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Miami Dolphins 10 at New England Patriots 38. Final.
Patriots -14 ✓O 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
New England Patriots 38, Dolphins 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 11:44, 1st and 10, on Jaylinn Hawkins — 8.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:44 · 1st and 10
Jaylinn Hawkins
Patriots
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
29°F
Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 28.
New England Patriots 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:44, Patriots +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsQ1 14:55(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for 9 yards (20-J.Brooks; 94-J.Phillips).
5.3pts
Greg DulcichDolphinsQ3 13:27(13:27) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich to NE 25 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
5.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 63% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins147 of 156 plays carry both curves
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Swing +8.8 for PatriotsExpected points +5.95 for PatriotsThe model had Dolphins 20 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:44MIA +9% win prob(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
3rd · 13:27NE +5% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich to NE 25 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
1st · 14:55NE +5% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for 9 yards (20-J.Brooks; 94-J.Phillips).
2nd · 1:42MIA +5% win prob(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).
2nd · 4:39MIA +5% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left end to NE 47 for 2 yards (0-C.Gonzalez, 51-J.Gibbens). FUMBLES (51-J.Gibbens), touched at NE 45, RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 45. 91-E.Ponder to MIA 37 for 18 yards (85-G.Dulcich).
1st · 5:57MIA +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
TreVeyon Henderson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 13:18 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:18TreVeyon Henderson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Dolphins: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.36Patriots: +0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Dolphins: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.45Patriots: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Dolphins: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.27Patriots: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 22.7% in week 16 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 17.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Patriots30.0%
off script — got home · +14.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+2.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.4 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%56 snaps
79Larry BoromT · Every snap100%56 snaps
72Jonah SavaiinaeaG · Every snap100%56 snaps
52Patrick PaulT · Every snap100%56 snaps
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%56 snaps
14Quinn EwersQB · Full-time95%53 snaps
6Malik WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
19Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Heavy rotation64%36 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Q.Ewers pass−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q3 11:44 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NE 13 · gained nothing · -5.95 EP · −15.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 92 yards from the NE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
53%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5660%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.4375%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.138%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0317%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.3775%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.8150%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0967%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1740%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Dolphins0Patriots6
Dolphins0Patriots7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 5
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Patriots 8
Dolphins0Patriots13
Dolphins0Patriots14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Dolphins 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Patriots 46
2nd quarter50 plays
Dolphins6Patriots14
Dolphins7Patriots14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 1
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 20
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 40
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 17
Dolphins10Patriots14
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 34
Dolphins10Patriots17
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Dolphins 41
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Patriots 13
Dolphins10Patriots23
Dolphins10Patriots24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Dolphins 15
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins10Patriots30
Dolphins10Patriots31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Dolphins 35
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 28
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Dolphins10Patriots37
Dolphins10Patriots38
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 2
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 36
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 35
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Dolphins 24
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 40
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Dolphins 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
