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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 11, 2026 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Wild Card
It turned at Q4 1:10, 4th and 1, on Josh Allen — 33.4 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:10 · 4th and 1
Josh Allen
Bills
(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
Buffalo Bills 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, Bills +33.4% win probability on one snap.
33.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as elig
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:05 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Jaguars 4.
Jaguars outgained Bills 359-342 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bills3.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 60 snaps
Jaguars1.9 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 81%
Tendencies room →Bills65.9%leaned — passed early · +15.6 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 44 early downs
Jaguars61.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills28.2%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars18.2%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Bills66.7%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Bills33.3%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars35.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills9.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
BUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.9%, 15.6 points above their season mean of 50.3% and 1.4 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
28/35, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/30, 207 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
0.7 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
7/12 for 107 yds, 1 TD
40% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Travis Etienne banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 30.2 | +7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/35, 273 yd, 1 TD · 11 car, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.9 | −1.9 | 71% | 70% | 40% | 50% | 2 car, 2 yd · 7/12, 107 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 22.6 | +9.2 | 54% | 48% | 17% | 2% | 10 car, 67 yd · 5/5, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.2 | +2.0 | 71% | 74% | 34% | 8% | 12/12, 82 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | −6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 207 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 31 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +2.9 | 44% | 54% | 14% | 14% | 3/5, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +4.8 | 77% | 85% | 7% | 7% | 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | −1.1 | 48% | 51% | 14% | 41% | 3/5, 58 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 7.1 | −6.4 | 60% | 41% | 9% | 3% | 15 car, 46 yd · 2/3, 5 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +0.7 | 48% | 44% | 9% | 10% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 5.1 | +3.1 | 29% | 30% | 0% | — | 4 car, 51 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.6 | 43% | 38% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 36 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 3.4 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −9.5 | 88% | 88% | 17% | 18% | 2/5, 9 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.3 | 54% | 38% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −4.8 | 96% | 91% | 13% | 15% | 1/4, 12 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 2.2 | 0.0 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Frank Gore Jr.RB | 1.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | — | 32% | 41% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 27% | 18% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
Q4 1:10 · Bills · 4th & 1 at JAX 11 · gained 10 · +2.65 EP · +23.9% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 92 yards from the BUF 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills3
Jaguars0Bills3Jaguars6Bills3Jaguars7Bills9Jaguars7Bills10Jaguars7Bills13Jaguars7Bills13Jaguars10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bills13Jaguars16Bills13Jaguars17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bills19Jaguars17Bills20Jaguars17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Bills20Jaguars23Bills20Jaguars24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
Bills26Jaguars24Bills27Jaguars24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/35 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 2 | +5.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 12 | 12 | 82 | 0 | 34% | +2.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 14% | +3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Hancock | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/30 | 207 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_19_BUF_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 51 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 3% | +2.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 14% | +1.5 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Frank Gore Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deone Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dorian Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 |
| 67 |
| 6.7 |
| 0 |
| +2.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | −3.9 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 7 | 12 | 107 | 1 | 40% | −0.8 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 17% | +4.6 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 7% | +3.3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −3.1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 17% | −1.7 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Murray | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foye Oluokun | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaVon Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
