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 10 — BUF 0
Q2 · 0:11PHI Field goal
(:11) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 13 — BUF 0
Q4 · 5:15BUF Touchdown
(5:15) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PHI 13 — BUF 6
Q4 · 0:08BUF Touchdown
(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PHI 13 — BUF 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Bills
Offensive plays	53	73
Total yards	191	332 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	30%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bills outgained Eagles 332–191 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/35, 262 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

13/27, 110 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

20 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

19 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Brandin CooksWR

4/6 for 101 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

5/7 for 68 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 28	5	8	1:15	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 10	9	26	5:07	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 13	6	17	2:42	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 26	4	52	1:53	Fumble
5	PHI	BUF 45	8	45	3:28	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 20	11	46	4:38	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 23	13	43	5:54	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 32	5	-2	2:14	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 29	10	61	2:41	Field goal +3
10	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 20	5	9	1:35	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 22	6	13	2:27	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 20	9	28	4:30	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 16	4	0	0:25	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 32	8	41	3:47	Turnover on downs
16	PHI	PHI 1	4	2	2:12	Punt
17	BUF	PHI 41	6	-5	2:16	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 20	4	4	1:46	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 46	12	54	5:51	Touchdown +6
20	PHI	PHI 30	5	-2	1:50	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 17	14	83	3:16	Touchdown +6
22	PHI	BUF 48	2	0	0:05	End of game

5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	13/27	110	1	0	1	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	19	68	3.6	-1.3
Tank Bigsby	2	7	3.5	-0.2
Jalen Hurts	3	5	1.7	1.6
Will Shipley	2	2	1.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	5	7	68	0	32%	4.5
DeVonta Smith	2	5	25	0	23%	0.0
Dallas Goedert	3	6	8	1	27%	-2.3
Darius Cooper	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.1
Grant Calcaterra	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.3
Tank Bigsby	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.2
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Epps	8	1	0.0	0
Cooper DeJean	5	4	0.0	0
Jihaad Campbell	4	3	0.0	0
Jalyx Hunt	4	3	2.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	3	3	1.0	0
Reed Blankenship	4	1	0.0	0
Zack Baun	5	0	0.0	0
Jordan Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	2	3	0.0	2
Quinyon Mitchell	3	1	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	23/35	262	0	0	5	-9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	20	74	3.7	0	-3.1
Josh Allen	7	27	3.9	2	4.0
Ty Johnson	5	15	3.0	0	-0.2
Ray Davis	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	4	6	101	18%	6.3
Tyrell Shavers	2	3	36	9%	5.1
Khalil Shakir	6	7	35	21%	-1.8
Ty Johnson	3	4	33	12%	-1.1
Dawson Knox	5	5	30	15%	1.2
Ray Davis	1	1	12	3%	0.7
Josh Palmer	1	2	12	6%	-0.3
James Cook	1	4	3	12%	-2.5
Gabe Davis	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Matt Milano	4	3	0.5	0
Cam Lewis	4	1	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	3	1	0.0	0
Greg Rousseau	1	2	0.5	0
Deone Walker	2	1	0.0	0
Christian Benford	3	0	0.0	2
Maxwell Hairston	3	0	0.0	0
Terrel Bernard	3	0	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	0	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 45.5
PHI moneyline: +142
BUF moneyline: -170

Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 25 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: PHI 8 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Sean McDermott