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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CommandersWashington24
BY 7final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia17
Washington Commanders 24 at Philadelphia Eagles 17. Final.
Eagles -3 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 18
Washington Commanders 24, Eagles 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:57, 1st and 10 — 19.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:57 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
O 38.5 ✓
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 10:57, Eagles +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalyx HuntEaglesQ2 2:00(2:00) 14-J.Johnson pass short right intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at WAS 22. 58-J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (1-D.Samuel).
15.8pts
Tanner McKeeCommandersQ4 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
19.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
Swing +19.6 for EaglesExpected points +6.03 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:57WAS +20% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
4th · 1:21WAS +19% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
2nd · 2:00WAS +16% win prob(2:00) 14-J.Johnson pass short right intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at WAS 22. 58-J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (1-D.Samuel).
2nd · 0:59WAS +15% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 39-J.Reaves at WAS 1. 39-J.Reaves to WAS 29 for 28 yards (83-K.Granson).
1st · 2:36WAS +12% win prob(2:36) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
4th · 2:37PHI +12% win prob(2:37) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:37 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:37Josh Johnson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders5–3Eagles
275Total yards307
4.5Yards per play5.0
46%Success rate44%
55%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
19First downs18
0Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Commanders: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.16Eagles: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.04Eagles: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 61 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Eagles’s 62 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Eagles 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.8% in week 17 against 34.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Eagles14.8%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.7%, 17.1 points below their season mean of 51.8% and 1.6 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Johnson FUMBLES−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
Q3 10:57 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 42 · gained nothing · -6.03 EP · −18.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
46%
Yards
581
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0945%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2976%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1255%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1418%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.200%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to midfield
No good19 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Eagles 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 40
2nd quarter44 plays
Commanders0Eagles6
Commanders0Eagles7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 15
Commanders6Eagles7
Commanders7Eagles7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Eagles 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Commanders 6
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 20
Commanders10Eagles7
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Eagles 38
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 28
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 42
Commanders10Eagles13
Commanders10Eagles14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 2
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 38
Commanders10Eagles17
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Commanders 21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Commanders16Eagles17
Commanders17Eagles17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Commanders23Eagles17
Commanders24Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Eagles 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Commanders 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 39
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -3
Closing total
38.5
Commanders moneyline
+150
Eagles moneyline
-180
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 41 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Commanders 10 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 12:00
PHI +12% win prob
(12:00) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Samuel. PENALTY on PHI-22-M.McWilliams, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play.
4th · 1:58PHI +11% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 2-J.Dotson ran ob at WAS 38 for 16 yards.
