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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 12, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Wild Card
It turned at Q4 11:34, 3rd and 12, on Aaron Rodgers — 18.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:34 · 3rd and 12
Aaron Rodgers
Texans
(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Houston Texans 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 11:34, Texans +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Steelers at 2 of 14 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.54 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 3
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian Kirk's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:34 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Christian Kirk6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. StroudLead never changed again+77–3
Calen Bullock50-yd defence TD50-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · kick no good, short+630–67 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categorySteelers
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 66 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Steelers’s 56 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Steelers 2.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.54.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 28.9%, sat 13.9 points above their season number of 15.0% — they got home by 2.6 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2025 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-5.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 66 snaps
Steelers-3.3 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 79%
Tendencies room →Texans45.1%leaned — ran early · −9.7 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 51 early downs
Steelers56.4%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 41%
Tendencies room →Texans25.7%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers15.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Texans—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.8%.
Steelers60.0%leaned — went for it · +27.4 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 65%
Tendencies room →Texans10.5%leaned — sat back · −11.4 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers45.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Texans28.9%off script — got home · +13.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+2.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Steelers11.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
HOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.9%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 2.6 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
21/32, 250 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
17/33, 146 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-26.6 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected
Receiving · HOU
8/9 for 144 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Christian Kirk banked 16.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.4 | +16.2 | 56% | 66% | 28% | 32% | 8/9, 144 yd, 1 TD |
| Woody MarksRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.2 | +6.6 | 71% | 71% | 3% | 1% | 19 car, 112 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Committee Back | 8.6 | −1.9 | 56% | 66% | 19% | 2% | 6 car, 20 yd · 4/6, 26 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 8.0 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 250 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +0.4 | 46% | 43% | 13% | 15% | 3/4, 39 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −1.4 | 86% | 95% | 16% | 20% | 2/5, 42 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.7 | −2.0 | 46% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 12 car, 43 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −0.8 | 58% | 66% | 16% | 8% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −4.7 | 56% | 74% | 22% | 20% | 3/7, 21 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB | 4.8 | +0.3 | 29% | 29% | 0% | — | 10 car, 48 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.0 | 30% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.7 | 79% | 83% | 13% | 8% | 3/4, 12 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −2.2 | 66% | 69% | 13% | 10% | 2/4, 21 yd |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 3.8 | −5.1 | 61% | 66% | 19% | 37% | 3/6, 8 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.8 | 53% | 34% | 6% | 1% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.1 | 68% | 82% | 10% | 22% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −3.0 | 53% | 37% | 10% | 4% | 2/3, -1 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 1.8 | −9.3 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 17/33, 146 yd, 1 INT |
| Mason RudolphQB | 0.1 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| British BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:34 · Steelers · 3rd & 12 at PIT 43 · lost 10 · -7.76 EP · −20.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 92 yards from the HOU 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans0
Steelers3How the play was built
A trick play, play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Texans6Steelers3Texans7Steelers3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Texans7Steelers6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans10Steelers6How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Texans16Steelers6Texans17Steelers6Texans23Steelers6Texans24Steelers6Texans30Steelers6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 21/32 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 9 | 144 | 1 | 28% | +13.5 |
| Jayden Higgins | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/33 | 146 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −26.6 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_19_HOU_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 36 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 22% | −1.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −2.7 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Hill | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Reed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 16% | +0.3 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 19% | −3.9 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +3.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10% | −4.8 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −1.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Harmon | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
