2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Soldier Field

Detroit LionsWinner

Chicago Bears

CHI -3.5 upsetU 51.5 ✓Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, CHI +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02DET 19 — CHI 16DET ball · 3rd & 8DET 77%

(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02CHI +23% win prob(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 · 0:42CHI +17% win prob(:42) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Jones).
Q4 · 2:26DET +16% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on DET-16-J.Goff, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 25.
Q4 · 2:23DET +13% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard (9-J.Brisker) at CHI 5. 31-K.Byard to CHI 26 for 21 yards (64-C.Hubbard; 18-I.TeSlaa).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:40DET Field goal
(8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 3 — CHI 0
Q2 · 11:32DET Field goal
(11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 6 — CHI 0
Q2 · 4:46DET Touchdown
(4:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 0
Q3 · 2:15DET Field goal
(2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 0
Q4 · 14:20CHI Touchdown
(14:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 20-J.Walker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 8
Q4 · 5:28CHI Touchdown
(5:28) 74-J.McFadden reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DET 16 — CHI 16
Q4 · 0:02DET Field goal
(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 19 — CHI 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Bears
Offensive plays	72	54
Total yards	433 (edge)	274
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	54% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	63%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

27/42, 331 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

12.3 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

20/33, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.4 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

19 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

11/15 for 139 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Colston LovelandTE

10/13 for 91 yds, 1 TD

45% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 29	12	55	6:25	Field goal +3
2	CHI	CHI 26	10	30	4:56	Punt
3	DET	DET 22	16	76	7:11	Field goal +3
4	CHI	CHI 31	5	0	1:42	Punt
5	DET	DET 24	10	71	5:06	Touchdown +7
6	CHI	CHI 31	10	39	4:10	Fumble
7	DET	DET 30	6	35	0:30	Missed field goal
8	CHI	CHI 28	5	6	1:22	Punt
9	DET	DET 20	5	10	3:09	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 31	7	32	2:44	Interception
11	DET	DET 20	11	74	5:34	Field goal +3
12	CHI	CHI 35	9	62	2:55	Touchdown +8
13	DET	DET 31	6	23	2:55	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 12	13	90	5:56	Touchdown +8
15	DET	DET 20	11	50	3:14	Interception
16	CHI	CHI 26	4	15	0:30	Punt
17	DET	DET 37	6	39	1:41	Field goal +3

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	27/42	331	1	1	2	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jahmyr Gibbs	19	80	4.2	0	-0.4
David Montgomery	8	42	5.3	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	11	15	139	0	42%	6.0
Jameson Williams	6	8	74	0	22%	5.6
Kalif Raymond	3	3	52	0	8%	3.7
Jahmyr Gibbs	3	5	33	1	14%	2.8
Isaac TeSlaa	1	1	18	0	3%	1.1
David Montgomery	1	1	13	0	3%	0.8
Anthony Firkser	2	3	2	0	8%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jack Campbell	4	7	0.0	0	1
Daniel Thomas	2	5	0.0	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	4	2	1.0	0	0
Malcolm Rodriguez	4	0	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	2	2	0.0	0	1
Avonte Maddox	3	1	0.0	1	1
Derrick Barnes	3	0	0.0	0	1
Tyler Lacy	1	1	0.0	0	0
Mekhi Wingo	1	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	1	1	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Caleb Williams	20/33	212	2	1	1	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	10	40	4.0	1.0
Kyle Monangai	6	14	2.3	-1.0
Luther Burden III	1	10	10.0	1.0
Caleb Williams	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Colston Loveland	10	13	91	1	45%	2.5
Jahdae Walker	2	3	36	1	10%	2.6
Luther Burden III	3	4	35	0	14%	2.8
Cole Kmet	2	3	16	0	10%	2.1
Kyle Monangai	1	1	15	0	3%	-0.1
DJ Moore	1	3	11	0	10%	-4.0
D'Andre Swift	1	2	8	0	7%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kevin Byard	2	6	0.0	1	1
Tremaine Edmunds	7	1	0.0	0	0
Jaquan Brisker	5	3	0.0	0	2
Nahshon Wright	5	1	0.0	0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Andrew Billings	3	1	1.0	0	0
Montez Sweat	2	2	0.5	0	0
Gervon Dexter Sr.	2	2	1.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	2	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3.5
Closing total: 51.5
DET moneyline: +150
CHI moneyline: -180

Bears closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 35 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: DET 10 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Ben Johnson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.