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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 18
It turned at Q3 10:57, 1st and 10 — 19.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:57, Eagles +19.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:57 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:37 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 61 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Eagles’s 62 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Eagles 4.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.8% in week 17 against 34.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-12.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their -4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 61 snaps
Eagles7.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Commanders34.7%leaned — ran early · −17.1 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 49 early downs
Eagles66.7%leaned — passed early · +13.8 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Commanders44.4%leaned — faked the run · +17.6 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles31.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Commanders33.3%leaned — took the kick · −19.0 vs their 52.3%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +33.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Commanders28.9%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Eagles33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Eagles14.8%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
WAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.7%, 17.1 points below their season mean of 51.8% and 1.6 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 11 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 11
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
21/40, 241 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.2 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
14/22, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.5 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Terry McLaurin banked 4.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank BigsbyRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.6 | +1.2 | 59% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 31 yd |
| Josh JohnsonQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 131 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Committee Back | 15.3 | −3.5 | 42% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 16 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 18 yd |
| Tanner McKeeQB · Starter QB | 11.9 | −8.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/40, 241 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +3.1 | 44% | 40% | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | +4.7 | 70% | 82% | 21% | 41% | 4/4, 57 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +4.4 | 59% | 39% | 11% | 0% | 2/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +1.9 | 14% | 16% | 12% | 19% | 3/4, 52 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −0.2 | 77% | 84% | 15% | 9% | 4/5, 30 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.0 | −7.5 | 94% | 96% | 24% | 42% | 3/8, 40 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −2.1 | 84% | 82% | 15% | 21% | 3/5, 33 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 4.1 | −3.8 | 71% | 82% | 26% | 15% | 2 car, 1 yd · 2/5, 20 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.1 | 55% | 56% | 12% | 2% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 3.3 | −1.6 | 41% | 56% | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Featured Receiver | 3.2 | −3.9 | 68% | 82% | 21% | 40% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Committee Back | 2.9 | −9.9 | 36% | 29% | 0% | — | 13 car, 29 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.4 | 55% | 43% | 11% | 0% | 2/2, 3 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 2.1 | +0.8 | 22% | 39% | 5% | 5% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 1.3 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
Q3 10:57 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 42 · gained nothing · -6.03 EP · −18.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Eagles6Commanders0Eagles7Commanders6Eagles7Commanders7Eagles7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Commanders10Eagles7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Commanders10Eagles13Commanders10Eagles14Commanders10Eagles17How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Commanders16Eagles17Commanders17Eagles17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Commanders23Eagles17Commanders24Eagles17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 14/22 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Josh Johnson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 | −3.9 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 21% | +8.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reaves | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 21/40 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −6.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_18_WAS_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 41 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 13 |
| 29 |
| 2.2 |
| 0 |
| −4.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| −6.2 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 11% | +3.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 21% | −0.7 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Ben Sinnott | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Bobby Wagner | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 24% | −4.6 |
| Darius Cooper | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 15% | −0.5 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Britain Covey | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −1.0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter II | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Graham | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
