For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 20 at Los Angeles Rams 37. Final.
Rams -14.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Los Angeles Rams 37, Cardinals 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:57, 1st and 7, on Josiah Deguara — 14.3 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:57 · 1st and 7
Josiah Deguara
Cardinals
(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
Dome
Rams closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Los Angeles Rams 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:57, Cardinals +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jacoby BrissettRamsQ1 13:10(13:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (10-J.Stewart). FUMBLES (10-J.Stewart) [10-J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at ARI 23. 91-K.Turner to ARI 23 for no gain (71-J.Gaines).
8.4pts
Colby ParkinsonRamsQ3 0:50(:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 11 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cardinals165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
Swing −14.3 for RamsExpected points −1.43 for RamsThe model had Cardinals 27 points higher than the market did.play 116
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:57LA +14% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
3rd · 0:50LA +9% win prob(:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:10ARI +8% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (10-J.Stewart). FUMBLES (10-J.Stewart) [10-J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at ARI 23. 91-K.Turner to ARI 23 for no gain (71-J.Gaines).
2nd · 1:26LA +8% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:21LA +8% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 21 for 21 yards (28-E.Jones; 3-B.Baker). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
1st · 3:30LA +7% win prob(3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 21-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:11Harrison Mevis·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
1st3:30Chad Ryland·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap A.Brewer+33–3
2nd11:49Harrison Mevis·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaide+33–6
2nd9:40Chad Ryland·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap A.Brewer+36–6
2nd1:26Puka Nacua·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+76–13
2nd0:05Harrison Mevis·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaide+36–16
3rd0:50Colby Parkinson·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+720–23
4th10:44Tyler Higbee·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–30
4th4:19Colby Parkinson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–37
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals1–8Rams
317Total yards398
6.0Yards per play5.9
43%Success rate54%
36%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays9
17First downs25
6Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.38Rams: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Cardinals: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.02Rams: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 53 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Rams’s 68 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Rams30.0%
leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 17.9% and 1.4 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%55 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Every snap100%55 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%55 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%55 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time95%52 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time93%51 snaps
89Xavier WeaverWR · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Heavy rotation60%33 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
86Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational27%15 snaps
58Hayden ConnerG · Rotational27%15 snaps
37Corey KinerRB · Rotational25%14 snaps
49Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational22%12 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational22%12 snaps
45Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational11%6 snaps
83Tejhaun PalmerWR · Situational7%4 snaps
80Steven SimsWR · Situational4%2 snaps
66Demontrey JacobsT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Max MeltonCBKalen KingCBEvan BrownGAustin KeysILBJoshua KartyKPJ MustipherNTRivaldo FairweatherTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 21 for 21 yards (28-E.Jones; 3-B.Baker). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
Q3 1:21 · Rams · 2nd & 9 at ARI 42 · gained 21 · +1.96 EP · +13.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 83 yards from the ARI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
48%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR48+0.1746%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1982%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3989%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14-0.8357%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.4875%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 30
Cardinals0Rams3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 15
Cardinals3Rams3
Field goal16 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Rams 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 42
2nd quarter52 plays
Cardinals3Rams6
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 18
Cardinals6Rams6
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Rams 32
Cardinals6Rams12
Cardinals6Rams13
Touchdown22 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cardinals 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 29
Cardinals6Rams16
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Cardinals 22
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cardinals12Rams16
Cardinals13Rams16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Rams 43
Punt5 plays
Cardinals19Rams16
Cardinals20Rams16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Rams 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cardinals20Rams22
Cardinals20Rams23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Cardinals 21
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 17
Cardinals20Rams29
Cardinals20Rams30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Cardinals 22
Punt6 plays
Cardinals20Rams36
Cardinals20Rams37
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Cardinals 1
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Rams 11
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
