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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina14
BY 2final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay16
Carolina Panthers 14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16. Final.
Buccaneers -3 no coverU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 11:15, 1st and 10 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:15 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Buccaneers
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
12.6
Buccaneers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:15, Buccaneers +12.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tetairoa McMillanPanthersQ4 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
11.7pts
Jalen CokerBuccaneersQ4 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
10.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 8 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.24 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Panthers147 of 159 plays carry both curves
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Swing +12.6 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.99 for BuccaneersThe model had Panthers 5 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:15CAR +13% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
4th · 3:10TB +12% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
4th · 0:03CAR +11% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
2nd · 0:31TB +8% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at CAR 31 for 22 yards (21-N.Scott) [94-A.Robinson].
4th · 2:12TB +8% win prob(2:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 45 for 20 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
2nd · 10:56TB +7% win prob(10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade Otton's 18-yard touchdown catch with 9:35 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Panthers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.33Buccaneers: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.57Panthers: −0.57 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 47 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 66 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.5 pts in week 17 against −16.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Buccaneers2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 28.3% and 1.7 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%51 snaps
63Austin CorbettC · Every snap100%51 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%51 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%51 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
64Cade MaysC · Every snap100%51 snaps
18Jalen CokerWR · Full-time92%47 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Full-time90%46 snaps
4Tetairoa McMillanWR · Full-time88%45 snaps
5Rico DowdleRB · Heavy rotation53%27 snaps
84Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational45%23 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Rotational45%23 snaps
17Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational31%16 snaps
15Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational31%16 snaps
87Brycen TremayneWR · Situational14%7 snaps
85James MitchellTE · Situational8%4 snaps
23Trevor EtienneRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Robert RochellCBTershawn WhartonDTJared Harrison-HunteDTDemani RichardsonFSClaudin CherelusILBD'Anthony BellSSHunter RenfrowWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Dowdle FUMBLES−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Q4 11:15 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at TB 20 · gained nothing · -5.99 EP · −17.6% win probability
145 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 74 yards from the TB 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
623
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0534%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0187%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1942%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1242%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers0Buccaneers6
Panthers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Panthers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to midfield
Panthers0Buccaneers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Panthers 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 45
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 23
Panthers6Buccaneers10
Panthers7Buccaneers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Buccaneers 49
Panthers7Buccaneers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Panthers 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter32 plays
No good10 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Panthers 48
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 32
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Panthers 35
4th quarter47 plays
Panthers7Buccaneers16
Field goal2 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 30
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Buccaneers 20
No good11 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Panthers 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Panthers13Buccaneers16
Panthers14Buccaneers16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Buccaneers 8
The period ended14 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Panthers 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 3 to the Panthers 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
43.5
Panthers moneyline
+130
Buccaneers moneyline
-155
Buccaneers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; 0.15 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Panthers 6 days · Buccaneers 6 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Todd Bowles
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 2:31
TB +7% win prob
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:28CAR +7% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans).
