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2025 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

30

Pittsburgh Steelers

6

HOU -3 ✓U 38.5 ✓32°F

Houston Texans 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 11:34, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 11:34HOU 16 — PIT 6PIT ball · 3rd & 12HOU 74%

(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 3

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 11:34HOU +18% win prob(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 2:10HOU +15% win prob(2:10) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud sacked at PIT 48 for -8 yards (33-J.Sawyer). FUMBLES (33-J.Sawyer), RECOVERED by PIT-94-Y.Black at PIT 44.
  3. Q3 · 0:44PIT +15% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk ran ob at PIT 36 for 46 yards (29-K.Dugger).
  4. Q2 · 6:20HOU +12% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud to HOU 19 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at HOU 19. 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 19 for -4 yards (95-K.Benton). FUMBLES (95-K.Benton) [95-K.Benton], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at HOU 21.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:06PIT Field goal

    (6:06) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — PIT 3
  2. Q2 · 8:34HOU Touchdown

    (8:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — PIT 3
  3. Q2 · 2:00PIT Field goal

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — PIT 6
  4. Q4 · 13:12HOU Field goal

    (13:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — PIT 6
  5. Q4 · 11:34HOU Touchdown

    (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — PIT 6
  6. Q4 · 3:43HOU Touchdown

    (3:43) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — PIT 6
  7. Q4 · 2:52HOU Touchdown

    (2:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at 50. 2-C.Bullock for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 30 — PIT 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansSteelers
Offensive plays6656
Total yards408 (edge)175
Yards per play6.2 (edge)3.1
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.54
Success rate50% (edge)29%
Dropback rate53%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.67
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.28
Third downs10/15 (edge)2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)12
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers32 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.54.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

21/32, 250 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.4 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

17/33, 146 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-26.6 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

19 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

10 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Christian KirkWR

8/9 for 144 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

DK MetcalfWR

2/5 for 42 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 207303:03Punt
2HOUHOU 107453:03Punt
3PITPIT 287442:52Field goal +3
4HOUHOU 268304:00Fumble
5PITPIT 44451:33Punt
6HOUHOU 815927:01Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 385111:31Punt
8HOUHOU 19220:43Fumble
9PITHOU 21844:17Field goal +3
10HOUHOU 2011291:57Punt
11HOUHOU 259614:34Interception
12PITPIT 49284:53Punt
13HOUHOU 30451:51Punt
14PITPIT 24562:13Punt
15HOUHOU 237603:22Field goal +3
16PITPIT 31521:44Defensive touchdown
17PITPIT 338191:54Punt
18HOUHOU 1312845:51Touchdown +7
19PITPIT 29550:59Defensive touchdown
20PITPIT 357212:39End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 92 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud21/322501130.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks191125.914.0
Nick Chubb10484.802.7
Cade Stover144.000.1
C.J. Stroud100.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk89144128%13.5
Jayden Higgins3439013%2.0
Xavier Hutchinson2421013%-2.7
Nico Collins3721022%-1.7
Cade Stover221306%0.7
Dalton Schultz3412013%0.3
Woody Marks01003%-0.2
Jaylin Noel01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o250.000
Jalen Pitre520.000
Kamari Lassiter330.001
Azeez Al-Shaair330.000
Tommy Togiai130.000
Damone Clark310.000
Will Anderson Jr.030.500
Jamal Hill120.000
Calen Bullock300.011
Jaylen Reed120.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers17/33146014-26.6
Mason Rudolph1/120001.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren12433.60-3.7
Kenneth Gainwell6203.30-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf2542016%0.3
Kenneth Gainwell4626019%-3.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling3526016%-1.7
Adam Thielen222506%3.6
Pat Freiermuth1318010%-4.8
Calvin Austin III368019%-1.6
Jaylen Warren11403%-0.4
Jonnu Smith23-1010%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen730.000
Kyle Dugger330.000
Derrick Harmon241.000
T.J. Watt330.000
Chuck Clark330.001
Nick Herbig230.000
Keeanu Benton131.000
James Pierre220.000
Payton Wilson220.001
Jalen Ramsey310.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -3
Closing total
38.5
HOU moneyline
-155
PIT moneyline
+130

Texans closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 36 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
HOU 8 days · PIT 8 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Mike Tomlin