For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles3
BY 16final margin
BroncosDenver19
Los Angeles Chargers 3 at Denver Broncos 19. Final.
Broncos -14.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Denver Broncos 19, Chargers 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:49, 2nd and 10, on Keenan Allen — 4.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:49 · 2nd and 10
Keenan Allen
Chargers
(14:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Broncos closed -14.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Denver Broncos 19–3. Biggest swing: Q1 14:49, Chargers +4.4% win probability on one snap.
4.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaleel McLaughlinBroncosQ1 13:58(13:58) 38-J.McLaughlin left guard to DEN 19 for 6 yards (91-D.Hand).
4.1pts
Ja'Quan McMillianBroncosQ1 3:50(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.07 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.52 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.18 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(14:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Swing −4.4 for BroncosExpected points +0.46 for BroncosThe model had Chargers 35 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:49DEN +4% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 34 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).
1st · 3:50LAC +4% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:58DEN +4% win prob(13:58) 38-J.McLaughlin left guard to DEN 19 for 6 yards (91-D.Hand).
1st · 13:18LAC +3% win prob(13:18) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 20 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips).
4th · 13:29LAC +3% win prob(13:29) 5-T.Lance sacked at LAC 16 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-95-S.Jones at LAC 20.
1st · 11:07DEN +3% win prob(11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (20-C.Hart).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 24-yard field goal with 5:09 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:09Wil Lutz·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+30–3
2nd0:06Cameron Dicker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–10
3rd10:10Wil Lutz·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–13
4th11:49Wil Lutz·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–16
4th2:26Wil Lutz·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–19
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers1–4Broncos
217Total yards242
3.3Yards per play4.3
29%Success rate36%
35%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays5
13First downs13
4Sacks taken4
3Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 4–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Chargers: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.18Broncos: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.52Chargers: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.07Broncos: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.35Broncos: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 66 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Broncos’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Broncos 4.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 18 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.2 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 18.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 17.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Broncos14.0%
inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.5%, 23.0 points above their season mean of 25.5% and 1.5 times their own 15.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lance pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:50 · Chargers · 3rd & 5 at LAC 40 · gained nothing · -7.30 EP · −14.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 81 yards from the DEN 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
35%
Yards
457
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3064%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.4877%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.4829%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2494%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2614%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.380%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 34
Chargers0Broncos3
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Chargers 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers0Broncos9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 40
Chargers0Broncos10
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 25
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 31
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 48
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 31
Chargers3Broncos10
Field goal17 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Broncos 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 14
Chargers3Broncos13
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Chargers 8
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Chargers 48
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 33
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 28
Fumble lost1 play
Chargers3Broncos16
Field goal5 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Broncos 42
Chargers3Broncos19
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Chargers 4
The period ended20 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Broncos 6
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
