For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q4 11:15, 1st and 10 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:15, Buccaneers +12.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:15 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Buccaneers
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 8 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.24 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cade Otton's 18-yard touchdown catch with 9:35 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cade Otton18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 47 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 66 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TB's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 11 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.5 pts in week 17 against −16.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers3.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 47 snaps
Buccaneers-16.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.9 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Panthers67.6%leaned — passed early · +14.7 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 37 early downs
Buccaneers33.3%leaned — ran early · −20.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 49%
Tendencies room →Panthers26.5%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.9%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 68.0%.
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers42.9%leaned — sent pressure · +14.5 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.68× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Buccaneers47.1%leaned — sent pressure · +9.4 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Panthers10.7%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Buccaneers2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
CAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 28.3% and 1.7 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
24/35, 266 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.4 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
16/22, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Cade Otton banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +7.0 | 96% | 96% | 41% | 33% | 7/9, 94 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen CokerWR · Featured Receiver | 16.7 | +4.8 | 92% | 94% | 23% | 24% | 6/7, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | +4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 266 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 13.2 | −0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 203 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 31 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +6.8 | 90% | 83% | 13% | 10% | 3/4, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 12.5 | +2.2 | 88% | 89% | 20% | 40% | 4/6, 85 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.8 | −5.8 | 63% | 50% | 9% | 2% | 26 car, 85 yd · 1/2, 13 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 6.1 | −0.9 | 33% | 54% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 23 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.0 | 75% | 79% | 9% | 20% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.2 | 31% | 43% | 13% | 18% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 3.7 | −2.0 | 45% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 5 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.4 | 13% | 14% | 5% | 11% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 17 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 3.0 | −1.9 | 53% | 51% | 7% | 0% | 7 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.6 | 31% | 31% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 55% | 57% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −4.4 | 58% | 68% | 14% | 20% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 70% | 57% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 45% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 27% | 21% | 5% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Sean TuckerRB | -0.4 | −2.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Q4 11:15 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at TB 20 · gained nothing · -5.99 EP · −17.6% win probability
145 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 74 yards from the TB 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Buccaneers6Panthers0Buccaneers7Panthers0Buccaneers10Panthers6Buccaneers10Panthers7Buccaneers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers7Buccaneers13Panthers7Buccaneers16How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers13Buccaneers16Panthers14Buccaneers16How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 24/35 | 266 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 | −7.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Bryce Young | 2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 20% | +4.5 |
| Jalen Coker | 6 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/22 | 203 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_CAR_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -1 |
| -0.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| 23% |
| −0.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 13% | +4.0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Mike Jackson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 | 41% | +4.1 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9% | +3.2 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +1.4 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −4.8 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
