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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

3

Minnesota VikingsWinner

16

MIN -12.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 4:10, MIN +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 4:10GB 0 — MIN 3GB ball · 4th & 18MIN 90%

(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:10MIN +6% win prob(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
  2. Q1 · 10:32MIN +6% win prob(10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
  3. Q1 · 0:51MIN +5% win prob(:51) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
  4. Q1 · 12:19GB +5% win prob(12:19) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right tackle pushed ob at GB 23 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon). PENALTY on MIN-9-J.McCarthy, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at GB 23.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:32MIN Field goal

    (10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 3
  2. Q2 · 3:05MIN Field goal

    (3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 6
  3. Q2 · 0:25MIN Touchdown

    (:25) 30-C.Ham left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 13
  4. Q4 · 4:13MIN Field goal

    (4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 16
  5. Q4 · 0:01GB Field goal

    (:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersVikings
Offensive plays4964
Total yards122363 (edge)
Yards per play2.55.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.33-0.04 (edge)
Success rate37%47% (edge)
Dropback rate35%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.710.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.13-0.10 (edge)
Third downs3/12 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1122 (edge)
Sacks taken42 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

14/23, 182 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Max BrosmerQB

7/8, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.4 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

14 att, 94 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Chris BrooksRB

13 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/11 for 101 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Jalen NailorWR

3/3 for 49 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 299614:33Field goal +3
2GBGB 35511:25Punt
3MINMIN 25202:37Punt
4GBGB 30522:25Punt
5MINMIN 206163:23Punt
6GBGB 10472:03Punt
7MINMIN 22441:00Punt
8GBGB 307173:30Punt
9MINMIN 914846:02Field goal +3
10GBGB 225-141:15Punt
11MINMIN 4110591:24Touchdown +7
12GBGB 20200:23End of half
13GBGB 309264:25Punt
14MINMIN 146193:27Punt
15GBGB 129335:16Punt
16MINMIN 89375:29Fumble
17GBGB 254-61:39Punt
18MINMIN 1810635:35Field goal +3
19GBGB 3914564:09Field goal +3

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Clayton Tune6/1134004-13.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Brooks13614.70-2.3
Emanuel Wilson18442.40-3.3
Clayton Tune4235.802.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobie Keeney-James2215020%-0.1
Matthew Golden138030%-0.4
Emanuel Wilson114010%-0.7
Josh Whyle114010%-0.1
Drake Dabney123020%-0.8
Bo Melton010010%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamon Johnson370.001
Barryn Sorrell531.000
Jaylin Simpson530.000
Johnathan Baldwin430.000
Kitan Oladapo410.001
Isaiah McDuffie410.000
Ty'Ron Hopper140.000
Shemar Bartholomew400.000
Javon Bullard120.000
Brenton Cox Jr.111.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
J.J. McCarthy14/231820007.6
Max Brosmer7/857002-5.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason14946.70-0.2
Ty Chandler10232.30-4.5
Zavier Scott393.00-0.8
J.J. McCarthy273.50-0.5
Justin Jefferson133.000.0
C.J. Ham111.011.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson811101037%4.4
Jalen Nailor3349010%3.5
Josh Oliver222907%2.3
Ben Sims1418013%0.2
Ty Chandler3411013%-0.8
Ben Yurosek11903%1.1
Zavier Scott11803%1.0
Jordan Addison138010%-0.2
C.J. Ham11603%0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Wilson360.000
Blake Cashman341.000
Jay Ward240.000
Dallas Turner422.000
Ivan Pace Jr.410.000
Theo Jackson311.000
Byron Murphy310.000
Jalen Redmond120.000
Jonathan Allen120.000
Andrew Van Ginkel210.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -12.5
Closing total
37.5
GB moneyline
+470
MIN moneyline
-650

Vikings closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 19 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
GB 8 days · MIN 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.