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2025 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

14

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

16

TB -3 no coverU 43.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:15, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑CAR ↓
Q4 · 11:15CAR 7 — TB 16CAR ball · 1st & 10TB 78%

(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 11:15CAR +13% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
  2. Q4 · 3:10TB +12% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
  3. Q4 · 0:03CAR +11% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
  4. Q2 · 0:31TB +8% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at CAR 31 for 22 yards (21-N.Scott) [94-A.Robinson].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:35TB Touchdown

    (9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 7
  2. Q1 · 2:01TB Field goal

    (2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 10
  3. Q2 · 10:56CAR Touchdown

    (10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 10
  4. Q2 · 0:05TB Field goal

    (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 13
  5. Q4 · 14:17TB Field goal

    (14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 16
  6. Q4 · 2:31CAR Touchdown

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBuccaneers
Offensive plays4766
Total yards286338 (edge)
Yards per play6.1 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play-0.020.01 (edge)
Success rate43%44% (edge)
Dropback rate72%42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.190.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.57-0.24 (edge)
Third downs1/88/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1519 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers31 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

24/35, 266 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.4 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

16/22, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

26 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

7 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Cade OttonTE

7/9 for 94 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

4/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2611745:29Touchdown +7
2CARCAR 35602:07Punt
3TBTB 2011565:27Field goal +3
4CARCAR 356272:09Punt
5TBTB 66172:30Interception
6CARTB 194191:28Touchdown +7
7TBTB 1511296:29Punt
8CARCAR 166352:30Interception
9TBTB 427401:49Field goal +3
10CARCAR 35200:02End of half
11CARCAR 3511364:33Missed field goal
12TBTB 44482:19Punt
13CARCAR 76203:38Punt
14TBTB 319265:18Field goal +3
15CARCAR 357453:05Fumble
16TBTB 2910565:55Missed field goal
17CARCAR 289722:45Touchdown +7
18TBTB 298322:09Punt
19CARCAR 33320:18Fumble

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young24/352662106.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle7101.40-7.1
Chuba Hubbard5102.001.2
Bryce Young2-1-0.50-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tetairoa McMillan4685020%4.5
Jalen Coker6747123%-0.0
Tommy Tremble3438113%4.0
Brycen Tremayne222707%0.6
Xavier Legette3422013%0.3
Rico Dowdle222007%0.9
Jimmy Horn Jr.111503%0.7
Chuba Hubbard22707%-0.9
Mitchell Evans12507%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derrick Brown580.000
Nick Scott630.000
Christian Rozeboom620.012
Mike Jackson430.000
Tre'von Moehrig421.000
Krys Barnes140.500
D.J. Wonnum410.000
Nic Scourton230.500
A'Shawn Robinson140.000
Chau Smith-Wade310.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield16/222031126.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving26853.30-3.4
Baker Mayfield4317.802.6
Rachaad White7233.30-2.2
Tez Johnson155.00-0.1
Sean Tucker4-4-1.00-3.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cade Otton7994141%4.1
Mike Evans223409%3.2
Rachaad White221809%2.1
Tez Johnson111705%1.4
Bucky Irving121309%0.6
Jalen McMillan111105%1.8
Emeka Egbuka138014%-4.8
Chris Godwin Jr.11805%0.9
Payne Durham01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David510.000
Tykee Smith410.000
Jacob Parrish300.011
Vita Vea300.000
Yaya Diaby210.000
Antoine Winfield Jr.120.001
Christian Izien200.000
J.T. Gray200.000
Benjamin Morrison110.000
Haason Reddick110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -3
Closing total
43.5
CAR moneyline
+130
TB moneyline
-155

Buccaneers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
CAR 6 days · TB 6 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.