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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 28, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay17
BY 3final margin
DolphinsMiami20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 at Miami Dolphins 20. Final.
Buccaneers -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 17
Miami Dolphins 20, Buccaneers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:05, 1st and 10, on Ashtyn Davis — 13.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:05 · 1st and 10
Ashtyn Davis
Dolphins
(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
U 44.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, Dolphins +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Greg DulcichDolphinsQ2 1:46(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.8pts
Baker MayfieldDolphinsQ4 4:04(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-56-Q.Bell at MIA 41.
12.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 12 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Buccaneers155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
Swing +13.3 for DolphinsExpected points +4.81 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 7 points higher than the market did.play 135
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:05TB +13% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
2nd · 1:46MIA +13% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:04TB +12% win prob(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-56-Q.Bell at MIA 41.
1st · 4:37MIA +12% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:24MIA +9% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-J.McMillan to MIA 41 for 33 yards (23-J.Jones).
2nd · 11:08MIA +8% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard pushed ob at TB 5 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Riley Patterson's 29-yard field goal with 8:23 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.11Dolphins: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Buccaneers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.22Dolphins: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Buccaneers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.00Dolphins: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Dolphins 4.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Dolphins 380-300 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +9.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 16.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.3% in week 16 against 77.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Dolphins10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.1%, 22.9 points above their season mean of 54.2% and 1.8 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Q.Ewers pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:37 · Dolphins · 3rd & 8 at MIA 37 · gained 63 · +6.16 EP · +18.8% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1380%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.3333%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.0775%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7271%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2957%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.4743%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 39
Buccaneers6Dolphins0
Buccaneers7Dolphins0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Dolphins 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers7Dolphins6
Buccaneers7Dolphins7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 45
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Buccaneers7Dolphins10
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Buccaneers 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 39
Buccaneers7Dolphins16
Buccaneers7Dolphins17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Buccaneers 10
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Dolphins 37
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers10Dolphins17
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 20
4th quarter52 plays
Buccaneers10Dolphins20
Field goal2 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Dolphins 27
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Dolphins 32
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Dolphins 31
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Buccaneers 39
Buccaneers16Dolphins20
Buccaneers17Dolphins20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Dolphins 4
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -5.5
Closing total
44.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-250
Dolphins moneyline
+205
Buccaneers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Mike McDaniel
4th · 4:31
MIA +8% win prob
(4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at MIA 38 for 11 yards (40-W.Gay).
2nd · 6:13TB +8% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 11-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Marshall at MIA 15. 33-J.Marshall to MIA 40 for 25 yards (88-C.Otton). PENALTY on MIA-23-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 39.
