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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q4 0:05, on Khalil Shakir — 29.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Eagles +29.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05
Khalil Shakir
Eagles
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
29.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dallas Goedert's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:39 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dallas Goedert1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+77–05 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 53 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bills’s 73 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Bills 3.
Bills outgained Eagles 332-191 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's blitz rate sent, 55.2%, is past their previous high of 40.9% in week 1 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +2.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-7.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 53 snaps
Bills-14.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.8 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles45.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 40 early downs
Bills53.7%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Eagles20.7%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bills18.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles0.0%inside their normal wobble · −32.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bills66.7%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 59%
Tendencies room →Eagles27.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills55.2%off script — sent pressure · +24.3 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+2.58× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Eagles16.3%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills10.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
BUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 55.2%, 24.3 points above their season mean of 30.9% and 2.6 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
23/35, 262 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.4 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
13/27, 110 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-5.0 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brandin Cooks banked 3.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.2 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/35, 262 yd · 7 car, 27 yd, 2 TD |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +3.5 | 51% | 51% | 18% | 56% | 4/6, 101 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | −0.5 | 89% | 90% | 32% | 39% | 5/7, 68 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | −3.6 | 80% | 86% | 27% | 11% | 3/6, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −1.7 | 78% | 93% | 21% | 2% | 6/7, 35 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/27, 110 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 5 yd |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.7 | −10.5 | 51% | 37% | 12% | 14% | 20 car, 74 yd · 1/4, 3 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | −1.1 | 63% | 65% | 15% | 8% | 5/5, 30 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 7.8 | −2.6 | 38% | 47% | 12% | 0% | 5 car, 15 yd · 3/4, 33 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.8 | −5.7 | 80% | 79% | 0% | — | 19 car, 68 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.7 | 57% | 56% | 9% | 13% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −3.5 | 85% | 93% | 23% | 32% | 2/5, 25 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 2.6 | +0.8 | 13% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.2 | 50% | 56% | 6% | 9% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 1.9 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 31% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.3 | 35% | 34% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.2 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gabe DavisWR | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 48% | 62% | 5% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:08 · Bills · 4th & goal at PHI 1 · gained 1 · +3.73 EP · +29.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 83 yards from the BUF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Eagles6
Bills0Eagles7Bills0Eagles10Bills0Eagles13Bills0Eagles13Bills6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Eagles13Bills12How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13/27 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 32% | +4.5 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper DeJean | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/35 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_PHI_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 25 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| +1.6 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| +0.0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 27% | −2.3 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zack Baun | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 101 | 0 | 18% | +6.3 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +5.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 21% | −1.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 12% | −1.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 15% | +1.2 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| James Cook | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12% | −2.5 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
