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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Soldier Field
19
16
Detroit Lions 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, CHI +23% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
How the points landed
(8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 3 — CHI 0(11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 6 — CHI 0(4:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 0(2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 0(14:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 20-J.Walker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 8(5:28) 74-J.McFadden reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 16(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 19 — CHI 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Lions | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 54 |
| Total yards | 433 (edge) | 274 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 5.1 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.14 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | -0.05 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/13 (edge) | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
27/42, 331 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
12.3 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
20/33, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.4 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
11/15 for 139 yds, 0 TD
42% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added
Receiving · CHI
10/13 for 91 yds, 1 TD
45% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | DET 29 | 12 | 55 | 6:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 26 | 10 | 30 | 4:56 | Punt | |
| 3 | DET | DET 22 | 16 | 76 | 7:11 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | CHI | CHI 31 | 5 | 0 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 5 | DET | DET 24 | 10 | 71 | 5:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 31 | 10 | 39 | 4:10 | Fumble | |
| 7 | DET | DET 30 | 6 | 35 | 0:30 | Missed field goal | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 28 | 5 | 6 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 9 | DET | DET 20 | 5 | 10 | 3:09 | Punt | |
| 10 | CHI | CHI 31 | 7 | 32 | 2:44 | Interception | |
| 11 | DET | DET 20 | 11 | 74 | 5:34 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | CHI | CHI 35 | 9 | 62 | 2:55 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 13 | DET | DET 31 | 6 | 23 | 2:55 | Punt | |
| 14 | CHI | CHI 12 | 13 | 90 | 5:56 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 15 | DET | DET 20 | 11 | 50 | 3:14 | Interception | |
| 16 | CHI | CHI 26 | 4 | 15 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 17 | DET | DET 37 | 6 | 39 | 1:41 | Field goal +3 |
7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/42 | 331 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 | -0.4 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 15 | 139 | 0 | 42% | 6.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 | 22% | 5.6 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/33 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 35 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14% | 2.8 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8% | -1.6 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Barnes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Lacy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Wingo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 10 | 13 | 91 | 1 | 45% | 2.5 |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 10% | 2.6 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 14% | 2.8 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | 2.1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | -4.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | -1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquan Brisker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Billings | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
