For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on James Cook — 4.1 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 35–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Jets +4.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
James Cook
Jets
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
4.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 0 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.72 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 30 for 10 yards (36-J.Taylor; 30-T.Brown).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 17-yard touchdown catch with 8:22 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Dawson Knox17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Mitchell TrubiskyLead never changed again+70–7Ty Johnson6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Mitchell Trubisky · two-point no good+60–356 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 47 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Bills 6.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate, 59.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 9.4 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 18 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.5 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 18.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-17.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.7 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 46 snaps
Bills-3.6 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jets46.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 30 early downs
Bills41.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Jets28.0%leaned — faked the run · +10.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Bills59.4%off script — faked the run · +32.2 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+2.10× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Jets100.0%off script — went for it · +56.0 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills100.0%leaned — went for it · +38.9 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+1.81× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 55%
Tendencies room →Jets28.1%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills36.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Jets0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills16.0%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 59.4%, 32.2 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 2.1 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 6 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 6
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 6 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
22/29, 259 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.5 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
11/22, 60 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.3 expected points added · -19.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ray Davis banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 28.9 | +3.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 22/29, 259 yd, 4 TD · 5 car, 5 yd |
| Ray DavisRB · Committee Back | 25.4 | +6.5 | 64% | 63% | 7% | 0% | 21 car, 151 yd · 2/2, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 19.6 | −2.3 | 33% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 13 car, 36 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Gabe DavisWR | 15.1 | +2.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +5.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brady CookQB · Starter QB | 9.1 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/22, 60 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | −3.5 | 81% | 78% | 14% | 25% | 2/4, 49 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.7 | 13% | 19% | 11% | 17% | 3/3, 48 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.4 | −0.3 | 52% | 60% | 32% | 40% | 5/7, 24 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 7.2 | +3.1 | 25% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 1/2, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.8 | 68% | 72% | 11% | 4% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −3.4 | 67% | 68% | 9% | 0% | 12 car, 42 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | +0.2 | 71% | 76% | 18% | 16% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Quentin SkinnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.2 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 3.6 | −2.5 | 20% | 22% | 4% | 11% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 22 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 1.8 | −2.6 | 33% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| James CookRB | 1.5 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −6.8 | 84% | 88% | 11% | 3% | 1/3, 1 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 29% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −2.6 | 33% | 32% | 9% | 12% | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 52% | 56% | 14% | 42% | 0/3, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:34) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to NYJ 23 for 14 yards (39-S.Womack; 46-K.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-46-K.Smith, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
Q2 13:34 · Bills · 3rd & 20 at NYJ 37 · gained 14 · +3.50 EP · +7.3% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 149 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Bills6Jets0Bills7Jets0Bills13Jets0Bills14Jets0Bills20Jets0Bills21Jets0Bills27Jets0Bills29Jets0Bills35Jets6Bills35Jets8Bills35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 11/22 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Brady Cook |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Williams | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 32% | −1.3 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keidron Smith | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/29 | 259 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +22.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_NYJ_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 43 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 2.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| 18% |
| +0.8 |
| Quentin Skinner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −3.2 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −2.4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Watts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 21 | 151 | 7.2 | 0 | +5.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 | −4.5 |
| James Cook | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 14% | +1.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 11% | +2.4 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 25% | +5.5 |
| Keleki Latu | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 11% | +5.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 7% | +2.3 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 7% | +4.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | −1.9 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hancock | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keonta Jenkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Andreessen | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Solomon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
