2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New Orleans Saints
17
Atlanta FalconsWinner
19
Atlanta Falcons 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:24, NO +21% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 3:24NO +21% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
- Q1 · 8:10NO +14% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 96-C.Granderson at NO 14. 96-C.Granderson to NO 14 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
- Q1 · 3:31NO +11% win prob(3:31) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Robinson, Center-49-Z.Wood, RECOVERED by ATL-84-F.Franks at NO 8. 84-F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill).
- Q1 · 12:50NO +11% win prob(12:50) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 38 for 19 yards (24-A.Terrell). FUMBLES (24-A.Terrell), RECOVERED by ATL-31-X.Watts at NO 44. 31-X.Watts to NO 39 for 5 yards (7-T.Hill).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 3:09ATL Touchdown
(3:09) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — ATL 7 - Q2 · 10:23ATL Field goal
(10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: NO 0 — ATL 10 - Q2 · 4:38NO Touchdown
(4:38) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 6-T.Shough scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 10 - Q3 · 8:55ATL Field goal
(8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 13 - Q3 · 2:19NO Field goal
(2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 13 - Q4 · 10:47ATL Field goal
(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 16 - Q4 · 2:57ATL Field goal
(2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: NO 10 — ATL 19 - Q4 · 1:16NO Touchdown
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 85-R.Bell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — ATL 19
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 65 | 58 |
| Total yards | 340 (edge) | 210 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 (edge) | 3.6 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 (edge) | -0.25 |
| Success rate | 37% (edge) | 33% |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 62% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.08 (edge) | -0.39 |
| Third downs | 5/16 (edge) | 4/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Saints outgained Falcons 340–210 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NO
23/35, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
18/32, 180 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | -2 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | NO 19 | 1 | 19 | 0:11 | Fumble | |
| 3 | ATL | NO 39 | 8 | 27 | 4:33 | Interception | |
| 4 | NO | NO 14 | 4 | 9 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 27 | 5 | 5 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 6 | NO | NO 11 | 4 | 2 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | NO 5 | 3 | 15 | 0:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | NO | NO 26 | 8 | 41 | 3:49 | Missed field goal | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 47 | 8 | 31 | 3:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | NO | NO 35 | 12 | 63 | 5:48 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 32 | 5 | 4 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 12 | NO | NO 20 | 7 | 17 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 13 | ATL | ATL 18 | 7 | 33 | 0:41 | End of half | |
| 14 | NO | NO 40 | 8 | -2 | 3:57 | Punt | |
| 15 | ATL | ATL 26 | 6 | 41 | 2:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | NO | NO 33 | 15 | 66 | 6:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | ATL | ATL 36 | 14 | 45 | 6:32 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 19 | ATL | ATL 24 | 6 | 4 | 3:17 | Punt | |
| 20 | NO | NO 25 | 7 | 55 | 3:09 | Interception | |
| 21 | ATL | NO 27 | 4 | 7 | 0:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 22 | NO | NO 35 | 9 | 65 | 1:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 23 | ATL | NO 43 | 3 | 0 | 1:11 | End of game |
8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 66 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
Box score
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Evan Hull | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 15% | 1.3 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 15% | 2.4 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 3.0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 26% | -2.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 9% | 1.7 |
| Ronnie Bell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 12% | 1.2 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9% | -8.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Danny Stutsman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Atlanta Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 | -5.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 | 27% | 4.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 30% | -0.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 23% | -0.4 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | -0.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | -0.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Alford | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Xavier Watts | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kentavius Street | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pearce Jr. | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ATL -4.5
- Closing total
- 43.5
- NO moneyline
- +170
- ATL moneyline
- -205
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 36 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Ron Torbert
- Rest
- NO 7 days · ATL 6 days
- Coaches
- Kellen Moore vs Raheem Morris
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.