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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · SoFi Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

20

Los Angeles RamsWinner

37

LA -14.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:57, LA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑ARI ↓
Q3 · 3:57ARI 19 — LA 16ARI ball · 1st & 7LA 72%

(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 3:57LA +14% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
  2. Q3 · 0:50LA +9% win prob(:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 13:10ARI +8% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (10-J.Stewart). FUMBLES (10-J.Stewart) [10-J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at ARI 23. 91-K.Turner to ARI 23 for no gain (71-J.Gaines).
  4. Q2 · 1:26LA +8% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:11LA Field goal

    (11:11) 92-H.Mevis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — LA 3
  2. Q1 · 3:30ARI Field goal

    (3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — LA 3
  3. Q2 · 11:49LA Field goal

    (11:49) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — LA 6
  4. Q2 · 9:40ARI Field goal

    (9:40) 38-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — LA 6
  5. Q2 · 1:26LA Touchdown

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — LA 13
  6. Q2 · 0:05LA Field goal

    (:05) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — LA 16
  7. Q3 · 10:44ARI Touchdown

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-M.Wilson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 13 — LA 16
  8. Q3 · 3:57ARI Touchdown

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — LA 16
  9. Q3 · 0:50LA Touchdown

    (:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — LA 23
  10. Q4 · 10:44LA Touchdown

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — LA 30
  11. Q4 · 4:19LA Touchdown

    (4:19) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — LA 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsRams
Offensive plays5368
Total yards317398 (edge)
Yards per play6.0 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.040.24 (edge)
Success rate43%54% (edge)
Dropback rate75%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.060.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.02 (edge)
Third downs4/119/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)89 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1725 (edge)
Sacks taken61 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/40, 259 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.8 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

22/31, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.1 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Blake CorumRB

13 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

5/8 for 99 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler HigbeeTE

5/6 for 91 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 23452:00Fumble
2LAARI 23471:53Field goal +3
3ARIARI 1714667:41Field goal +3
4LALA 2814596:41Field goal +3
5ARIARI 357272:10Field goal +3
6LALA 2620748:13Touchdown +7
7ARIARI 183110:33Interception
8LALA 317420:49Field goal +3
9LALA 335-11:19Punt
10ARIARI 276833:03Touchdown +7
11LALA 32500:30Punt
12ARIARI 2411716:17Touchdown +7
13LALA 308703:09Touchdown +7
14ARIARI 20542:10Punt
15LALA 347662:53Touchdown +7
16ARIARI 35531:27Punt
17LALA 1913814:57Touchdown +7
18ARIARI 3511472:28Turnover on downs
19LALA 18301:47End of game

11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 83 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett22/31243216-3.1
Matt Haack1/1280004.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Emari Demercado22914.501.0
Jacoby Brissett3196.300.2
Michael Carter7182.60-1.2
Corey Kiner3134.300.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Wilson5899129%4.8
Trey McBride7865029%1.5
Emari Demercado112804%4.4
Elijah Higgins3328011%2.9
Michael Carter3321011%1.0
Corey Kiner2315011%-0.4
Josiah Deguara221517%2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Thompson730.000
Cody Simon530.000
Budda Baker520.000
Denzel Burke510.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither230.000
Darius Robinson220.000
Elijah Jones030.002
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson120.000
Zachary Carter120.000
Dante Stills120.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford25/4025940115.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams12605.00-2.2
Blake Corum13594.500.7
Puka Nacua22412.002.1
Matthew Stafford133.00-0.3
Jimmy Garoppolo3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Higbee5691116%8.1
Puka Nacua101176130%9.6
Colby Parkinson4736219%2.3
Kyren Williams3521014%-1.4
Tutu Atwell131908%-0.7
Blake Corum111003%0.4
Xavier Smith12605%0.4
Konata Mumpfield01003%-0.6
Davis Allen01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylen McCollough520.000
Kamren Kinchens420.000
Omar Speights410.000
Kam Curl230.001
Roger McCreary210.000
Desjuan Johnson302.000
Nate Landman210.000
Jared Verse301.000
Emmanuel Forbes200.001
Troy Reeder200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -14.5
Closing total
49.5
ARI moneyline
+800
LA moneyline
-1350

Rams closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 57 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
ARI 7 days · LA 6 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.