For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q4 0:13, 4th and 5, on Daniel Carlson — 51.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, Raiders +51.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:13 · 4th and 5
Daniel Carlson
Raiders
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
51.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Raiders won this one — 4 of 16 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 17 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 28% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 60-yard field goal with 0:13 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Daniel Carlson60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+312–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Raiders 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's sack or hit rate, 32.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
KC's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 12 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 18.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.1 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-4.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.7 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 62 snaps
Raiders-12.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.8 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Chiefs56.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 44 early downs
Raiders41.9%leaned — ran early · −16.0 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 48%
Tendencies room →Chiefs20.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Raiders29.0%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs33.3%leaned — took the kick · −22.7 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders28.6%inside their normal wobble · −26.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Chiefs32.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders20.0%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs16.1%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders32.5%off script — got home · +18.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.45× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
LV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.5%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.4 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
10/22, 102 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -23.6% completion over expected
Passing · KC
7/14, 88 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -16.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
JuJu Smith-Schuster banked 0.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.4 | −7.8 | 97% | 97% | 19% | 0% | 26 car, 87 yd · 3/5, 7 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +0.6 | 81% | 88% | 20% | 61% | 3/6, 64 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −3.6 | 53% | 53% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 56 yd · 2/4, 2 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | +0.5 | 95% | 100% | 19% | 17% | 3/5, 47 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −0.7 | 39% | 48% | 13% | 0% | 5 car, 14 yd · 3/4, 21 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −1.0 | 56% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 5.4 | −5.7 | 98% | 100% | 23% | 46% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/6, 30 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 4.8 | −3.2 | 82% | — | 0% | — | 10/22, 102 yd · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 4.2 | −4.3 | 80% | 85% | 20% | 22% | 3/6, 12 yd |
| Shane BuecheleQB | 3.9 | −0.7 | 45% | — | 0% | — | 7/14, 88 yd · 1 car, 4 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.6 | 78% | 80% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Jalen RoyalsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −3.1 | 67% | 75% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 4 yd |
| Shedrick JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 2.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 1.5 | −4.8 | 52% | 71% | 19% | 11% | 1/5, 5 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 1.0 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jared WileyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 58% | 52% | 8% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 13% | 19% | 4% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny PickettQB | -1.0 | −2.9 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 1/4, 3 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Chris OladokunQB · Starter QB | -1.7 | −7.4 | 55% | — | 0% | — | 11/17, 58 yd · 1 car, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:13 · Raiders · 4th & 5 at KC 42 · gained nothing · +1.82 EP · +50.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 51 yards from the KC 26 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs3
Raiders0How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Chiefs3Raiders3How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Chiefs3Raiders6Chiefs6Raiders6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs6Raiders9How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Chiefs6Raiders11Chiefs9Raiders11How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Chiefs12Raiders11How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs12Raiders14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Buechele | 7/14 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −6.8 |
| Chris Oladokun | 11/17 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −15.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brashard Smith | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 20% | −0.2 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper McDonald |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 10/22 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −5.9 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1/4 | 3 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_KC_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 26 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Shane Buechele | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Chris Oladokun | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| +0.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −2.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 20% | −0.2 |
| Jalen Royals | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ethan Downs | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| −10.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 26 | 87 | 3.3 | 0 | −11.9 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 19% | −0.2 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 23% | +0.6 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +2.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19% | −2.5 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19% | −4.6 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −6.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Eichenberg | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Stokes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Snowden | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
