2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -14.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓Broncos closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Denver Broncos 19–3. Biggest swing: Q1 14:49, DEN +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:49LAC 0 — DEN 0LAC ball · 2nd & 10DEN 94%

(14:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:49DEN +4% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q1 · 3:50LAC +4% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:58DEN +4% win prob(13:58) 38-J.McLaughlin left guard to DEN 19 for 6 yards (91-D.Hand).
Q1 · 13:18LAC +3% win prob(13:18) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 20 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:09DEN Field goal
(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: LAC 0 — DEN 3
Q1 · 3:50DEN Touchdown
(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 0 — DEN 10
Q2 · 0:06LAC Field goal
(:06) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 10
Q3 · 10:10DEN Field goal
(10:10) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 13
Q4 · 11:49DEN Field goal
(11:49) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 16
Q4 · 2:26DEN Field goal
(2:26) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Broncos
Offensive plays	66	56
Total yards	217	242 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	4.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	-0.18 (edge)
Success rate	29%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.52	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	7/20 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	13	13
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

14/23, 141 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Trey LanceQB

20/44, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-31.5 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Trey LanceQB

9 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

8 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Evan EngramTE

3/4 for 45 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/13 for 36 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 28	5	6	1:02	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 13	15	81	8:52	Field goal +3
3	LAC	LAC 35	4	5	1:27	Defensive touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 30	6	12	1:44	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 20	4	5	1:25	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 21	4	9	1:19	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 16	7	15	3:46	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 27	7	19	3:39	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 14	7	18	3:50	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 37	12	61	2:53	Field goal +3
11	DEN	DEN 35	2	0	0:03	End of half
12	DEN	DEN 35	5	6	0:52	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 12	4	2	0:57	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 40	7	52	3:04	Field goal +3
15	LAC	LAC 31	8	4	4:01	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 45	4	7	2:35	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 20	7	13	2:54	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 19	4	8	2:08	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 24	1	-4	0:08	Fumble
20	DEN	LAC 20	4	-2	1:36	Field goal +3
21	LAC	LAC 35	8	31	3:48	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	DEN 44	10	52	5:34	Field goal +3
23	LAC	LAC 35	17	59	2:07	Fumble
24	DEN	DEN 11	1	0	0:16	End of game

5 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 81 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trey Lance	20/44	136	0	1	4	-31.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trey Lance	9	69	7.7	3.2
Jaret Patterson	8	29	3.6	-1.5
Kimani Vidal	3	12	4.0	0.1
Hassan Haskins	1	3	3.0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	13	36	34%	-5.5
Tre Harris	2	6	28	16%	1.0
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	2	5	24	13%	-7.8
Oronde Gadsden II	2	2	23	5%	2.4
Jaret Patterson	3	4	8	11%	-1.6
Derius Davis	1	1	7	3%	-0.3
Will Dissly	1	5	6	13%	-2.7
Tyler Conklin	1	1	6	3%	0.1
Kimani Vidal	1	1	-2	3%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tony Jefferson	6	2	0.0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips	3	4	1.0	0
Marlowe Wax	6	1	0.0	0
Otito Ogbonnia	3	2	0.5	0
Marcus Maye	1	4	0.0	0
Tarheeb Still	3	2	0.0	0
Cam Hart	3	1	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	1	3	0.5	0
Da'Shawn Hand	3	0	0.0	1
Benjamin St-Juste	1	2	0.0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	14/23	141	0	0	4	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bo Nix	8	49	6.1	3.5
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	41	6.8	1.7
RJ Harvey	15	28	1.9	-7.2
Tyler Badie	2	-2	-1.0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	3	4	45	17%	0.7
Pat Bryant	4	5	31	22%	1.6
Tyler Badie	2	2	28	9%	4.6
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	2	17	9%	0.3
Marvin Mims Jr.	2	3	10	13%	0.0
RJ Harvey	1	4	5	17%	-3.9
Courtland Sutton	1	2	5	9%	-2.6
Troy Franklin	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Strnad	3	5	1.0	0	1
Alex Singleton	3	4	0.0	0	1
Ja'Quan McMillian	4	2	0.0	1	2
Riley Moss	3	3	0.0	0	2
Eyioma Uwazurike	1	3	1.0	0	0
Jahdae Barron	3	1	0.0	0	1
Devon Key	4	0	0.0	0	0
Pat Surtain II	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kris Abrams-Draine	3	0	0.0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -14.5
Closing total: 37.5
LAC moneyline: +900
DEN moneyline: -1600

Broncos closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 22 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LAC 8 days · DEN 10 days
Coaches: Jim Harbaugh vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.