For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 24 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Ravens -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Ravens 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 12, on Tyler Loop — 61.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 12
Tyler Loop
Steelers
(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
O 41.5 ✓
27°F
Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Steelers +61.5% win probability on one snap.
61.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zay FlowersRavensQ4 2:30(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
38.2pts
Isaiah LikelyRavensQ4 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
39.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Ravens at 4 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens159 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Swing +61.5 for SteelersExpected points +2.35 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 7 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02BAL +61% win prob(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
4th · 0:21PIT +40% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
4th · 2:30PIT +38% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 1:00PIT +31% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:52PIT +30% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:08PIT +18% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to BAL 5 for 31 yards (24-M.Starks).
4th · 3:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Calvin Austin III's 26-yard touchdown catch with 1:00 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:00Calvin Austin III·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgersfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick blocked by K.JacksonLead never changed again+624–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens2–7Steelers
361Total yards390
7.7Yards per play5.3
34%Success rate45%
31%Third-down rate56%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
11First downs22
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.19Steelers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Ravens: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.22Steelers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 47 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Steelers’s 73 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Steelers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −24.6 pts, is past their previous low of −20.9 pts in week 17 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 65.5%, is past their previous high of 63.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Steelers23.8%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -24.6 pts, 16.1 points below their season mean of -8.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Loop−54% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 0:02 · Ravens · 2nd & 12 at PIT 26 · gained nothing · -2.35 EP · −54.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 89 yards from the PIT 9 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
749
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1687%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.1518%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16-0.3238%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2573%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8-0.0663%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2513%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Ravens6Steelers0
Ravens7Steelers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Steelers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Ravens 46
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 45
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Ravens10Steelers0
Field goal3 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 22
Ravens10Steelers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 39
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Steelers 42
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended18 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Ravens 1
3rd quarter36 plays
Ravens10Steelers9
Ravens10Steelers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Ravens 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Ravens10Steelers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 7
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 36
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 18
4th quarter51 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Ravens16Steelers13
Ravens17Steelers13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 29 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens17Steelers19
Ravens17Steelers20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Ravens 2
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Ravens23Steelers20
Ravens24Steelers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens24Steelers26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Ravens 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Steelers 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -4.5
Closing total
41.5
Ravens moneyline
-225
Steelers moneyline
+185
Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 50 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 27°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Ravens 8 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
PIT +15% win prob
(3:53) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BAL-2-N.Wiggins has returned to the game.
2nd · 0:02BAL +13% win prob(:02) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left end to BAL 2 for -1 yards (12-A.Gilman, 53-K.Van Noy).
