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Seattle Seahawks 13 at San Francisco 49ers 3. Final.
Seahawks -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Seattle Seahawks 13, 49ers 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:27, 4th and 4, on Sam Darnold — 8.7 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:27 · 4th and 4
Sam Darnold
49ers
(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Seattle Seahawks 13–3. Biggest swing: Q1 7:27, 49ers +8.7% win probability on one snap.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zach CharbonnetSeahawksQ1 4:37(4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.5pts
Drake ThomasSeahawksQ4 10:27(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
8.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 9 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks132 of 141 plays carry both curves
(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Swing +8.7 for 49ersExpected points +3.43 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 12 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:27SEA +9% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
4th · 10:27SEA +8% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
1st · 4:37SF +8% win prob(4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:41SEA +7% win prob(9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].
3rd · 3:48SF +7% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end to SEA 44 for 19 yards (94-Y.Gross-Matos).
1st · 11:42SF +6% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to SF 24 for 9 yards (0-R.Green; 48-T.Bethune).
2nd · 12:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Charbonnet's 27-yard rushing touchdown with 4:37 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:37Zach Charbonnet·27-yd TD run27-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd5:23Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+310–0
2nd1:10Eddy Pineiro·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+310–3
4th14:18Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–3
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks8–049ers
363Total yards173
5.7Yards per play4.1
48%Success rate36%
50%Third-down rate22%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays3
21First downs9
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.3649ers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.3949ers: −0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Seahawks: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.2449ers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against 49ers’s 42 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, 49ers 1.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, +8.0 pts, is past their previous high of +5.3 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
42 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
49ers10.0%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.5 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
76Grey ZabelG · Every snap100%69 snaps
61Jalen SundellC · Every snap100%69 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Josh JonesT · Every snap99%68 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time83%57 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
81Eric SaubertTE · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational48%33 snaps
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Rotational42%29 snaps
40Robbie OuztsFB · Rotational30%21 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Situational13%9 snaps
83Dareke YoungWR · Situational12%8 snaps
38Brady RussellFB · Situational6%4 snaps
79Amari KightT · Situational3%2 snaps
30Cam AkersRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Coby BryantFSBryce CabeldueGJared IveyOLBJalen MilroeQBCharles CrossTMason RichmanTNick KallerupTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
Q4 10:27 · 49ers · 2nd & goal at SEA 6 · gained nothing · -4.78 EP · −15.5% win probability
130 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 141 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 130 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 94 yards from the SEA 3 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
141 of 141 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
141
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1652%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0445%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.3361%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.3078%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.2127%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1280%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
141 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
141 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the 49ers 1
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the 49ers 12
Seahawks649ers0
Seahawks749ers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 27
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the 49ers 49
2nd quarter37 plays
No good6 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the 49ers 26
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Seahawks 39
Seahawks1049ers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the 49ers 25
Seahawks1049ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Seahawks 30
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the 49ers 40
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 18
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the 49ers 17
4th quarter38 plays
Seahawks1349ers3
Field goal2 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Seahawks 6
No good20 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the 49ers 3
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 24
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
