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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle27
BY 17final margin
PanthersCarolina10
Seattle Seahawks 27 at Carolina Panthers 10. Final.
Seahawks -6.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Seattle Seahawks 27, Panthers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 12:06, 1st and 10, on Chuba Hubbard — 12.8 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:06 · 1st and 10
Chuba Hubbard
Seahawks
(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence to CAR 21 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Seattle Seahawks 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:06, Seahawks +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam DarnoldPanthersQ2 5:33(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.Darnold), recovered by CAR-56-C.Rozeboom at SEA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
10.4pts
Mike JacksonPanthersQ3 12:12(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.
12.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.27 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.60 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Seahawks145 of 157 plays carry both curves
(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHD
Swing −12.8 for PanthersExpected points −5.54 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 20 points higher than the market did.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:06SEA +13% win prob(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence to CAR 21 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
3rd · 12:12SEA +12% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.
2nd · 5:33SEA +10% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.Darnold), recovered by CAR-56-C.Rozeboom at SEA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 11:41SEA +9% win prob(11:41) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on SEA-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 21 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
2nd · 0:26SEA +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Charbonnet's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:49 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:28Jason Myers·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–0
2nd3:50Ryan Fitzgerald·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+33–3
3rd8:49Zach Charbonnet·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–3
3rd5:39AJ Barner·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+717–3
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Seahawks: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.51Panthers: −0.51 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Seahawks: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.60Panthers: −0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Seahawks: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.37Panthers: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 65 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Panthers’s 49 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Panthers 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's blitz rate sent, 51.6%, is past their previous high of 32.5% in week 15 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 16.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 64.7% in week 16 against 43.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Panthers16.1%
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.6%, 23.3 points above their season mean of 28.3% and 2.7 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold to−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.Darnold), recovered by CAR-56-C.Rozeboom at SEA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 5:33 · Seahawks · 3rd & 5 at SEA 46 · lost 5 · -5.49 EP · −18.1% win probability
143 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 69 yards from the CAR 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
43%
Yards
427
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.5765%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1753%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1730%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1030%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4567%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 32
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Seahawks3Panthers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Panthers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 35
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 42
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 46
Seahawks3Panthers3
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 17
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Panthers 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 39 to midfield
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Panthers 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks9Panthers3
Seahawks10Panthers3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Panthers 40
Seahawks16Panthers3
Seahawks17Panthers3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 17
The period ended13 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Seahawks 28
4th quarter43 plays
Seahawks17Panthers9
Seahawks17Panthers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 10
Seahawks20Panthers10
Field goal17 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Panthers 7
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 34
Seahawks26Panthers10
Seahawks27Panthers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6.5
Closing total
42.5
Seahawks moneyline
-305
Panthers moneyline
+245
Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 37 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the east; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Dave Canales
(:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (94-A.Robinson; 56-C.Rozeboom). (Virtual measurement).
1st · 7:07CAR +7% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end to 50 for 25 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
3rd · 8:49CAR +7% win prob(8:49) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:54SEA +7% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at SEA 45. 20-J.Love to CAR 29 for 26 yards (4-T.McMillan).
