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2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
24
17
Washington Commanders 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:57, WAS +20% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
How the points landed
(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 81-G.Calcaterra for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — PHI 7(9:08) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 7(:05) 16-J.Moody 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 7(6:33) 37-T.Bigsby left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 14(:35) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — PHI 17(9:40) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 87-J.Bates for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 17(2:37) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 24 — PHI 17Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Commanders | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 62 |
| Total yards | 275 | 307 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 5.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.03 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 46% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 44% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.33 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.31 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/11 (edge) | 6/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
21/40, 241 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.2 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
14/22, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.5 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | PHI 32 | 6 | 23 | 2:39 | Punt | |
| 2 | WAS | WAS 15 | 17 | 74 | 9:48 | Missed field goal | |
| 3 | PHI | PHI 20 | 10 | 80 | 3:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | WAS | WAS 35 | 10 | 42 | 4:34 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | PHI | PHI 35 | 9 | 54 | 4:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | WAS | WAS 6 | 5 | 18 | 2:50 | Interception | |
| 7 | PHI | WAS 22 | 4 | 17 | 1:05 | Interception | |
| 8 | WAS | WAS 29 | 5 | 33 | 0:48 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | WAS | WAS 26 | 5 | 2 | 1:13 | Punt | |
| 10 | PHI | PHI 9 | 6 | 20 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 11 | WAS | WAS 33 | 2 | 9 | 0:46 | Fumble | |
| 12 | PHI | WAS 28 | 9 | 28 | 4:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | WAS | WAS 35 | 5 | 3 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 14 | PHI | PHI 27 | 10 | 52 | 4:19 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 35 | 11 | 36 | 5:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | PHI | PHI 35 | 5 | 6 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 17 | WAS | WAS 23 | 10 | 50 | 6:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | PHI | PHI 35 | 9 | 34 | 1:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | WAS | WAS 31 | 4 | 8 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 20 | PHI | PHI 28 | 4 | -7 | 0:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | WAS | PHI 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | End of game |
7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 14/22 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Josh Johnson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 21% | 8.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 26% | -6.2 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reaves | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Wagner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 21/40 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 41 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.6 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 11% | 3.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 21% | -0.7 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Ben Sinnott | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | -1.0 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.4 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 12% | 1.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 24% | -4.6 |
| Darius Cooper | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 15% | 1.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3% | 1.7 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 15% | -0.5 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 9% | 0.3 |
| Britain Covey | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | 0.6 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter II | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Graham | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
