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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · New Era Field
8
35
Buffalo Bills 35–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, NYJ +4% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
How the points landed
(8:22) 11-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-D.Knox for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 7(11:48) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-Ty.Johnson. 26-Ty.Johnson right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 14(5:04) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 21(7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 29(12:09) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 26-Ty.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 35(7:37) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 4-B.Cook pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 8 — BUF 35Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jets | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 47 | 70 |
| Total yards | 124 | 476 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.6 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.26 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Success rate | 34% | 61% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 53% | 46% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.25 | 0.72 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 0 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 9 | 31 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
22/29, 259 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.5 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
11/22, 60 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.3 expected points added · -19.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 20 | 13 | 80 | 6:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 35 | 5 | 5 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 32 | 5 | 35 | 1:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | NYJ | NYJ 33 | 4 | 4 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 16 | 14 | 82 | 6:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | NYJ | NYJ 31 | 8 | 20 | 3:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 49 | 6 | 51 | 2:53 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 15 | 34 | 4:33 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 2 | 2 | 3 | 0:25 | End of half | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 5 | 9 | 2:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 46 | 12 | 56 | 5:03 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 36 | 5 | -4 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 32 | 8 | 65 | 4:29 | Fumble | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 3 | 4 | 9 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 45 | 6 | 55 | 2:55 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 16 | NYJ | BUF 48 | 12 | 47 | 4:32 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 23 | 13 | 49 | 7:33 | End of game |
6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 11/22 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Brady Cook | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Williams | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 32% | -1.3 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 18% | 0.8 |
| Quentin Skinner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keidron Smith | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/29 | 259 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 21 | 151 | 7.2 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 43 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.3 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | -3.2 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9% | 0.3 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.8 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | -2.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Watts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 | -4.5 |
| James Cook | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 14% | 1.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 11% | 2.4 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 25% | 5.5 |
| Keleki Latu | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 11% | 5.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 7% | 2.8 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 7% | 2.3 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | 1.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 7% | 4.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | -1.9 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hancock | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keonta Jenkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Andreessen | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Solomon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
