2025 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 3, 2026 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SEA -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Seattle Seahawks 13–3. Biggest swing: Q1 7:27, SEA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:27SEA 0 — SF 0SEA ball · 4th & 4SEA 63%

(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:27SEA +9% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Q4 · 10:27SEA +8% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
Q1 · 4:37SF +8% win prob(4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:41SEA +7% win prob(9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:37SEA Touchdown
(4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — SF 0
Q2 · 5:23SEA Field goal
(5:23) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 10 — SF 0
Q2 · 1:10SF Field goal
(1:10) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SEA 10 — SF 3
Q4 · 14:18SEA Field goal
(14:18) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 13 — SF 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	64	42
Total yards	363 (edge)	173
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	48% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	47%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

20/26, 198 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

4.8 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/27, 127 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

16 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

17 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

6/8 for 84 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

4/4 for 36 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 30	13	57	7:37	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 5	4	7	1:31	Punt
3	SEA	SF 35	4	35	1:23	Touchdown +7
4	SF	SF 35	5	8	2:03	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 18	10	58	4:58	Missed field goal
6	SF	SF 37	6	24	2:53	Turnover on downs
7	SEA	SEA 40	9	43	4:16	Field goal +3
8	SF	SF 40	10	30	4:13	Field goal +3
9	SEA	SEA 35	3	3	1:06	End of half
10	SF	SF 12	10	27	4:53	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 37	6	18	3:20	Punt
12	SF	SF 9	4	9	2:16	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 32	11	55	5:16	Field goal +3
14	SF	SF 30	8	64	3:54	Interception
15	SEA	SEA 3	16	94	8:01	Missed field goal
16	SF	SF 20	4	4	0:29	Turnover on downs
17	SEA	SF 24	3	0	1:51	End of game

4 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 94 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a missed field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	20/26	198	0	0	2	4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker III	16	97	6.1	0	2.7
Zach Charbonnet	17	74	4.4	1	-3.3
Sam Darnold	6	9	1.5	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6	8	84	31%	5.9
Kenneth Walker III	4	4	36	15%	2.1
Cooper Kupp	2	3	29	12%	-0.2
Zach Charbonnet	3	4	23	15%	0.7
AJ Barner	2	3	14	12%	-0.7
Eric Saubert	2	3	10	12%	0.0
Rashid Shaheed	1	1	2	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Emmanwori	4	3	0.0	0	0
Drake Thomas	2	3	0.0	1	2
Ernest Jones	2	3	0.0	0	0
Devon Witherspoon	3	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy II	1	3	0.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	2	1	0.0	0	1
Ty Okada	3	0	0.0	0	0
Riq Woolen	1	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Jobe	2	0	0.0	0	1
Jarran Reed	2	0	1.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/27	127	0	1	3	-13.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	23	2.9	-2.2
Brock Purdy	2	21	10.5	0.9
Brian Robinson	2	9	4.5	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	4	6	35	22%	-1.3
Christian McCaffrey	6	7	34	26%	-4.3
George Kittle	5	7	29	26%	-1.4
Demarcus Robinson	3	4	24	15%	1.4
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	5	7%	-3.3
Kendrick Bourne	0	1	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Renardo Green	6	2	0.0	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	5	3	0.0	0
Tatum Bethune	2	5	1.0	1
Upton Stout	4	2	0.0	0
Malik Mustapha	3	2	0.0	0
Sam Okuayinonu	4	0	1.0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	2	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	3	1	0.0	0
CJ West	1	2	0.0	0
Alfred Collins	1	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
SEA moneyline: -148
SF moneyline: +124

Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 16 — under by 31.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: SEA 6 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.