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2025 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
14
16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:15, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
How the points landed
(9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 7(2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 10(10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 10(:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined.
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 13(14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 16(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Panthers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 47 | 66 |
| Total yards | 286 | 338 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.1 (edge) | 5.1 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.02 | 0.01 (edge) |
| Success rate | 43% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 72% | 42% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.19 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.57 | -0.24 (edge) |
| Third downs | 1/8 | 8/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 4 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 (edge) |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
24/35, 266 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.4 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
16/22, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 26 | 11 | 74 | 5:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 35 | 6 | 0 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 3 | TB | TB 20 | 11 | 56 | 5:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 35 | 6 | 27 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 5 | TB | TB 6 | 6 | 17 | 2:30 | Interception | |
| 6 | CAR | TB 19 | 4 | 19 | 1:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | TB | TB 15 | 11 | 29 | 6:29 | Punt | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 16 | 6 | 35 | 2:30 | Interception | |
| 9 | TB | TB 42 | 7 | 40 | 1:49 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 35 | 2 | 0 | 0:02 | End of half | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 35 | 11 | 36 | 4:33 | Missed field goal | |
| 12 | TB | TB 44 | 4 | 8 | 2:19 | Punt | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 7 | 6 | 20 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 14 | TB | TB 31 | 9 | 26 | 5:18 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 35 | 7 | 45 | 3:05 | Fumble | |
| 16 | TB | TB 29 | 10 | 56 | 5:55 | Missed field goal | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 28 | 9 | 72 | 2:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | TB | TB 29 | 8 | 32 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 3 | 3 | 32 | 0:18 | Fumble |
6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 24/35 | 266 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 | -7.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 20% | 4.5 |
| Jalen Coker | 6 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 23% | -0.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mike Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/22 | 203 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4.0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | 0.6 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | 0.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 0.9 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -0.9 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | -0.9 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 | 41% | 4.1 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9% | 3.2 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | 2.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | 1.4 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | 0.6 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14% | -4.8 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
