2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Carolina Panthers

SEA -6.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Seattle Seahawks 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:06, SEA +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:06SEA 3 — CAR 3CAR ball · 1st & 10SEA 64%

(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHD

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:06SEA +13% win prob(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence to CAR 21 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
Q3 · 12:12SEA +12% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 5:33SEA +10% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.Darnold), recovered by CAR-56-C.Rozeboom at SEA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 11:41SEA +9% win prob(11:41) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on SEA-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 21 yards, enforced at SEA 32.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:28SEA Field goal
(3:28) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — CAR 0
Q2 · 3:50CAR Field goal
(3:50) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — CAR 3
Q3 · 8:49SEA Touchdown
(8:49) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 10 — CAR 3
Q3 · 5:39SEA Touchdown
(5:39) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 17 — CAR 3
Q4 · 13:48CAR Touchdown
(13:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 17 — CAR 10
Q4 · 5:36SEA Field goal
(5:36) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 20 — CAR 10
Q4 · 2:35SEA Touchdown
(2:35) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 27 — CAR 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Panthers
Offensive plays	65	49
Total yards	289 (edge)	142
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	2.9
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.51
Success rate	42% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	48%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27 (edge)	-0.60
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

18/27, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.6 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

14/24, 54 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-21.1 expected points added · -7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

18 att, 110 yds, 2 TD

10.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

12 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

9/12 for 72 yds, 0 TD

46% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

AJ BarnerTE

3/3 for 43 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 35	6	12	1:52	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 18	7	30	2:28	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 20	4	5	2:13	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 30	9	35	5:04	Field goal +3
5	CAR	CAR 35	5	1	1:29	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 16	7	26	3:31	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 23	11	27	6:28	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 41	3	0	1:36	Fumble
9	CAR	SEA 26	4	9	1:33	Field goal +3
10	SEA	SEA 30	9	31	3:29	Turnover on downs
11	CAR	CAR 39	3	11	0:17	End of half
12	SEA	SEA 40	7	42	2:54	Interception
13	CAR	CAR 20	1	1	0:05	Defensive touchdown
14	SEA	CAR 21	7	21	3:16	Touchdown +7
15	CAR	CAR 34	4	6	1:04	Interception
16	SEA	CAR 29	5	29	2:09	Touchdown +7
17	CAR	CAR 31	15	69	6:51	Touchdown +7
18	SEA	SEA 33	15	50	8:08	Field goal +3
19	CAR	CAR 27	5	-2	1:53	Turnover on downs
20	SEA	CAR 25	6	25	1:09	Touchdown +7
21	CAR	CAR 13	5	3	1:57	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	CAR 13	1	0	0:34	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 69 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	18/27	147	1	1	3	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	18	110	6.1	2	10.7
Kenneth Walker III	15	51	3.4	0	-4.4
Sam Darnold	3	2	0.7	0	-5.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	12	72	0	46%	1.6
AJ Barner	3	3	43	1	12%	6.0
Zach Charbonnet	2	2	12	0	8%	0.1
Rashid Shaheed	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Kenneth Walker III	2	2	6	0	8%	-1.3
Cooper Kupp	1	3	6	0	12%	-0.1
Eric Saubert	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.0
Dareke Young	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julian Love	5	1	0.0	1	1
Ty Okada	5	1	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Lawrence	3	3	1.0	0	0
Ernest Jones	1	4	0.0	0	0
Devon Witherspoon	3	1	0.0	0	1
Nick Emmanwori	2	1	0.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	1	1	1.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	1	1	0.0	0	1
Jake Bobo	1	1	0.0	0	0
Rylie Mills	1	1	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	14/24	54	0	1	2	-21.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rico Dowdle	12	59	4.9	0	-0.3
Bryce Young	9	27	3.0	1	-2.0
Chuba Hubbard	4	12	3.0	0	-7.1
Mitchell Evans	1	1	1.0	0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Coker	2	2	16	10%	1.6
Jimmy Horn Jr.	2	2	9	10%	-0.2
Chuba Hubbard	3	3	6	14%	-2.0
Tommy Tremble	1	1	6	5%	0.3
Mitchell Evans	1	2	5	10%	-1.3
Tetairoa McMillan	1	4	5	19%	-11.4
Rico Dowdle	3	5	4	24%	-2.7
Xavier Legette	1	1	3	5%	0.2
Brycen Tremayne	0	1	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Jackson	7	3	0.0	1	2
Christian Rozeboom	4	6	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	5	2	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	3	3	0.0	0	0
Cam Jackson	1	4	0.0	0	0
Tre'von Moehrig	3	1	1.0	0	0
Bobby Brown III	1	3	0.0	0	1
Nic Scourton	1	3	1.0	0	0
Princely Umanmielen	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -6.5
Closing total: 42.5
SEA moneyline: -305
CAR moneyline: +245

Seahawks closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 37 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: SEA 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Dave Canales