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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q4 3:24, 3rd and 7, on Dee Alford — 21.4 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:24, Falcons +21.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:24 · 3rd and 7
Dee Alford
Falcons
(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Falcons at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Drake London's 15-yard touchdown catch with 3:09 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Drake London15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Falcons’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Falcons 4.
Saints outgained Falcons 340-210 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 27.5% in week 17 against 55.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −21.2 pts in week 17 against −4.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-4.9 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 65 snaps
Falcons-4.8 ptsright on their number · +1.5 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints58.7%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 46 early downs
Falcons55.8%right on their number · +5.3 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Saints21.4%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons22.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Saints60.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.2 vs their 48.8%, and they swing ±21.6 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons33.3%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Saints13.9%leaned — sat back · −18.7 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Falcons21.4%leaned — sat back · −16.3 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 29%
Tendencies room →Saints22.2%leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Falcons9.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 1.5 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
23/35, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
18/32, 180 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dante Pettis banked 4.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/35, 259 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.8 | +1.5 | 94% | 97% | 27% | 50% | 4/8, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Audric EstiméRB · Committee Back | 15.6 | −8.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | −2.6 | 92% | 92% | 30% | 17% | 6/9, 58 yd |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +4.1 | 76% | 79% | 15% | 5% | 5/5, 60 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.2 | 53% | 52% | 12% | 28% | 2/4, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 9.2 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 180 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 7.7 | −6.3 | 97% | 98% | 26% | 23% | 4/9, 37 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.3 | −5.7 | 84% | 86% | 10% | 0% | 15 car, 33 yd · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −1.6 | 75% | 93% | 15% | 28% | 3/5, 61 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 6.2 | +2.0 | 34% | — | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 32 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −8.0 | 83% | 92% | 23% | 39% | 3/7, 20 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 2.9 | −3.0 | 37% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 7 car, 16 yd · 1/2, 3 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 71% | 76% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −3.3 | 15% | 19% | 9% | 11% | 1/3, 3 yd |
| Evan HullRB | 1.1 | +0.2 | 12% | 12% | 0% | — | 2 car, 11 yd |
| Dylan DrummondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nyheim HinesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
Q4 3:24 · Saints · 3rd & 7 at ATL 20 · gained nothing · -7.50 EP · −24.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 70 yards from the NO 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Saints0
Falcons6Saints0Falcons7Saints0Falcons10Saints6Falcons10Saints7Falcons10Saints7Falcons13How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Saints10Falcons13Saints10Falcons16How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Saints10Falcons19Saints16Falcons19Saints17Falcons19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Evan Hull |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_NO_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 36 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 11 |
| 5.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| +2.4 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 15% | +3.0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 26% | −2.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Ronnie Bell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 12% | +1.2 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9% | −8.7 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Danny Stutsman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 | 27% | +4.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 30% | −0.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 23% | −0.4 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Alford | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Xavier Watts | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
