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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q2 5:03, 1st and 10, on Jack Sawyer — 19.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:03 · 1st and 10
Jack Sawyer
Steelers
(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 87-S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (91-L.Lee) [56-A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. 33-J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards (74-T.Jenkins).
Cleveland Browns 13–6. Biggest swing: Q2 5:03, Steelers +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 14 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 87-S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (91-L.Lee) [56-A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. 33-J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards (74-T.Jenkins).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andre Szmyt's 50-yard field goal with 10:52 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Andre Szmyt50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.SunaharaLead never changed again+30–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 63 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Browns’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Browns 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate, 10.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
CLE's blitz rate sent, 10.0%, is past their previous low of 16.1% in week 3 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-10.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.8 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 63 snaps
Browns-0.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Steelers56.5%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 46 early downs
Browns54.1%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Steelers10.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Browns35.7%leaned — faked the run · +12.3 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Steelers25.0%right on their number · −7.6 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Browns0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.2 vs their 33.2%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers42.9%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Browns10.0%leaned — sat back · −19.1 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 41%
Tendencies room →Steelers14.3%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Browns12.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
CLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 19.1 points below their season mean of 29.1% and 1.8 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
17/23, 186 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-5.5 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
21/39, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-12.3 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Harold Fannin Jr. banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +7.3 | 23% | 25% | 9% | 15% | 2/2, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.4 | −0.5 | 94% | 89% | 30% | 44% | 5/7, 54 yd |
| Shedeur SandersQB · Starter QB | 9.4 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 186 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 20 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +2.8 | 70% | 76% | 14% | 19% | 3/5, 63 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −0.4 | 41% | 29% | 14% | 4% | 2 car, 9 yd · 5/5, 18 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/39, 168 yd · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 6.8 | −1.7 | 68% | 83% | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 26 yd · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 6.4 | +0.8 | 32% | 14% | 0% | — | 12 car, 64 yd |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −3.8 | 35% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 11 car, 27 yd · 3/3, 0 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −5.1 | 64% | 79% | 19% | 22% | 3/7, 25 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +3.9 | 58% | 50% | 4% | 15% | 1/1, 42 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −9.7 | 82% | 95% | 24% | 37% | 3/9, 21 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB · Committee Back | 4.1 | −2.5 | 42% | 39% | 9% | 7% | 8 car, 21 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.0 | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −3.0 | 86% | 95% | 14% | 22% | 2/5, 14 yd |
| Sal CannellaTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.7 | 35% | 39% | 17% | 10% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Brenden BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.4 | 48% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.2 | 23% | 29% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 38% | 21% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 1.0 | −0.1 | 23% | 25% | 0% | — | 2 car, 10 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 62% | 54% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 87-S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (91-L.Lee) [56-A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. 33-J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards (74-T.Jenkins).
Q2 5:03 · Browns · 1st & 10 at PIT 46 · gained nothing · -6.35 EP · −16.7% win probability
144 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 86 yards from the CLE 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Browns3Steelers0Browns9Steelers0Browns10Steelers3Browns10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Steelers6Browns10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Steelers6Browns13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/39 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14% | +2.3 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 19% | −5.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 17/23 | 186 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Sampson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_PIT_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 35.5; the game landed 19 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 24% | −5.4 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −0.4 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +3.6 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −3.5 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 27 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −4.7 |
| Raheim Sanders | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 30% | +0.1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 4% | +2.8 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Brenden Bates | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Sal Cannella | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17% | −8.2 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.1 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Graham | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Wright | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adin Huntington | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
