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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium
3
16
Minnesota Vikings 16–3. Biggest swing: Q1 4:10, MIN +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
How the points landed
(10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 3(3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 6(:25) 30-C.Ham left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 13(4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIN 16(:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 49 | 64 |
| Total yards | 122 | 363 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.5 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.33 | -0.04 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 47% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 35% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.71 | 0.01 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.13 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/12 (edge) | 2/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
14/23, 182 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
7.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
7/8, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.4 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
8/11 for 101 yds, 0 TD
37% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 29 | 9 | 61 | 4:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | GB | GB 35 | 5 | 1 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 2 | 5 | 20 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 4 | GB | GB 30 | 5 | 2 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 20 | 6 | 16 | 3:23 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | GB 10 | 4 | 7 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 22 | 4 | 4 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 8 | GB | GB 30 | 7 | 17 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 9 | 14 | 84 | 6:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | GB | GB 22 | 5 | -14 | 1:15 | Punt | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 41 | 10 | 59 | 1:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | GB | GB 20 | 2 | 0 | 0:23 | End of half | |
| 13 | GB | GB 30 | 9 | 26 | 4:25 | Punt | |
| 14 | MIN | MIN 14 | 6 | 19 | 3:27 | Punt | |
| 15 | GB | GB 12 | 9 | 33 | 5:16 | Punt | |
| 16 | MIN | MIN 8 | 9 | 37 | 5:29 | Fumble | |
| 17 | GB | GB 25 | 4 | -6 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIN | MIN 18 | 10 | 63 | 5:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 19 | GB | GB 39 | 14 | 56 | 4:09 | Field goal +3 |
5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 6/11 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brooks | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Clayton Tune | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobie Keeney-James | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 20% | -0.1 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 30% | -0.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamon Johnson | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylin Simpson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barryn Sorrell | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Baldwin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 14/23 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Max Brosmer | 7/8 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 19 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -0.7 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10% | -0.1 |
| Drake Dabney | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20% | -0.8 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -1.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kitan Oladapo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shemar Bartholomew | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 | -4.5 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 37% | 4.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 10% | 3.5 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 7% | 2.3 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | 0.2 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | -0.8 |
| Ben Yurosek | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | -0.2 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Wilson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Ward | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 4 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Jackson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Redmond | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
