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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 12 at Las Vegas Raiders 14. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders 14, Chiefs 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:13, 4th and 5, on Daniel Carlson — 51.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:13 · 4th and 5
Daniel Carlson
Raiders
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
U 36.5 ✓
Dome
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, Raiders +51.5% win probability on one snap.
51.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ4 4:377-H.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. 23-D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (40-E.Downs). FUMBLES (40-E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 21.
35.0pts
Marquise BrownChiefsQ4 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass deep left to 5-M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson; 27-T.McCollum) [51-M.Koonce].
24.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Raiders won this one — 4 of 16 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 17 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 28% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing +51.5 for RaidersExpected points +1.82 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:13LV +51% win prob(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 4:37KC +35% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. 23-D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (40-E.Downs). FUMBLES (40-E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 21.
4th · 2:23LV +24% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass deep left to 5-M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson; 27-T.McCollum) [51-M.Koonce].
4th · 0:04KC +18% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 37 for 2 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), recovered by KC-9-J.Smith-Schuster at KC 37. 9-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 32 for -5 yards. Lateral to 17-S.Buechele to KC 31 for -1 yards. Lateral to 76-K.Suamataia pushed ob at KC 45 for 14 yards (26-D.Porter).
2nd · 3:02KC +18% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 19-C.Oladokun left tackle to KC 18 for no gain (9-T.Wilson). FUMBLES (9-T.Wilson), touched at KC 19, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at KC 18.
4th · 3:17KC +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 60-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:03Harrison Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+33–0
2nd7:24Daniel Carlson·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–3
2nd1:56Daniel Carlson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–6
3rd4:16Harrison Butker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+36–6
4th13:21Daniel Carlson·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–9
4th4:42Tyree Wilson·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+26–11
4th3:37Harrison Butker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+39–11
4th1:05Harrison Butker·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+312–11
4th0:13Daniel Carlson·60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+312–14
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRaiders
Chiefs1–7Raiders
168Total yards204
2.7Yards per play3.3
24%Success rate28%
18%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays4
9First downs10
8Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.47Chiefs: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.49Raiders: −0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.59Chiefs: −0.59 expected points added per play
−0.48Raiders: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Chiefs: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.50Raiders: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Raiders 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 32.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.8% in week 12.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
KC's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 12 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 18.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders32.5%
off script — got home · +18.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.45× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.5%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.4 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
60Hunter NourzadC · Every snap100%64 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Esa PoleT · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Kingsley SuamataiaG · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Chukwuebuka GodrickT · Full-time98%63 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Full-time81%52 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time80%51 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
11Jalen RoyalsWR · Heavy rotation67%43 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation56%36 snaps
19Chris OladokunQB · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
24Brashard SmithRB · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
17Shane BuecheleQB · Rotational45%29 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Rotational39%25 snaps
12Jared WileyTE · Situational19%12 snaps
25Dameon PierceRB · Situational8%5 snaps
89Jason BrownleeWR · Situational8%5 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Situational5%3 snaps
77Jaylon MooreT · Situational3%2 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Situational3%2 snaps
82Jimmy HolidayWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Melvin Smith Jr.CBGeorge KarlaftisDEMike PennelDTTrey SmithGTyreke SmithOLBIsiah PachecoRBXavier WorthyWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Daniel Carlson+50% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:13 · Raiders · 4th & 5 at KC 42 · gained nothing · +1.82 EP · +50.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 51 yards from the KC 26 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.32
Success rate
34%
Yards
372
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.5474%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4156%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1257%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4150%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.8618%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.8750%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 44
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Raiders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Raiders 8
Chiefs3Raiders0
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Raiders 18
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 21
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 26
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 33
Chiefs3Raiders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Chiefs 14
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 39
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 12 to the Raiders 39
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 18
Chiefs3Raiders6
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended12 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Raiders 48
3rd quarter28 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Chiefs 27
Chiefs6Raiders6
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Raiders 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 49
4th quarter60 plays
Chiefs6Raiders9
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 35
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 29
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chiefs6Raiders11
Drive ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 10
Fumble lost1 play
Chiefs9Raiders11
Field goal5 plays
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chiefs12Raiders11
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Raiders 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chiefs12Raiders14
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Chiefs 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
