2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Gillette Stadium

Miami Dolphins

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -14 ✓O 44.5 ✓29°FPatriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 28.

New England Patriots 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:44, MIA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:44MIA 10 — NE 17MIA ball · 1st & 10NE 84%

(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:44MIA +9% win prob(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q3 · 13:27NE +5% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich to NE 25 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q1 · 14:55NE +5% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for 9 yards (20-J.Brooks; 94-J.Phillips).
Q2 · 1:42MIA +5% win prob(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:18NE Touchdown
(13:18) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NE 7
Q1 · 0:57NE Touchdown
(:57) (Shotgun) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 38-R.Stevenson. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NE 14
Q2 · 10:18MIA Touchdown
(10:18) 14-Q.Ewers pass short left to 6-M.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — NE 14
Q2 · 0:32MIA Field goal
(:32) 47-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 14
Q2 · 0:03NE Field goal
(:03) 36-A.Borregales 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 17
Q3 · 7:34NE Touchdown
(7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 24
Q3 · 2:25NE Touchdown
(2:25) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 31
Q4 · 12:44NE Touchdown
(12:44) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	54	54
Total yards	180	459 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	8.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	0.36 (edge)
Success rate	43%	63% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

14/18, 191 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +24.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Quinn EwersQB

16/23, 137 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

7 att, 131 yds, 2 TD

10.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

13 att, 53 yds, 2 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

5/5 for 56 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Theo Wease Jr.WR

3/5 for 44 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	5	70	1:46	Touchdown +7
2	MIA	MIA 35	13	57	7:24	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 8	10	84	4:55	Touchdown +7
4	MIA	MIA 35	12	65	5:41	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 35	5	0	0:34	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 11	4	8	2:07	Punt
7	NE	NE 31	4	14	2:31	Turnover on downs
8	MIA	NE 39	1	2	0:35	Fumble
9	NE	MIA 37	6	32	2:56	Missed field goal
10	MIA	NE 40	4	6	1:03	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 32	5	27	0:28	Field goal +3
12	MIA	MIA 35	7	30	3:22	Interception
13	NE	NE 20	8	80	4:08	Touchdown +7
14	MIA	MIA 30	8	6	3:06	Punt
15	NE	NE 37	5	63	2:06	Touchdown +7
16	MIA	MIA 26	5	-1	1:39	Punt
17	NE	NE 49	6	51	3:00	Touchdown +7
18	MIA	MIA 35	5	-9	1:38	Punt
19	NE	NE 32	4	3	1:35	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 5	5	15	1:39	Punt
21	NE	NE 31	4	9	2:02	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 17	4	1	0:57	Punt
23	NE	NE 36	7	26	4:48	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Quinn Ewers	16/23	137	1	1	4	-8.6
Zach Wilson	0/2	0	0	0	0	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Wright	13	23	1.8	-8.3
Malik Washington	2	22	11.0	1.6
Quinn Ewers	1	9	9.0	0.9
Ollie Gordon II	9	9	1.0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Theo Wease Jr.	3	5	44	0	21%	-1.2
Greg Dulcich	3	4	31	0	17%	3.0
Tahj Washington	2	3	26	0	13%	0.8
Jaylen Wright	2	2	17	0	8%	1.2
Julian Hill	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
Malik Washington	3	4	6	1	17%	-1.5
Alec Ingold	1	2	3	0	8%	-0.9
Ollie Gordon II	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.6
Cedrick Wilson Jr.	0	2	0	0	8%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jordyn Brooks	4	5	0
Dante Trader Jr.	3	4	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	3	2	0
Jack Jones	2	2	0
Ashtyn Davis	2	2	0
Rasul Douglas	2	1	1
Zach Sieler	2	1	0
Zeek Biggers	1	1	0
Willie Gay Jr.	1	1	0
Jackson Woodard	1	1	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	14/18	191	1	0	0	8.7
Joshua Dobbs	3/4	23	0	0	0	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	7	131	18.7	2	10.2
TreVeyon Henderson	13	53	4.1	2	-1.4
Drake Maye	5	41	8.2	0	4.7
D'Ernest Johnson	5	13	2.6	0	-1.9
Kyle Williams	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Joshua Dobbs	3	0	0.0	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	5	5	56	0	25%	1.4
Stefon Diggs	3	3	43	0	15%	2.4
Efton Chism III	1	1	35	0	5%	2.1
DeMario Douglas	2	3	29	0	15%	1.2
Kayshon Boutte	2	4	24	0	20%	-0.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	2	22	1	10%	3.1
Austin Hooper	1	1	5	0	5%	0.0
Jack Westover	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jahlani Tavai	3	5	0.0	0
Christian Elliss	3	5	0.0	0
Jack Gibbens	2	3	0.0	2
Craig Woodson	2	2	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	3	1	0.0	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	1	2	1.0	0
Carlton Davis III	3	0	0.0	1
Christian Barmore	3	0	1.0	0
Christian Gonzalez	2	1	0.0	0
Milton Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -14
Closing total: 44.5
MIA moneyline: +650
NE moneyline: -1000

Patriots closed -14 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 29°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.