2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -1.5 upsetU 51.5 ✓Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, JAX +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:10BUF 20 — JAX 24BUF ball · 4th & 1JAX 55%

(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as elig

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:10JAX +33% win prob(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
Q4 · 2:27JAX +19% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 18-B.Cooks to JAX 20 for 36 yards (26-An.Johnson).
Q4 · 7:05JAX +18% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington to BUF 25 for 31 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q4 · 0:59BUF +17% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 3-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop (27-T.White) at JAX 37. 24-C.Bishop to JAX 35 for 2 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:00BUF Field goal
(3:00) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — JAX 0
Q2 · 14:18JAX Touchdown
(14:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — JAX 7
Q2 · 5:42BUF Touchdown
(5:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — JAX 7
Q3 · 8:16BUF Field goal
(8:16) 15-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — JAX 7
Q3 · 5:52JAX Field goal
(5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — JAX 10
Q4 · 13:01JAX Touchdown
(13:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-77-A.Harrison was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 13 — JAX 17
Q4 · 9:01BUF Touchdown
(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — JAX 17
Q4 · 4:10JAX Touchdown
(4:10) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — JAX 24
Q4 · 1:05BUF Touchdown
(1:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 27 — JAX 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jaguars
Offensive plays	60	54
Total yards	342	359 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	48%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	7/14	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Jaguars outgained Bills 359–342 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

28/35, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

18/30, 207 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

0.7 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

10 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

15 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

7/12 for 107 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

12/12 for 82 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 34	5	2	1:31	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 6	9	47	5:38	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 20	5	25	2:36	Interception
4	BUF	JAX 33	4	6	2:21	Field goal +3
5	JAX	JAX 35	9	65	3:40	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
7	JAX	BUF 36	6	28	2:46	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 8	11	92	5:42	Touchdown +7
9	JAX	JAX 26	5	4	1:02	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 28	9	27	3:30	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 3	4	61	1:05	Missed field goal
12	BUF	BUF 26	12	49	6:48	Field goal +3
13	JAX	JAX 35	7	40	2:25	Field goal +3
14	BUF	BUF 31	5	-10	1:49	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 38	12	62	6:03	Touchdown +7
16	BUF	BUF 35	11	65	3:59	Touchdown +7
17	JAX	JAX 23	12	72	4:53	Touchdown +7
18	BUF	BUF 34	11	66	2:59	Touchdown +7
19	JAX	JAX 23	2	0	0:10	Interception
20	BUF	JAX 35	2	0	0:54	End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 92 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	28/35	273	1	0	1	9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	15	46	3.1	0	-1.8
Josh Allen	11	33	3.0	2	5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	12	12	82	0	34%	2.6
Brandin Cooks	3	5	58	0	14%	3.3
Keon Coleman	1	1	36	0	3%	2.8
Dawson Knox	3	3	30	0	9%	0.2
Dalton Kincaid	3	5	28	1	14%	1.5
Tyrell Shavers	1	2	14	0	6%	1.3
Gabe Davis	2	3	14	0	9%	1.6
Frank Gore Jr.	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
James Cook	2	3	5	0	9%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	6	2	0.0	1	1
Jordan Hancock	3	3	0.0	0	0
Greg Rousseau	3	2	1.0	0	1
Matt Milano	5	0	0.0	0	1
Christian Benford	3	0	0.0	0	1
Deone Walker	1	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Poyer	2	0	0.0	0	0
Cole Bishop	2	0	0.0	1	1
Dorian Williams	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0.0	0	3

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	18/30	207	3	2	1	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	10	67	6.7	2.7
Bhayshul Tuten	4	51	12.8	3.2
Trevor Lawrence	6	31	5.2	-3.9
LeQuint Allen Jr.	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Parker Washington	2	2	1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Parker Washington	7	12	107	1	40%	-0.8
Travis Etienne	5	5	49	1	17%	4.6
Brian Thomas Jr.	2	2	21	1	7%	3.3
Jakobi Meyers	1	4	12	0	13%	-3.1
LeQuint Allen Jr.	1	1	9	0	3%	0.1
Brenton Strange	2	5	9	0	17%	-1.7
Tim Patrick	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Eric Murray	4	3	0.0
Antonio Johnson	3	3	0.0
Montaric Brown	4	2	0.0
Devin Lloyd	5	1	0.0
Foye Oluokun	3	2	0.0
Travon Walker	3	2	0.0
Andrew Wingard	3	1	0.0
Arik Armstead	2	2	0.0
Josh Hines-Allen	3	1	1.0
DaVon Hamilton	2	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -1.5
Closing total: 51.5
BUF moneyline: +102
JAX moneyline: -122

Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 51 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BUF 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Liam Coen