2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

KC -3.5 upsetU 36.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, LV +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:13KC 12 — LV 14LV ball · 4th & 5KC 68%

(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:13LV +51% win prob(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 4:37KC +35% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. 23-D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (40-E.Downs). FUMBLES (40-E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 21.
Q4 · 2:23LV +24% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass deep left to 5-M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson; 27-T.McCollum) [51-M.Koonce].
Q4 · 0:04KC +18% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 37 for 2 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), recovered by KC-9-J.Smith-Schuster at KC 37. 9-J.Smith-Schuster to KC 32 for -5 yards. Lateral to 17-S.Buechele to KC 31 for -1 yards. Lateral to 76-K.Suamataia pushed ob at KC 45 for 14 yards (26-D.Porter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:03KC Field goal
(5:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LV 0
Q2 · 7:24LV Field goal
(7:24) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LV 3
Q2 · 1:56LV Field goal
(1:56) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LV 6
Q3 · 4:16KC Field goal
(4:16) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 6 — LV 6
Q4 · 13:21LV Field goal
(13:21) 8-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: KC 6 — LV 9
Q4 · 4:42LV Safety
(4:42) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele sacked in End Zone for -10 yards, SAFETY (9-T.Wilson).
Score after this play: KC 6 — LV 11
Q4 · 3:37KC Field goal
(3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 9 — LV 11
Q4 · 1:05KC Field goal
(1:05) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 12 — LV 11
Q4 · 0:13LV Field goal
(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: KC 12 — LV 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Raiders
Offensive plays	62	61
Total yards	168	204 (edge)
Yards per play	2.7	3.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.47 (edge)	-0.49
Success rate	24%	28% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	-0.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25 (edge)	-0.50
Third downs	3/17	4/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	10 (edge)
Sacks taken	8	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

10/22, 102 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -23.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Shane BuecheleQB

7/14, 88 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -16.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

26 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

-11.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Brashard SmithRB

12 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Marquise BrownWR

3/6 for 64 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Michael MayerTE

3/5 for 47 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 35	5	-4	2:08	Punt
2	LV	LV 42	2	2	0:38	Interception
3	KC	LV 46	4	4	1:37	Punt
4	LV	LV 4	4	-2	2:06	Punt
5	KC	KC 46	8	36	3:33	Field goal +3
6	LV	LV 32	8	12	2:54	Punt
7	KC	KC 10	7	21	3:34	Punt
8	LV	LV 27	4	9	0:58	Turnover on downs
9	KC	LV 36	2	-16	0:55	Fumble
10	LV	KC 44	8	30	4:17	Field goal +3
11	KC	KC 35	5	4	1:01	Punt
12	LV	LV 12	6	22	2:04	Punt
13	KC	KC 9	3	9	1:18	Fumble
14	LV	KC 18	4	8	1:05	Field goal +3
15	KC	KC 35	7	18	1:52	End of half
16	LV	LV 41	6	36	3:16	Turnover on downs
17	KC	KC 28	12	50	7:33	Field goal +3
18	LV	LV 34	11	34	5:55	Field goal +3
19	KC	KC 20	5	0	0:55	Punt
20	LV	LV 21	4	-1	0:57	Punt
21	KC	KC 27	4	2	1:04	Punt
22	LV	LV 13	8	33	4:24	Punt
23	KC	KC 6	3	-6	1:19	Safety
24	LV	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
25	KC	LV 21	4	-3	0:57	Field goal +3
26	LV	LV 26	5	-5	1:10	Punt
27	KC	KC 26	5	51	1:22	Field goal +3
28	LV	LV 32	6	26	0:53	Field goal +3
29	KC	KC 35	3	2	0:08	End of game

8 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 51 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Shane Buechele	7/14	88	0	0	5	-6.8
Chris Oladokun	11/17	58	0	0	3	-15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brashard Smith	12	56	4.7	0.3
Kareem Hunt	5	14	2.8	0.4
Dameon Pierce	4	10	2.5	-1.6
Shane Buechele	1	4	4.0	-0.8
Chris Oladokun	1	0	0.0	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	3	6	64	20%	-0.2
Noah Gray	3	5	30	17%	0.5
Kareem Hunt	3	4	21	13%	-2.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	2	13	7%	0.3
Travis Kelce	3	6	12	20%	-0.2
Jalen Royals	2	3	4	10%	-1.6
Brashard Smith	2	4	2	13%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	4	5	0.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	4	2	0.0	0	0
Nohl Williams	5	1	1.0	0	2
Cooper McDonald	2	4	0.0	0	0
Ethan Downs	1	4	0.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	4	0	0.0	0	0
Chamarri Conner	2	2	0.0	1	1
Drue Tranquill	2	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jaden Hicks	1	2	0.0	0	1

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aidan O'Connell	10/22	102	0	0	1	-5.9
Kenny Pickett	1/4	3	0	1	2	-10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	26	87	3.3	-11.9
Kenny Pickett	1	9	9.0	1.6
Aidan O'Connell	1	7	7.0	0.2
Zamir White	1	5	5.0	0.5
Tre Tucker	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Shedrick Jackson	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Isaiah Pola-Mao	1	3	3.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Mayer	3	5	47	19%	-0.2
Tre Tucker	2	6	30	23%	0.6
Shedrick Jackson	1	1	11	4%	2.2
Ashton Jeanty	3	5	7	19%	-2.5
Zamir White	1	1	5	4%	0.0
Tyler Lockett	1	5	5	19%	-4.6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	0	1	0	4%	-0.6
Jack Bech	0	2	0	8%	-6.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyree Wilson	5	1	2.0	0
Tommy Eichenberg	4	2	0.0	1
Devin White	3	3	1.5	0
Darnay Holmes	3	1	0.0	0
Eric Stokes	4	0	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	1	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	4	0	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	2	1	0.0	1
Malcolm Koonce	2	1	0.5	0
Charles Snowden	3	0	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 36.5
KC moneyline: -225
LV moneyline: +185

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 26 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: KC 10 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.