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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

24

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

26

BAL -4.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓25°F

Pittsburgh Steelers 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, BAL +61% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 0:02BAL 24 — PIT 26BAL ball · 2nd & 12BAL 61%

(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02BAL +61% win prob(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
  2. Q4 · 0:21PIT +40% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
  3. Q4 · 2:30PIT +38% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q4 · 1:00PIT +31% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:01BAL Touchdown

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — PIT 0
  2. Q2 · 13:37BAL Field goal

    (13:37) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 0
  3. Q2 · 8:56PIT Field goal

    (8:56) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 3
  4. Q3 · 8:24PIT Touchdown

    (8:24) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-91-B.Okoye, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 10
  5. Q3 · 4:31PIT Field goal

    (4:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 13
  6. Q4 · 8:52BAL Touchdown

    (8:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — PIT 13
  7. Q4 · 3:53PIT Touchdown

    (3:53) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BAL-2-N.Wiggins has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — PIT 20
  8. Q4 · 2:30BAL Touchdown

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — PIT 20
  9. Q4 · 1:00PIT Touchdown

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — PIT 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensSteelers
Offensive plays4773
Total yards361390 (edge)
Yards per play7.7 (edge)5.3
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)0.06
Success rate34%45% (edge)
Dropback rate45%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.41 (edge)0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.08 (edge)-0.22
Third downs4/139/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1122 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

31/47, 294 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11/18, 238 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.7 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 126 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

4/6 for 138 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

8/9 for 64 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 15101004:06Touchdown +7
2PITPIT 37611:29Punt
3BALBAL 14834:26Punt
4PITPIT 257203:17Turnover on downs
5BALPIT 456233:09Field goal +3
6PITPIT 259364:41Field goal +3
7BALBAL 35562:42Punt
8PITPIT 17400:31Punt
9BALBAL 356332:30Punt
10PITPIT 913813:09End of half
11PITPIT 3314676:37Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 34400:58Interception
13PITBAL 266192:57Field goal +3
14BALBAL 237183:24Punt
15PITPIT 129365:12Punt
16BALBAL 295712:10Touchdown +7
17PITPIT 4010654:53Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 275731:29Touchdown +7
19PITPIT 358651:25Touchdown +6
20BALBAL 477340:55Missed field goal

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 100 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson11/182383138.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry201266.301.0
Lamar Jackson492.300.1
Keaton Mitchell221.00-0.9
Rasheen Ali100.00-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers46138235%10.6
Devontez Walker2246112%7.0
Isaiah Likely2232012%2.4
Mark Andrews2314018%-1.0
Patrick Ricard11806%0.2
Derrick Henry01006%-0.8
DeAndre Hopkins020012%-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Trenton Simpson630.000
Kyle Hamilton630.001
Marlon Humphrey520.001
Chidobe Awuzie610.000
Alohi Gilman520.001
Tavius Robinson331.000
Travis Jones141.000
Nate Wiggins130.002
Brent Urban120.000
Roquan Smith120.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers31/472941027.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren14664.70-1.2
Aaron Rodgers12020.001.9
Kenneth Gainwell5102.01-2.6
Connor Heyward320.71-0.8
Jonnu Smith122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kenneth Gainwell8964020%2.4
Calvin Austin III3755116%2.5
Pat Freiermuth3551011%3.6
Adam Thielen3643014%1.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling5734016%1.8
Jaylen Warren5533011%2.4
Scott Miller22905%-0.3
Connor Heyward11302%-0.1
Jonnu Smith12205%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cameron Heyward520.000
Keeanu Benton430.000
Jalen Ramsey420.001
Malik Harrison320.000
Payton Wilson120.000
Connor Heyward110.000
Derrick Harmon201.000
Alex Highsmith201.001
James Pierre200.000
T.J. Watt110.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Closing total
41.5
BAL moneyline
-225
PIT moneyline
+185

Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 50 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
25°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
BAL 8 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.