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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q3 11:44, 1st and 10, on Jaylinn Hawkins — 8.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:44, Patriots +8.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:44 · 1st and 10
Jaylinn Hawkins
Patriots
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 63% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
TreVeyon Henderson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 13:18 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Patriots 6.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 22.7% in week 16 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 54 snaps
Patriots0.8 ptsright on their number · −1.3 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins47.5%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 40 early downs
Patriots44.2%leaned — ran early · −10.0 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Dolphins50.0%leaned — faked the run · +20.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Patriots28.6%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 60%
Tendencies room →Dolphins32.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Patriots30.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins10.7%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Patriots30.0%off script — got home · +14.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+2.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.4 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
14/18, 191 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.7 expected points added · +24.4% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
16/23, 137 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-8.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rhamondre Stevenson banked 25.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Receiving Back | 35.3 | +25.3 | 47% | 64% | 10% | 3% | 7 car, 131 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 17.3 | +5.9 | 41% | 36% | 0% | — | 13 car, 53 yd, 2 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +2.0 | 76% | — | 0% | — | 14/18, 191 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 41 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +3.2 | 70% | 70% | 17% | 3% | 2 car, 22 yd · 3/4, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.6 | +2.4 | 58% | 71% | 25% | 13% | 5/5, 56 yd |
| Quinn EwersQB · Starter QB | 8.4 | −2.2 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 137 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Theo Wease Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −1.4 | 34% | 47% | 21% | 35% | 3/5, 44 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +2.8 | 46% | 64% | 15% | 11% | 3/3, 43 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.2 | 52% | 73% | 17% | 9% | 3/4, 31 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.3 | 25% | 43% | 15% | 24% | 2/3, 29 yd |
| Tahj WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.7 | 38% | 57% | 13% | 40% | 2/3, 26 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +2.5 | 44% | 36% | 5% | 9% | 1/1, 35 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 4.4 | −2.8 | 58% | 75% | 20% | 37% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB · Committee Back | 4.0 | −9.3 | 46% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 23 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB · Committee Back | 2.1 | −5.0 | 36% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 61% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 41% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.3 | −1.1 | 55% | 57% | 8% | 11% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 1.3 | −1.1 | 15% | 7% | 0% | — | 5 car, 13 yd |
| Jack WestoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.5 | 36% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB | 0.9 | −1.5 | 24% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 23 yd · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −0.4 | 46% | 32% | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB | 0.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.9 | 64% | 53% | 8% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q3 11:44 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NE 13 · gained nothing · -5.95 EP · −15.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 92 yards from the NE 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Patriots6Dolphins0Patriots7Dolphins0Patriots13Dolphins0Patriots14Dolphins6Patriots14Dolphins7Patriots14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Dolphins10Patriots14Dolphins10Patriots17How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins10Patriots23Dolphins10Patriots24Dolphins10Patriots30Dolphins10Patriots31Dolphins10Patriots37Dolphins10Patriots38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 16/23 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −8.6 |
| Zach Wilson | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 | −8.3 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Wease Jr. | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 21% | −1.2 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/18 | 191 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 23 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_MIA_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| +3.0 |
| Tahj Washington | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 17% | −1.5 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −4.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Woodard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeek Biggers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 131 | 18.7 | 2 | +10.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 2 | −1.4 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 | +4.7 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 25% | +1.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 15% | +2.4 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 5% | +2.1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 15% | +1.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 20% | −0.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 10% | +3.1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Jack Westover | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Craig Woodson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
