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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers181 of 194 plays carry both curves
(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.1 for BearsExpected points +3.72 for BearsThe model had Bears 7 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:48CHI +20% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07GB +18% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love to CHI 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 33. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left.
4th · 1:54CHI +18% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift ran ob at GB 25 for 23 yards (29-X.McKinney).
4th · 1:05CHI +14% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 44 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon).
4th · 4:21CHI +10% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:13GB +10% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-63-R.Walker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 23 - No Play.
4th · 10:12
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DJ Moore's 25-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:06Cairo Santos·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+30–3
1st2:11Christian Watson·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+77–3
2nd6:51Jayden Reed·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+714–3
2nd2:00Romeo Doubs·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+721–3
3rd10:11Cairo Santos·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+321–6
4th13:34Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+321–9
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Packers: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Packers: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.20Bears: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Packers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Bears’s 78 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Bears 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Bears16.7%
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 35.2 points above their season mean of 44.8% and 1.8 times their own 19.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love to−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love to CHI 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 33. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left.
Q4 0:07 · Packers · 3rd & 15 at CHI 28 · gained nothing · -1.95 EP · −27.6% win probability
179 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 189. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 87 yards from the GB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
868
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.2979%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0461%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.6578%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.2145%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0130%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0033%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Packers0Bears3
Field goal17 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Packers 9
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Packers6Bears3
Packers7Bears3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Bears 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Packers 40
Packers13Bears3
Packers14Bears3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Bears 18
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 32
Packers20Bears3
Packers21Bears3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Packers 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Bears 36
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Packers21Bears6
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Packers 11
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Packers 45
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Packers 6
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 22
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 29
4th quarter77 plays
Packers21Bears9
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Packers 24
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers21Bears15
Packers21Bears16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Packers 6
Packers27Bears16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers27Bears22
Packers27Bears24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Packers 8
No good13 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Bears 21
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers27Bears30
Packers27Bears31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Packers 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw10.5 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Bears 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
