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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on James Cook — 4.1 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
James Cook
Jets
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
27°F
Bills closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 27.
Buffalo Bills 35–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Jets +4.1% win probability on one snap.
4.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dawson KnoxBillsQ1 13:41(13:41) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 7 yards (46-K.Smith).
3.9pts
Ray DavisBillsQ1 11:03(11:03) 22-R.Davis right end pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (27-M.Moore).
3.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 0 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.72 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets143 of 149 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
Swing −4.1 for BillsExpected points +0.83 for BillsThe model had Jets 32 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00NYJ +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
1st · 13:41BUF +4% win prob(13:41) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 7 yards (46-K.Smith).
1st · 11:03BUF +4% win prob(11:03) 22-R.Davis right end pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (27-M.Moore).
1st · 10:25BUF +3% win prob(10:25) 22-R.Davis right guard to NYJ 21 for 9 yards (27-M.Moore; 44-J.Sherwood).
2nd · 14:52BUF +3% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).
2nd · 13:34BUF +3% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to NYJ 23 for 14 yards (39-S.Womack; 46-K.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-46-K.Smith, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
1st · 11:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 17-yard touchdown catch with 8:22 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.35Bills: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.72Bills: +0.72 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.05Bills: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 47 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 59.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 9.4 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 17.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 18 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 80.0% in week 14.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 18.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills16.0%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 59.4%, 32.2 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 2.1 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+7% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:34) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to NYJ 23 for 14 yards (39-S.Womack; 46-K.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-46-K.Smith, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
Q2 13:34 · Bills · 3rd & 20 at NYJ 37 · gained 14 · +3.50 EP · +7.3% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
48%
Yards
596
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.3541%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2467%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2338%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.9150%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0420%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jets0Bills6
Jets0Bills7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 17
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 40
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Jets 34
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets0Bills13
Jets0Bills14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 6
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Bills 49
Jets0Bills20
Jets0Bills21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Jets 2
Punt16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Bills 5
3rd quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 39
Jets0Bills27
Jets0Bills29
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Jets 1
Punt6 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Jets 12
4th quarter32 plays
Jets0Bills35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Jets 6
Jets6Bills35
Jets8Bills35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 2
The period ended14 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Jets 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
