For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · New Era Field

New York Jets

8

Buffalo BillsWinner

35

BUF -12.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓27°F

Buffalo Bills 35–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, NYJ +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑NYJ ↓
Q1 · 15:00NYJ 0 — BUF 0BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 86%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 15:00NYJ +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
  2. Q1 · 13:41BUF +4% win prob(13:41) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 7 yards (46-K.Smith).
  3. Q1 · 11:03BUF +4% win prob(11:03) 22-R.Davis right end pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (27-M.Moore).
  4. Q1 · 10:25BUF +3% win prob(10:25) 22-R.Davis right guard to NYJ 21 for 9 yards (27-M.Moore; 44-J.Sherwood).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:22BUF Touchdown

    (8:22) 11-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-D.Knox for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 7
  2. Q2 · 11:48BUF Touchdown

    (11:48) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-Ty.Johnson. 26-Ty.Johnson right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 14
  3. Q2 · 5:04BUF Touchdown

    (5:04) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 21
  4. Q3 · 7:52BUF Touchdown

    (7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 29
  5. Q4 · 12:09BUF Touchdown

    (12:09) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 26-Ty.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 35
  6. Q4 · 7:37NYJ Touchdown

    (7:37) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 4-B.Cook pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 8 — BUF 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsBills
Offensive plays4770
Total yards124476 (edge)
Yards per play2.66.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.260.35 (edge)
Success rate34%61% (edge)
Dropback rate53%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.250.72 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.260.05 (edge)
Third downs5/136/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)010 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps931 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

22/29, 259 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.5 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Brady CookQB

11/22, 60 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -19.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Ray DavisRB

21 att, 151 yds, 0 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Khalil HerbertRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Keon ColemanWR

2/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

3/3 for 48 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 2013806:43Touchdown +7
2NYJNYJ 35551:48Punt
3BUFBUF 325351:58Turnover on downs
4NYJNYJ 33441:27Punt
5BUFBUF 1614826:21Touchdown +7
6NYJNYJ 318203:52Turnover on downs
7BUFBUF 496512:53Touchdown +7
8NYJNYJ 2515344:33Punt
9BUFBUF 2230:25End of half
10NYJNYJ 30592:11Turnover on downs
11BUFBUF 4612565:03Touchdown +8
12NYJNYJ 365-41:03Punt
13BUFBUF 328654:29Fumble
14NYJNYJ 3492:14Punt
15BUFBUF 456552:55Touchdown +6
16NYJBUF 4812474:32Touchdown +8
17BUFBUF 2313497:33End of game

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brady Cook11/2260101-6.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Khalil Herbert12423.50-1.3
Kene Nwangwu7182.60-3.4
Brady Cook372.30-0.5
Arian Smith122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Williams5724032%-1.3
John Metchie III3420018%0.8
Quentin Skinner111005%2.3
Khalil Herbert12409%-3.2
Andrew Beck12219%0.3
Kene Nwangwu01005%-0.8
Arian Smith02009%-1.0
Adonai Mitchell030014%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Keidron Smith780.000
Malachi Moore370.000
Tre Brown440.000
Samuel Womack430.001
Jamien Sherwood340.000
Ja'Sir Taylor230.000
Jowon Briggs130.000
Eric Watts220.000
Harrison Phillips220.000
Quincy Williams300.001

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mitchell Trubisky22/2925940022.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ray Davis211517.205.7
Ty Johnson13362.81-4.5
James Cook2157.500.8
Mitchell Trubisky551.00-2.9
Reggie Gilliam242.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keon Coleman2449014%1.9
Dalton Kincaid3348011%2.4
Gabe Davis5741125%5.5
Keleki Latu3331011%5.8
Dawson Knox222417%2.8
Ray Davis222317%2.3
Reggie Gilliam112204%1.3
Ty Johnson222017%4.9
Josh Palmer131011%-1.9
Jackson Hawes11004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dorian Williams250.000
Larry Ogunjobi150.000
Jordan Hancock140.000
Joe Andreessen140.000
Keonta Jenkins320.000
Cam Lewis300.000
Maxwell Hairston210.000
A.J. Epenesa210.001
Sam Franklin Jr.200.000
Javon Solomon200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -12.5
Closing total
39.5
NYJ moneyline
+550
BUF moneyline
-800

Bills closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 43 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
27°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.