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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

30

Houston TexansWinner

38

HOU -9.5 no coverO 37.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 38–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:17, HOU +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 0:17IND 30 — HOU 32HOU ball · 4th & 7HOU 71%

(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:17HOU +19% win prob(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  2. Q4 · 12:35IND +16% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 36-A.Huzzie (72-T.Togiai) at IND 33. 36-A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (84-T.Warren).
  3. Q1 · 10:45HOU +15% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 8:50IND +11% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard sacked at IND 17 for -7 yards (55-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-D.Hunter), touched at IND 16, RECOVERED by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o at IND 2.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:11HOU Field goal

    (12:11) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q1 · 10:45IND Touchdown

    (10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — HOU 3
  3. Q1 · 6:41HOU Field goal

    (6:41) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — HOU 6
  4. Q1 · 0:39IND Field goal

    (:39) 10-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 6
  5. Q2 · 9:40HOU Touchdown

    (9:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 13
  6. Q2 · 8:38HOU Touchdown

    (8:38) 72-T.Togiai reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 20
  7. Q2 · 1:29IND Touchdown

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — HOU 20
  8. Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 17 — HOU 23
  9. Q3 · 13:11IND Touchdown

    (13:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 24 — HOU 23
  10. Q3 · 6:58HOU Field goal

    (6:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 24 — HOU 26
  11. Q3 · 1:47IND Field goal

    (1:47) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 27 — HOU 26
  12. Q4 · 11:20HOU Field goal

    (11:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 27 — HOU 29
  13. Q4 · 2:42IND Field goal

    (2:42) 10-B.Grupe 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 30 — HOU 29
  14. Q4 · 0:17HOU Field goal

    (:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 30 — HOU 32
  15. Q4 · 0:05HOU Touchdown

    (:05) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to IND 29 for 4 yards. Lateral to 11-M.Pittman to IND 20 for -9 yards. Lateral to 15-R.Leonard to IND 21 for 1 yard (92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (92-D.Horton), touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by HOU-72-T.Togiai at IND 17. 72-T.Togiai for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 30 — HOU 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTexans
Offensive plays6463
Total yards354 (edge)339
Yards per play5.5 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play-0.07-0.02 (edge)
Success rate38%44% (edge)
Dropback rate59%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.04 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24-0.01 (edge)
Third downs8/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1819 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Colts outgained Texans 354–339 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Riley LeonardQB

21/34, 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.9 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

14/23, 169 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.1 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

British BrooksRB

13 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

10 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/7 for 132 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Xavier HutchinsonWR

5/9 for 84 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 309492:55Field goal +3
2INDIND 315691:29Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 398314:00Field goal +3
4INDIND 2412396:02Field goal +3
5HOUHOU 1813826:00Touchdown +7
6INDIND 293-130:56Fumble
7HOUIND 2220:06Touchdown +7
8INDIND 35531:27Punt
9HOUHOU 368233:06Punt
10INDIND 89622:34Touchdown +7
11HOUHOU 3010381:25Field goal +3
12INDIND 356651:55Touchdown +7
13HOUHOU 45531:42Punt
14INDIND 22461:04Punt
15HOUHOU 298473:26Field goal +3
16INDIND 3514595:11Field goal +3
17HOUHOU 317161:55Punt
18INDIND 85162:19Interception
19HOUIND 33481:13Field goal +3
20INDIND 3515568:36Field goal +3
21HOUHOU 358402:27Field goal +3
22INDIND 252-80:12Defensive touchdown

14 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 82 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Riley Leonard21/342702111.9
Rigoberto Sanchez1/1160003.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
DJ Giddens8303.80-0.3
Jonathan Taylor14261.90-4.3
Riley Leonard3217.013.7
Tyler Goodson133.00-0.3
Ameer Abdullah111.00-0.5
Josh Downs1-5-5.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce47132221%10.1
Josh Downs4461012%-2.8
Tyler Warren5826024%-5.1
Ameer Abdullah222406%2.9
Mo Alie-Cox3422012%2.8
Jonathan Taylor221306%1.0
Michael Pittman2411012%-1.6
Ashton Dulin02006%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin650.000
Adetomiwa Adebawore330.000
Nick Cross330.000
Germaine Pratt230.000
Camryn Bynum230.000
Rodney Thomas410.000
Samson Ebukam230.000
Jaylon Jones310.001
Neville Gallimore120.000
Mekhi Blackmon300.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud14/231691004.1
Davis Mills3/936000-6.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
British Brooks13634.80-0.1
Woody Marks10484.803.0
Davis Mills11212.000.6
C.J. Stroud252.510.8
Dare Ogunbowale133.00-0.1
Jawhar Jordan530.60-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Xavier Hutchinson5984032%2.5
Dalton Schultz4473014%5.9
Jayden Higgins2523118%-0.2
Jaylin Noel111304%0.6
Cade Stover12907%0.5
Dare Ogunbowale12607%-2.5
Woody Marks230011%-1.4
Christian Kirk12-307%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed150.000
Damone Clark240.000
Will Anderson Jr.420.000
Myles Bryant410.000
K'Von Wallace400.000
Tremon Smith220.000
Alijah Huzzie310.011
Derek Barnett220.000
Calen Bullock210.000
Kaevon Merriweather210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -9.5
Closing total
37.5
IND moneyline
+400
HOU moneyline
-535

Texans closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 68 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
IND 7 days · HOU 8 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.