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live · 12s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 1 h ago · 7 live · 5 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q2 0:31, 3rd and 16, on Daniel Bellinger — 25.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:31, Giants +25.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:31 · 3rd and 16
Daniel Bellinger
Giants
(:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].
25.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 2 of 8 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Bellinger's 29-yard touchdown catch with 0:31 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Daniel Bellinger29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Jaxson DartLead never changed again+710–16Tyrone Tracy Jr.13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jaxson Dart · two-point good+810–2410 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 53 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Giants’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Giants 6.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's pass rate over expected, −12.8 pts, is past their previous low of −8.9 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
DAL's early-down pass rate, 41.9%, is past their previous low of 45.9% in week 17 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 22.2% in week 17 against 38.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.7% in week 17 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-12.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −11.9 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−2.47× that swing) · 53 snaps
Giants2.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 81%
Tendencies room →Cowboys41.9%leaned — ran early · −13.3 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 43 early downs
Giants50.9%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cowboys38.5%leaned — faked the run · +10.9 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Giants31.7%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 53.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 64%
Tendencies room →Cowboys14.6%leaned — sat back · −12.6 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants34.6%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Cowboys24.4%leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants7.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
DAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.8 pts, 11.9 points below their season mean of -0.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
22/32, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
7/13, 73 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.2 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
8/9 for 102 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Daniel Bellinger banked 9.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 27.9 | +0.9 | 69% | 78% | 28% | 8% | 18 car, 103 yd · 8/9, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 20.4 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/32, 230 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 32 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.2 | +3.0 | 84% | 90% | 28% | 42% | 0/1, 0 yd · 8/9, 102 yd |
| Jaydon BlueRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | +0.3 | 60% | 58% | 0% | — | 16 car, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | +1.2 | 87% | 92% | 30% | 32% | 5/7, 68 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +9.5 | 92% | 93% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Phil MafahRB | 10.9 | +2.5 | 18% | 12% | 9% | 0% | 5 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 10.6 | +2.6 | 32% | 24% | 0% | — | 9 car, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.4 | −7.8 | 87% | 90% | 28% | 22% | 4/9, 34 yd |
| Joe Milton IIIQB | 5.2 | −4.7 | 49% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 73 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 43 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −0.8 | 31% | 23% | 13% | 24% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 2.6 | −1.2 | 24% | 31% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 12 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +1.1 | 29% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −6.8 | 45% | 38% | 13% | 8% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.1 | 60% | 62% | 9% | 0% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 45% | 38% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB | 0.7 | −8.8 | 51% | — | 0% | — | 7/11, 70 yd · 2 car, -1 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −2.0 | 16% | 19% | 4% | 23% | 1 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 38% | 46% | 4% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 44% | 54% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 31% | 22% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.3 | 96% | 98% | 6% | 20% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Dalen CambreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:06) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at DAL 28.
Q1 10:06 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 30 · gained nothing · -5.53 EP · −14.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 91 yards from the NYG 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Cowboys0
Giants3Cowboys3Giants3Cowboys3Giants6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cowboys9Giants6Cowboys10Giants6Cowboys10Giants9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Cowboys10Giants15Cowboys10Giants16Cowboys10Giants22Cowboys10Giants24Cowboys16Giants24Cowboys17Giants24Cowboys17Giants27Cowboys17Giants33Cowboys17Giants34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Milton III | 7/13 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 7/11 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaydon Blue | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Joe Milton III | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Flournoy | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 30% | +3.9 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shemar James | 3 | 10 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 22/32 | 230 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +13.8 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_DAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Phil Mafah | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −5.5 |
| 13% |
| −2.6 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Phil Mafah | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −3.8 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Caelen Carson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Butler | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trikweze Bridges | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Wilson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Jaxson Dart | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunner Olszewski | 8 | 9 | 102 | 0 | 28% | +6.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 8 | 9 | 56 | 1 | 28% | −0.4 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 6% | +5.7 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 28% | +2.7 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.2 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Payton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Raheem Layne | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Art Green | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
