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New York Giants 34, Cowboys 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:31, 3rd and 16, on Daniel Bellinger — 25.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:31 · 3rd and 16
Daniel Bellinger
Giants
(:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].
31°F
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:31, Giants +25.6% win probability on one snap.
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ1 1:1712-J.Gillan kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 11 for 84 yards (23-A.Green).
12.0pts
Jaxson DartGiantsQ4 14:10(14:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 89-I.Hodgins (21-C.Carson) [90-S.Thomas]. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at NYG 18 - No Play.
10.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 2 of 8 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.13 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cowboys162 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].
Swing +25.6 for GiantsExpected points +4.59 for GiantsThe model had Giants 20 points higher than the market did.play 83
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:31NYG +26% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].
1st · 1:17NYG +12% win prob12-J.Gillan kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 11 for 84 yards (23-A.Green).
4th · 14:10NYG +11% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 89-I.Hodgins (21-C.Carson) [90-S.Thomas]. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at NYG 18 - No Play.
1st · 10:06DAL +11% win prob(10:06) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at DAL 28.
3rd · 1:52NYG +9% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton left end pushed ob at NYG 24 for 23 yards (36-R.Payton).
1st · 0:32NYG +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 23-J.Blue up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Bellinger's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:31 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:20Ben Sauls·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
1st5:24Brandon Aubrey·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–3
1st1:20Ben Sauls·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–6
Giants ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Cowboys: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Cowboys: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Cowboys: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Giants’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Giants 6.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, −12.8 pts, is past their previous low of −8.9 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 22.2% in week 17 against 38.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.7% in week 17 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.8 pts, 11.9 points below their season mean of -0.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:06) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at DAL 28.
Q1 10:06 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 30 · gained nothing · -5.53 EP · −14.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 91 yards from the NYG 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.1162%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1751%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1821%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2625%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Cowboys 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys0Giants3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys3Giants3
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Giants 4
Cowboys3Giants6
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Cowboys 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys9Giants6
Cowboys10Giants6
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Cowboys10Giants9
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Cowboys 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Giants 3
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys10Giants15
Cowboys10Giants16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 4 to the Cowboys 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 18
Cowboys10Giants22
Cowboys10Giants24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Cowboys 13
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Giants 39
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Giants 47 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Giants 4
4th quarter45 plays
Cowboys16Giants24
Cowboys17Giants24
Touchdown2 plays
Cowboys17Giants27
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Cowboys 12
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys17Giants33
Cowboys17Giants34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 6
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 32
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3
Closing total
50.5
Cowboys moneyline
-166
Giants moneyline
+140
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 31°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Cowboys 10 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Brian Daboll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 12:39
NYG +8% win prob
(12:39) 12-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-23-A.Green.
2nd · 1:21NYG +8% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end pushed ob at NYG 31 for 5 yards (59-K.Murray). PENALTY on DAL-59-K.Murray, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 31.
