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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers144 of 153 plays carry both curves
(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
Swing −6.3 for VikingsExpected points −0.12 for VikingsThe model had Packers 26 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:10MIN +6% win prob(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
1st · 10:32MIN +6% win prob(10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
1st · 0:51MIN +5% win prob(:51) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
1st · 12:19GB +5% win prob(12:19) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right tackle pushed ob at GB 23 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon). PENALTY on MIN-9-J.McCarthy, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at GB 23.
1st · 9:14MIN +5% win prob(9:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to MIN 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.
1st · 1:36GB +4% win prob(1:36) 32-T.Chandler up the middle to MIN 41 for -1 yards (99-B.Sorrell).
2nd · 2:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 43-yard field goal with 10:32 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:32Will Reichard·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd3:05Will Reichard·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–6
4th4:13Will Reichard·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–16
4th0:01Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–16
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers2–7Vikings
122Total yards363
2.5Yards per play5.7
37%Success rate47%
25%Third-down rate20%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
11First downs22
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Packers: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.04Vikings: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.71Packers: −0.71 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Vikings: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 49 snaps at a 35% dropback rate against Vikings’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Packers 1, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, −33.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 9.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.4 pts in week 10.
3.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 4.2-swing turn from week 17.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 27.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 34.7% in week 12.
A 4.2-swing turn from week 17.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
MIN's play-action rate, 44.1%, is past their previous high of 38.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Vikings29.4%
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -33.6 pts, 29.2 points below their season mean of -4.3 pts and 3.1 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.McCarthy pass+8% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to GB 21 for 26 yards (38-J.Simpson).
Q2 0:54 · Vikings · 3rd & 8 at GB 47 · gained 26 · +2.30 EP · +8.2% win probability
142 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 153 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 84 yards from the MIN 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
153 of 153 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
153
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
484
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0066%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.0914%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0627%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.7440%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8-0.7375%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4843%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.050%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers0Vikings3
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Packers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 22
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 45
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 15
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 26
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 48
Packers0Vikings6
Field goal14 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Packers 7
Punt5 plays
Packers0Vikings12
Packers0Vikings13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter29 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 34
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 34
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Vikings 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 19
4th quarter41 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 5
Punt4 plays
Packers0Vikings16
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Packers 17
Packers3Vikings16
Field goal17 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Vikings 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
