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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 17
It turned at Q4 7:05, 1st and 10, on Ashtyn Davis — 13.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, Dolphins +13.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:05 · 1st and 10
Ashtyn Davis
Dolphins
(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 12 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Riley Patterson's 29-yard field goal with 8:23 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Riley Patterson29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+37–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryDolphins
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Dolphins 4.
Buccaneers outgained Dolphins 380-300 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TB's pass rate over expected, +9.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.3% in week 16 against 77.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers9.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.8 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 63 snaps
Dolphins-7.5 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 87%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers77.1%leaned — passed early · +22.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 48 early downs
Dolphins40.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.9 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 63%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers16.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Dolphins36.0%right on their number · +6.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +21.6 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.1 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 14% to 61%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers32.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Dolphins34.0%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers12.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Dolphins10.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.1%, 22.9 points above their season mean of 54.2% and 1.8 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
33/44, 346 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
1.7 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
14/22, 172 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.8 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Receiving · TB
7/8 for 108 yds, 1 TD
18% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Theo Wease Jr. banked 11.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 23.8 | +9.9 | 79% | 84% | 18% | 10% | 7/8, 108 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 18.4 | +3.8 | 52% | 56% | 20% | 35% | 7/9, 114 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 17.4 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 33/44, 346 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 16 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +2.0 | 36% | 48% | 27% | 12% | 1 car, -7 yd · 5/6, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Quinn EwersQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 5% | 0% | 14/22, 172 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 5 yd · 1/1, -6 yd |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.2 | +0.4 | 75% | 60% | 14% | 0% | 18 car, 83 yd · 3/3, 29 yd |
| Theo Wease Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +11.8 | 27% | 36% | 5% | 11% | 1/1, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | −1.6 | 75% | 82% | 16% | 34% | 3/7, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | −4.7 | 54% | 50% | 14% | 0% | 9 car, 19 yd · 5/6, 14 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +1.4 | 97% | 98% | 9% | 5% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 5.6 | +3.1 | 15% | 4% | 0% | — | 5 car, 56 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −3.0 | 58% | 54% | 11% | 17% | 3/5, 20 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.6 | 16% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 3.7 | −1.1 | 48% | 52% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.4 | 60% | 44% | 9% | 4% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.7 | 69% | 52% | 9% | 8% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.7 | 64% | 76% | 14% | 40% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/3, 4 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −3.3 | 38% | 48% | 14% | 21% | 1/3, 0 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.8 | −4.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −1.7 | 25% | 36% | 5% | 8% | 1 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:37 · Dolphins · 3rd & 8 at MIA 37 · gained 63 · +6.16 EP · +18.8% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers6
Dolphins0Buccaneers7Dolphins0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers7Dolphins6Buccaneers7Dolphins7Buccaneers7Dolphins10Buccaneers7Dolphins16Buccaneers7Dolphins17Buccaneers10Dolphins17Buccaneers10Dolphins20Buccaneers16Dolphins20Buccaneers17Dolphins20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 33/44 | 346 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Rachaad White |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen McMillan | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 20% | +6.8 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 8 | 108 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 14/22 | 172 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_17_TB_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 10 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| 18% |
| +8.5 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 16% | +1.9 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 11% | −4.7 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −4.5 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Sean Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haason Reddick | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Quinn Ewers | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Wease Jr. | 1 | 1 | 63 | 1 | 5% | +6.2 |
| Greg Dulcich | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 27% | +5.3 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −2.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −1.9 |
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jones | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jason Marshall Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Goode | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Grant | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
