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2025 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 10, 2026 · Soldier Field

Green Bay Packers

27

Chicago BearsWinner

31

GB -2.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓32°F

Chicago Bears 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:48, CHI +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 1:48GB 27 — CHI 30CHI ball · 1st & 10GB 50%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:48CHI +20% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:07GB +18% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love to CHI 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 33. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left.
  3. Q4 · 1:54CHI +18% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift ran ob at GB 25 for 23 yards (29-X.McKinney).
  4. Q4 · 1:05CHI +14% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 44 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:06CHI Field goal

    (7:06) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — CHI 3
  2. Q1 · 2:11GB Touchdown

    (2:11) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 6:51GB Touchdown

    (6:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — CHI 3
  4. Q2 · 2:00GB Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — CHI 3
  5. Q3 · 10:11CHI Field goal

    (10:11) 8-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 21 — CHI 6
  6. Q4 · 13:34CHI Field goal

    (13:34) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: GB 21 — CHI 9
  7. Q4 · 10:12CHI Touchdown

    (10:12) 4-D.Swift right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — CHI 16
  8. Q4 · 6:44GB Touchdown

    (6:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 27 — CHI 16
  9. Q4 · 4:21CHI Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — CHI 24
  10. Q4 · 1:48CHI Touchdown

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — CHI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBears
Offensive plays7078
Total yards421447 (edge)
Yards per play6.0 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.22 (edge)0.11
Success rate44% (edge)38%
Dropback rate69%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.15-0.12 (edge)
Third downs6/1510/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)10
First downs gained on snaps2124 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

24/48, 361 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

12.1 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

24/46, 323 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

19 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

13 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Colston LovelandTE

8/15 for 137 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

8/11 for 124 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 13.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 3217597:58Field goal +3
2GBGB 1511854:56Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 309304:43Interception
4GBGB 1311875:37Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 27551:31Turnover on downs
6GBCHI 329323:19Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 356281:24Turnover on downs
8GBGB 376270:32Missed field goal
9GBGB 205-21:07Punt
10CHICHI 378473:46Field goal +3
11GBGB 37581:39Punt
12CHICHI 189615:17Interception
13GBGB 96232:36Punt
14CHIGB 35722:06Field goal +3
15GBGB 40500:51Punt
16CHICHI 348662:30Touchdown +7
17GBGB 468643:32Touchdown +6
18CHICHI 2412832:18Touchdown +8
19GBGB 319481:27Missed field goal
20CHICHI 347661:08Touchdown +7
21GBGB 2812491:43End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love24/4632340118.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs19552.90-4.8
Chris Brooks11616.000.7
Jayden Reed11414.001.0
Jordan Love11111.000.5
Emanuel Wilson133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs811124129%13.0
Matthew Golden4584113%7.8
Jayden Reed4743118%2.6
Christian Watson3736118%4.6
Chris Brooks111103%-0.3
Luke Musgrave12905%0.1
Josh Whyle11703%0.3
Darian Kinnard11603%0.2
Josh Jacobs13308%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper620.001
Evan Williams610.000
Quay Walker330.002
Keisean Nixon420.000
Isaiah McDuffie420.001
Xavier McKinney320.002
Kingsley Enagbare310.000
Jonathan Ford120.000
Lukas Van Ness121.000
Carrington Valentine300.011

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams24/4836122112.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift13544.210.0
Kyle Monangai8273.400.3
Caleb Williams4205.00-1.2
Cole Kmet111.00-0.3
Luther Burden III1-4-4.00-1.2
DJ Moore1-5-5.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Colston Loveland815137033%5.7
DJ Moore6764115%6.9
Rome Odunze2644013%3.7
Luther Burden III3742015%1.0
D'Andre Swift223804%2.9
Kyle Monangai132207%1.2
Olamide Zaccheaus12814%0.6
Durham Smythe12604%-0.2
Cole Kmet02004%-5.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaquan Brisker540.000
Austin Booker331.000
Tremaine Edmunds510.001
Grady Jarrett230.000
Kevin Byard230.000
Nahshon Wright220.001
D'Marco Jackson130.000
Montez Sweat030.001
Dominique Robinson120.000
Jaylon Johnson300.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -2.5
Closing total
45.5
GB moneyline
-135
CHI moneyline
+114

Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
GB 6 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Ben Johnson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.