2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami DolphinsWinner

TB -5.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, TB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:05TB 10 — MIA 20TB ball · 1st & 10MIA 79%

(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:05TB +13% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
Q2 · 1:46MIA +13% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:04TB +12% win prob(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-56-Q.Bell at MIA 41.
Q1 · 4:37MIA +12% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:31TB Touchdown
(5:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — MIA 0
Q1 · 4:37MIA Touchdown
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 8:23MIA Field goal
(8:23) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: TB 7 — MIA 10
Q2 · 1:46MIA Touchdown
(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — MIA 17
Q3 · 3:53TB Field goal
(3:53) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: TB 10 — MIA 17
Q4 · 14:19MIA Field goal
(14:19) 47-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: TB 10 — MIA 20
Q4 · 0:54TB Touchdown
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — MIA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Dolphins
Offensive plays	63	52
Total yards	380 (edge)	300
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	79%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Dolphins 380–300 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

33/44, 346 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

1.7 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Quinn EwersQB

14/22, 172 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.8 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

18 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Jaylen WrightRB

5 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Jalen McMillanWR

7/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris Godwin Jr.WR

7/8 for 108 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 35	5	4	2:06	Punt
2	TB	TB 32	15	68	7:27	Touchdown +7
3	MIA	MIA 35	5	70	0:58	Touchdown +7
4	TB	TB 17	8	29	5:30	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 13	10	76	5:41	Field goal +3
6	TB	TB 28	5	10	2:21	Interception
7	MIA	MIA 24	10	86	4:14	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 30	8	53	1:23	Missed field goal
9	MIA	MIA 45	3	-10	0:20	End of half
10	TB	TB 35	5	7	1:35	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 31	4	-7	1:30	Punt
12	TB	TB 35	13	50	8:06	Field goal +3
13	MIA	TB 45	9	37	4:34	Field goal +3
14	TB	TB 35	5	13	1:38	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 4	7	25	4:00	Punt
16	TB	TB 22	5	46	1:41	Interception
17	MIA	MIA 26	4	-1	1:36	Punt
18	TB	TB 32	7	28	1:25	Fumble
19	MIA	MIA 41	7	20	2:05	Punt
20	TB	TB 9	4	76	1:00	Touchdown +7
21	MIA	TB 47	3	0	0:50	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	33/44	346	2	2	3	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bucky Irving	9	19	2.1	-4.7
Baker Mayfield	3	16	5.3	2.4
Rachaad White	2	10	5.0	0.2
Sean Tucker	2	8	4.0	2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen McMillan	7	9	114	0	20%	6.8
Chris Godwin Jr.	7	8	108	1	18%	8.5
Cade Otton	4	4	33	0	9%	1.5
Mike Evans	3	7	31	1	16%	1.9
Emeka Egbuka	3	5	20	0	11%	-4.7
Tez Johnson	2	2	19	0	5%	1.0
Bucky Irving	5	6	14	0	14%	-4.5
Rachaad White	2	2	7	0	5%	-0.3
Sean Tucker	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antoine Winfield Jr.	2	5	0.0	0
SirVocea Dennis	3	3	0.0	0
Yaya Diaby	2	4	1.0	0
Jacob Parrish	2	3	0.0	0
Benjamin Morrison	2	2	0.0	1
Chris Braswell	3	1	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	1	0.0	0
Lavonte David	2	1	0.0	0
Vita Vea	1	2	0.0	0
Logan Hall	3	0	1.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Quinn Ewers	14/22	172	2	0	2	4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
De'Von Achane	18	83	4.6	-1.0
Jaylen Wright	5	56	11.2	3.4
Jaylen Waddle	1	7	7.0	0.4
Quinn Ewers	4	5	1.3	-1.0
Malik Washington	1	1	1.0	-0.6
Greg Dulcich	1	-7	-7.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Theo Wease Jr.	1	1	63	1	5%	6.2
Greg Dulcich	5	6	58	1	27%	5.3
De'Von Achane	3	3	29	0	14%	0.8
Julian Hill	1	2	16	0	9%	2.2
Cedrick Wilson Jr.	1	2	8	0	9%	-0.5
Malik Washington	1	3	4	0	14%	-2.9
Jaylen Waddle	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.9
Darren Waller	1	3	0	0	14%	-1.9
Quinn Ewers	1	1	-6	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jack Jones	8	2	0.0	0	1
Ashtyn Davis	5	2	0.0	1	2
Jason Marshall Jr.	3	3	0.0	1	2
Tyrel Dodson	4	1	1.0	0	0
Jordyn Brooks	2	3	0.0	0	1
Ifeatu Melifonwu	3	2	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	2	0.0	0	0
Willie Gay Jr.	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenneth Grant	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Goode	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
TB moneyline: -250
MIA moneyline: +205

Buccaneers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Mike McDaniel