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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 30 at Houston Texans 38. Final.
Texans -9.5 no coverO 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Houston Texans 38, Colts 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:17, 4th and 7, on Ka'imi Fairbairn — 19.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:17 · 4th and 7
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Texans
(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Dome
Texans closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 38–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:17, Texans +19.0% win probability on one snap.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alec PierceColtsQ1 10:45(10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
Alijah HuzzieTexansQ4 12:35(12:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 36-A.Huzzie (72-T.Togiai) at IND 33. 36-A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (84-T.Warren).
16.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 15 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 13 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Swing +19.0 for TexansExpected points +0.54 for TexansThe model had Colts 12 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:17HOU +19% win prob(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
4th · 12:35IND +16% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 36-A.Huzzie (72-T.Togiai) at IND 33. 36-A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (84-T.Warren).
1st · 10:45HOU +15% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:50IND +11% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard sacked at IND 17 for -7 yards (55-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-D.Hunter), touched at IND 16, RECOVERED by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o at IND 2.
3rd · 13:41HOU +11% win prob(13:41) 15-R.Leonard pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce to HOU 1 for 53 yards (42-J.Ingram).
4th · 7:17HOU +10% win prob(7:17) 15-R.Leonard scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 34 for 9 yards (72-T.Togiai).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 43-yard field goal with 0:17 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:11Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+30–3
Texans ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.02Texans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Colts: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.01Texans: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Texans’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Texans 3.
NoteColts outgained Texans 354-339 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, −13.1 pts, is past their previous low of −8.1 pts in week 17 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 51.5%, is past their previous high of 46.5% in week 17 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans10.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.1 pts, 11.9 points below their season mean of -1.1 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ka'imi Fairbairn+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 0:17 · Texans · 4th & 7 at IND 25 · gained nothing · +0.54 EP · +25.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 92 yards from the IND 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2755%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0463%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2653%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1611%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Colts0Texans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Colts6Texans3
Colts7Texans3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 34
Colts7Texans6
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Colts 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Offense on the fieldOne end, one tackle, one free safety, one long snapper, two middle linebackers, one outside linebacker, one punter, one back, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldOne lineman, two linebackers and three backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Colts10Texans6
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Texans 32
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Colts10Texans12
Colts10Texans13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Colts 11
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays
Colts10Texans19
Colts10Texans20
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 38
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Colts 41
Colts16Texans20
Colts17Texans20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Texans 5
Colts17Texans23
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 11
3rd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Colts23Texans23
Colts24Texans23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 28
Colts24Texans26
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Colts 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Colts27Texans26
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Texans 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 44
4th quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 24
Colts27Texans29
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 25
Colts30Texans29
Field goal16 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Texans 4
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts30Texans32
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Colts 25
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts30Texans38
Touchdown3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -9.5
Closing total
37.5
Colts moneyline
+400
Texans moneyline
-535
Texans closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 68 — over by 30.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Colts 7 days · Texans 8 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs DeMeco Ryans
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:05
IND +10% win prob
(:05) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to IND 29 for 4 yards. Lateral to 11-M.Pittman to IND 20 for -9 yards. Lateral to 15-R.Leonard to IND 21 for 1 yard (92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (92-D.Horton), touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by HOU-72-T.Togiai at IND 17. 72-T.Togiai for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:52IND +9% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce (42-J.Ingram). PENALTY on IND-14-A.Pierce, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 6.
